Not a bad point, even though when we are in the midst of a cycle, we are frequently attempting to gauge where we are going, so the point remains uncertain regarding where we are going and how high that might be (or is the UP over), until retrospectively. Surely, similar assessments can be made in terms of either tops or bottoms, so if we might seem to be heading up, then there frequently are going to be questions regarding whether any correction might be short-lived or longer in term, and surely questions regarding how far down it might go..
Remember December 3rd had a bottom of $41,967 (which was 39% from the $69k top on November 9) - however, it appears that we may well be attempting to revisit that $42k area and to see whether support will hold there... and surely we never did get too much of a bounce back from that $41,967 bottom - if we might call $52k-ish a bounce back that surely was still around 24% higher than the $42k bottom.
So maybe whether we are measuring bottoms to bottoms, tops to tops, or bottoms to top would depend upon what we are trying to analyze and assess.
I would hate to believe that the ATH of $69k is "in" for this cycle, even though it is possible. We are going to have to see how far down we go, I suppose, and then surely figure out if the price might be staying down or is there any recovery in this part of where-ever we are at. I suppose that if some time soon, if we do not continue UP then I might well be cornered into fleshing out some of my downside scenarios (which I prefer not to do, but I will do whatever seems feasible to do in terms of what seem to be decent probabilities regarding where we might be going).
By the way, despite Dave the Wave's seeming denigration of looking at bottom to top, I think that there are a lot of us who have used them to get some ideas about where we might be going in terms of 4-year cycles... and surely, I am not so much into looking at the exact bottom spikes, but instead getting some ideas of foundation bouncing off points... so in 2015 we had the ballpark of $250-ish as our bouncing off point, and I have been tentatively considering 2019 to have around a $4,200 as our bouncing off point, and of course, subsequent BTC price actions and behaviors can end up causing changes in how to view bounding off points and whether some kind of new one had been created.. and the September 2020 bouncing off point of around $10k seems quite useful, even though Dave may well want to proclaim that it is measuring bottoms to tops or some other way of giving less value to what is being attempted to be illustrated by where we came from and where we might be going.
Another point that we should attempt to recognize is that our lovey-dovey 4-year cycle is a framework that should not necessarily be strict in its chronologizing terms, even if it remains amongst the stronger of influential factors that help to motivate attempts to figure out where we came from and where we might be going.
