Sorry I have a hard time trying to "predict" micro-movements, since they are completely uninteresting (except from the daytrading point of view which I do admit is the topic of the thread).

Big boys run the casino. Don't buy high, sell low for some "momentum" considerations, since it is all painting of the tape and other tricks.

Buy 100% into bitcoin. Then send 10% of your coins to an exchange of your choice, and always sell at the very highest point, trying to buy back lower. Only reasonable way to trade bitcoin (imho) is to short it. Going speculative long is waste of time. Be all in, and drop 10% when it is going too high (after 20-30% daily move this is pretty much the case, and if you are nimble, even 10% can be traded with grace and ease).

*painting the tape = selling to yourself with high volume after you have moved the price to a direction of your choice, to convince the market that something has happened to warrant a new price.