As promised, here tonight's Technical BTC Update.

Overall, the forecast is well on track. No signs of an end in the BTC rally.
As indicated in the last update, after consolidating between 0.191 $ and 0.173 $ (sideways range), prices broke out to the upside and quickly reached almost 0.2 $, again.

Analysis Nov 1 (chart attached)
1. Long term outlook (no change)
BTC/USD continue the rally, with higher highs and lower lows.
Key long term support is 0.09-0.10$. As long as prices do not close below this level, we are in an uptrend.
A deeper correction to the 0.06 level is then possible. But as long as this level holds, surprises are likely to occur to the upside, and buying “panics” are always possible.

2. Short term update
Next is the breakout above 0.20 $, which, if it occurs, should be accompanied with strong buying pressure and rising volumes.
There is currently still a divergence of volume (down) and prices (up) (see last update), but we know that these conditions can persist for a long time, and prices could rise much more than it seems rational.
If, instead, prices break 0.173, we may still enter a correction with short term targets of 0.13$ (former resistance) and then longterm support of 0.09 – 0.10$.

Next update Wednesday, Nov 3rd .


Of note: I am adding a special update on Gold spot ($) today: After the 1387.6 $ high, prices turned down. Unless this high is exceeded, prices should correct deeper. First targets are 1150 and 1050, which at least will likely spark near term bounces.
Let me know via donating if you like this extension of service.

By the way.. if someone can tell me how to upload ONE file containing more charts, I would be happy to publish more, but I am wasting hours to try getting these files small enough to get under the maximum file size to attach here in this forum 

What about using Google Docs? you can make the charts public and then just link us to the pages. Also, if ever necessary, you can have collaborators work with you on a document/spreadsheet/whatever.

Surely some people are buying a few extra coins instead of paying extra on their mortgage, CC, or whatever. This counts just as much as someone explicitly getting a loan to buy BTC, which I agree is probably not happening.

I'd add though that USD moves to the upside are going to be in the 0-50% range so bitcoin moves are going to swamp USD behavior. Until the dollar goes the other way then it will dominate until we don't think about prices in terms of dollars anymore.

I know I already said it, but I LOVE your analyze S3052, keep the good work =)

Malouin

Thanks a lot! Much appreciated. 

http://www.mtgox.com/code/data/getTrades.php

This will tell you how much at every price, and time too I guess.

A little bit of crunching could make that page give up the $Vol too.

edit: bitcoinwatch is excellent, no need to use that link I guess. http://91.194.85.252/bitcoincharts/

thanks a ton. I will do when I find  a little bit more time

S3052, what is an "hourly close" please?

Obviously a 5 minute spike down at 2:30 isn't different than one at 2:58, so is two hourly closes implied or something?

Honestly, I can't see how it makes much difference whether the price stays down for 45 minutes or for 2:45 on something as thin as mtgox.

Not that it isn't a great market, I just think reading anything from hourly closes is hard considering that whether I check the market before I go to bed or not can change that.