You seem to be saying something similar to me, at least in terms of not really knowing which way the BTC price is going to go based on the data.. and in that regard, a certain amount of time above certain price thresholds is needed to gain confidence... I currently consider that to be around $46k.. but that is surely a kind of SOMA approximation from my perspective about how far away the BTC price is getting above the current $32,951 bottom... and for sure, even if the odds that the bottom being in goes from 45% to 70% (and I would not claim that the odds are going that high but maybe instead from 45% to 54% or something like that), there would still be 30% odds that the bottom ends up NOT being in, even though pretty damned high levels of confidence had been achieved by going and staying above $46k (for example) for a day...

In other words, the lower odd scenarios should never be completely ruled out, even when they start to get low in terms of percentages, yet at the same time, I do not spend a whole hell of a lot of my brainpower or finances preparing for scenarios that I perceive to be less than 10% odds, and some diptwats seem to be spending considerable time preparing for scenarios that seem to have less than 2% odds from my perspective and I presume that they are assigning higher odds to such scenarios that I consider to be highly unlikely otherwise those people are even harder to relate to and from my perspective seemingly more detached from reality than what is reasonable.

Over 45 and a little above the lower boundary of normal weight.


Thanks for the tip! Just by luck, i got a small bottle of bio peppermint oil from a business partner of my wife, two weeks ago.
Tomorrow my order of liponic acid 300mg pills should arrive too, which helps with neuro-regeneration.


Hope so. It's definitely a tricky little beast.


Thanks. I got no oxymeter and i had no problems with breathing, but i also supported the lungs with NAC 3x250mg which makes you breathe very easily. It's popular in the athletics/sport scene to extend workouts.



The virus is found pretty often in various tissues, many weeks after initial infection. Antivirals work most of the time, or a vaccine shot, but the latter you'd get six months after infection, so there's half a year of waiting while suffering diffuse symptoms. The most promising remedy is BC007, which is currently in clinical trial phase and works like a charm for ME/CFS and Long Covid. Both have been found to activate auto-antibodies which are the reason for the symptoms, mainly blocking blood flow in small blood vessels in random organs.


The other thread is about the vaxx/antivaxx/conspiracy discussion.



Whatever background, or network... left, right, pastafarian... you name it, when it comes to gain or keep control, the "leaders" are trying hard, by framing and manipulating. Trudeaus current reframing plot is "honor the brave people that got vaxxed to end the pandemic, because the government 'owes' them to get the rest of the nation to be vaxxed via the mandate". It's the same here in little shithole country, but the reasoning is falling apart with omicron.
Now the governmenr is trying to defend the mandate "to be prepared for the next wave", of which nobody knows how deadly it will be (see the fear mongering, again?).
Sane virologists are muted out of the discussion. I can see the same happening in Canada in the next few weeks and Trudeau knows he overdid the contracted vaccine orders for "his country" by magnitudes. I saw a statistic, that Canada pre-ordered 9.5 doses of vaccines for every citizen. Fucking Justin has locked himself, tactically, so he has no other chance than to push his mandate circus with force.
His whole rethorics sound full of desperation to me.

NWO commies EMERGENCY ORDER threaten locking truckers bank accounts thus BITCOIN revolution sparked =D HONK HONK WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

Does not look similar to me..,. hahahahaha

but what do I know?


Mia... you seem to be getting overly analytical of macro events in your attempt to figure out where bitcoin is and where bitcoin might be going.

Surely in the short to medium term BTC prices can well be correlated with a lot of macro factors, but it seems that the people who have done quite well in bitcoin, have focused upon themselves and their own reasonable and prudent abilities to establish a bitcoin stash and to increase their stash no matter which way the BTC price goes in the short term.  Surely you have been around the forum for nearly 6 years, so you could have been quite well off by following such a strategy.. and surely a quick look at your post history, it seems that you may have continued to have a lot of reservations about bitcoin and distractions into various shitcoins... and other bullshit since you have been a member of the forum.

My own personal investing into bitcoin started in late 2013, but surely I would not proclaim that the first 3 years were easy because much of that time my earliest BTC purchases were not in profits, and even my whole BTC portfolio was questionable in terms of it having had been in the negative for most of that time... but I persisted with DCA investing.. especially during those first three years... I did supplement with buying on dips and lump sum investing too.. but many of the buying on dips were not the dips of the dips, and even the lump sum investing suffered similar fates of witnessing the BTC price dropping lower even after I had made decently-sized.. purchases that would have been much better to wait a bit longer.

So for example, in late 2014 (October/November/December), I decided to get up to my target investment into BTC around $400, and I likely even got some BTC in the $380s too.. so i was pretty sure that the bottom was in... but of course, we know what happened in late December 2014.. and then persisted for much of 2015.. in which the BTC price came close to halfing from there.. well it dropped down to $150-ish for short periods and was stuck around $230 to $250 for a considerable amount of time.... so that was kind of depressing to see that I had done various lump sums around $400 when i would have had lots of opportunities to buy those same BTC in the lower $200s through the next 8-10 months.... fuck.

Even though 2015 ended up being a stressful period for me, my level of investment into bitcoin did not go so far as to cause me to have to sell any BTC during that time, and I was able to continue DCA'ing during 2015 even though I had front-loaded in 2014.  Sure we can monday morning quarter-back how I approached the whole matter, but really I cannot see any reasonably better practice that might have had its own risks of causing me to fuck around too much rather than just emphasizing my own ongoing BTC accumulation within my budget.

Currently, bitcoin seems to be a much better investment with more certainty than it was in 2013-2015... even though the upside potential has been shrunken over the years.. .. and in that regard, it seems that DCA remains amongst the best of practices.

Just think if you have been DCA'ing into BTC for the past 6 years at $100 per week, you would currently be at around 13 BTC.. Of course, if your BTC portfolio is not very large right now, it may be nearly impossible to ever get back to being able to get 13 BTC, but surely there are ways to be ongoingly assertive in terms of getting decent stake into BTC in order that you feel sufficiently prepared for UP.. and maybe also keeping a decent amount of dry powder available so that you are prepared to both buy on dips and just continue DCA'ing into BTC no matter what the cost.. and to take some of those "what ifs" blah blah blah out of your way of thinking about the whole matter.

Some people get too worried that they might be able to get more if the BTC price drops, and from the perspective of several of us longer term BTC accumulators in the WO thread especially, those worries about the various "what ifs" seems like pretty BIG so whats because if you continue to accumulate BTC, it is likely that one or two cycles down the road, you will find that your ongoing persistence in accumulating BTC ended up paying off and kept you in action rather than paralyzed by various "what if" thinking.

Investing into bitcoin 4-10 years or longer, is a good mental start, and of course if your timeline is shorter, then you might need to reconsider aspects of your approach, while at the same time considering various aspects of your own situation to be able to tailor your BTC accumulation strategy such as your cashflow, your other investments, your timeline, your view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, your risk tolerance, your time, skills and abilities to plan, learn and tweak along the way which may involving reallocating or trading or the use of various financial instruments such as leverage, margin or options.. and surely, I am not asserting that it is a good idea to use more sophisticated BTC portfolio management until working out your own personal basics and targets first.

The bounds are quite fluid, i'd say. These topics are hard to separate for the reason you specified, too.
As i'm more prone to off-topicness myself, i'd welcome the least strict approach.

I suppose that largely when I say "understanding where we were" or "where we are" or even "where we might be going", I am largely referring to a larger context.

Sure, we have short term dynamics that need to be overcome, but if we zoom out to a larger context, many of us likely appreciate that there is a lot of underlying bitcoin dynamics that are not captured by short-term charts and short-term behaviors.. ... so in that regard, I do not give too many shits about short term analysis and getting into any kinds of details to attempt to predict what might happen.., will we get over $46k or not?  things like that..   We will see once it happens, and part of my point is merely that it feels quite a bit more comfortable to be further away (further up) from the most recent local bottom, than it feels to be within striking distance of such bottom... volume comes or not.. I give few shits.. because we have seen price rises that happen on large volume and low volume.. so sometimes there just is not enough ability to keep pushing the price down.. and BTC price just starts to trickle up whether large volume is involved or not.


You can analyze lines to your heart's content.. .I give few shits... nothing personal.

At this time, I am personally not going to feel more comfortable about the bottom of $32,951 being in until we get above $46k for about a day or more... and sure, I might change my tune, and maybe I am a bit random or SOMA in my consideration of that number, but I consider my price point to be as good as the $44k line.. because we have already been at $44k and $45k and even we were nearly at $46k for a short period of time..... so sure.. maybe we could already say that the bottom is in or whatever, but $44k still seems like a lot of noise to me.. give me more, moar, MOAR.. and sure it is ONLY a couple thousand.. but the fact that we were so close to $46k about 5 days ago.. gives me more confidence that it would be better to get above such seemingly random price point... before my confidence that the bottom is in goes up from 45% to 53.46295%  or whatever happens to be my current feeling about the matter.

Another thing is that in around July-ish, I was using $46k as my price-point at that time too.... .and I am not sure why I am gravitating to $46k again, but the passage of time, does seem to allow for $46k to be used again, even though our local bottom this time around of $32,951 is more than $4k higher than our summer 2021 bottom of $28,600-ish. 

Call me a turd.. but I don't get too many pleasures from getting too caught up in various short-term predictions based on various squiggly lines, even though I do tend to merit your posts for sharing that kind of information.. for sure, taken with a grain of salt.. and not too much weight given to them.. .. and if you start to argue to attempt to give them more importance than they likely deserve then you are likely going to find me fight back with such proclamations, even if you may have made some decent points about potential short-term noise, including but not limited to resistance/support levels.

@jjg...you got it ass-backwards, as usual.
I was the OP who gave these numbers (46K, 46-52(5)K, above 61K no-man land).
YOU are the follower aka copy-cat.

Most Canadians do not approve of invoking the Emergency Act. Most I've talked to think they went too far.

75% of Canadians think the idiot truckers should go home.

They made their point. Sure they had some public sympathy at the start when it was still a peaceful protest. After they disrupted a major city making thousands of people's lives miserable, then blocked international trade costing billions of dollars, support quickly dwindled.

Once you've gotten the message (or given it), hang up the phone.
____

Don't believe everything you see in the mainstream social media. There are two sides to every story.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/covid-19-counter-protest-trucker-protest-1.6349936