You wouldn't believe how I hope for that. The constant bombardment by bear talk made me reluctant to restock after localbitcoins Sells, so I'm sitting on this smelly pile of euro cash. A drop to 50 or even 30 would be an elegant opportunity to get rid of that.
However, I don't believe in it. This is not 2011.
I've come to the same opinion and have very little hope for $30 to be reached as I realized recently that even in 2011 the bottom ($2) was twice as high as the previous top before the bubble ($1). Twice as high as the top before the bubble ($30) would be $60 now but since $60 has been touched twice already I think chances are 50/50 it won't happen again. I realize this is contradictory to the
bubble collapse theory which points to $40 only to be reached in a few months, as SlipperySlope explains so well. But he too is open to a reflating of the bubble before it deflates fully.
The gox exodus doesn't explain the strong buying happening on bitstamp. Someone wants coins really bad there and I highly doubt this to be arbitrageurs as the risk seems too high for their fiat stuck on gox. Is it just a pump and dumper or is it the rich taking a small position? I'm betting on the latter as all gates are open for them now. Bitcoin has proven to survive the 2011 depression, and the recent bubble gave bitcoin mainstream attention and above all legal approval from different government institutions. The price halving from the top is likely enough for them to take a small position already 'just in case it doesn't drop further'.
Impaler, I think it was, also gave some good counterarguments one must look at volume and not time to see whether the deflating of the bubble is over. Based on volume it is. Also he confirmed how the rich are able to absorb more price volatitlity. Indeed, who cares if it's only a small percentage of your capital that you buy at $100 or $50 if the potential of it is to tenfold in 2-3 years? Most important is to take the small exposure, and not be left out.
I think it's time to become bullish again, though I certainly might be proven wrong.
Great post rationalspeculator!
Still a 50% chance that it will go down, and a 50% chance that it will go up, is NOT a good speculation. Be careful. Better to speculate also on gold and silver right now since there at least chances are higher it will go up rather than down, that's a good speculation. Always keep a position in bitcoin though since long term it's still the best speculation ever. Current exposure of my portfolio to bitcoin 20% and 5% cash ready on exchange to buy on corrections. Gold & silver also 25%.
