As the trend continues to be down since the ATH, you have to wonder if we will see the return to $10K that was the accumulation period before the last big jump. Billionaires are buying in and fighting the cyclical trend, but they appear to be losing. With the purchases between Do Kwon and Michael Saylor, I thought wed be over $50K by now. If those two werent buying, we may already be at $10K. Id be hesitant to make any moves trading one way or the other here, but I think it would be unwise to assume we cant see a prolonged price decrease for potentially the next year or two that takes us to test the last held support levels.
2 years? it would be up to the halving, which has not been a historical trend.
10K? it is theoretically possible, i guess, but for that to happen, many 'bad' things would have to happen.
Like, S&P 500 at 1000-1500. Can it get there? Sure, it can in a 2008 repeat. Likely? Not really.
I tend to compare current situation with the 70ies.
During that time, interest rates went up and stocks were in a sine wave with bottoms roughly half of the tops (Dow 1000 to 600) while inflation raged, so inflation adjusted returns were roughly minus 64% from 1971 to 1982.
Check both inflation adjusted and not-inflation-adjusted versions here (the fluctuation between 600 and 1000 is visible only on not-inflation adjusted):
https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chartTo conclude, since bitcoin is more like gold and not stonks (and the gold was up in the 70ies), it is unlikely to trip that low.
As far as $22K-sure, it is possible, if we are in the bear market and not in a gigantic flat (between 30 and 60K).
Future will show, but my personal opinion is the 30-60K band/flat.
