Confession: I've been out of the game with all my money on gox for a while.  It has all been sold at $140 and upwards.

Unfortunately, I think my speculation on the nature of the bubble burst was off.  This was a major upswing, and I realize the differences now.

Minor upswings ($15.38 in Aug'12) are characterized by (1) not too much press and (2) slower userbase growth.  The nice thing about that is that when the faucet of new funds is turned off, a complete crash does not happen.  It crashed from 15.38 to 7.58 before bouncing, and gradually went up to 13 again.  Overall, pretty stable boom-bust-recovery.

Major upswings are rapid phases of adoption.  Unfortunately, when the fountain of new funds is gone, these seem to burst painfully.  

However, the upswing this time was accompanied by great development of fundamentals (userbase growth, service growth, awareness, interest from VCs + SV + the "mainstream").  In two years, I'm sure the bulls will be winning.  There hasn't actually been too much catastrophically bad news for the Bitcoin economy, in comparison to '11, and this is simply a case of deflated expectations (including my own).  The crash may be painful but this is certainly not going to be the death of Bitcoin, so I think it is very reasonable to wait for the bottom, buy in, and then watch it go to new ATHs

We might have to be a bit patient though.

These are my thoughts exactly, I await the bottom just as I did in 2011 for all those months. I wonder how long it will take this time....

Can't tell if this is a sarcastic comment, considering the thread and subforum.



We're again at 100.0 as I type this. Humans and their love for certain numbers... skewing prices since they learned to count with fingers.

I'm getting really tired from this today, had only 1.5 hour of sleep and concentration is on zero level... been late so many times today it's unbelievable.. shame, some serious money could be made and definitely is made by people who could focus themselves and make good timed moves.

The crash shouldn't take more than 6 months, until the forum shifts into capitulation mode (a-la Oct'11), at which point we're going to see slow, steady growth for a while, from whatever price the bottom is.

It may have taken a long time to climb back to 31.91 or whatever the previous ATH was, but the growth began in Nov'11.

So suggesting that he get out of his position because he's blinded by his "marriage" isn't telling him what to do? It's clear from the context.

Guys, let's please stop turning on ourselves. No one is happy with the price falling (well, maybe a bear or two out there) but let's not turn it into a grudge match.

Eat a donut or something, get your blood sugars up.

This surprises me (and kinda disappoints me )


How do you know where the bottom is? This might be it, then again so might $10. The thing is speculating on pricing in a market is a suckers game. Sure, by selling now and buying in lower you might make a few bucks but if it never goes down again you lose all the upside. This is something that feels profitable (like the Martingale gambling "system") but isn't because many small gains are offset by a gigantic loss in opportunity-cost a small percentage of the time.

I confess I sold a few BTC during the rapid rise in March but that was only a small portion of my holdings and I already regret it. The only speculation I make, have made and continue to make is that Bitcoin will fulfill at least on of the many possible niches available to it long-term. If this is true it's already undervalued at any of the prices it has ever traded at to date. (and of course the speculation that price will approach the actual value during my life-time but that's even a speculation one makes in pure value investments).

Pretty brutal.

my guess : down to 25 within a month, then up to 3k within 2 years !