crash the market down to $20-$19k, and I think it's going to be retested again.
I don't see this happening. Hearing talk of Saylor being margin called at $21k, and it's not clear to me how/why we would drop that low.
Strange times to be sure.
Well, it is starting to feel as if the 100-week moving average is more likely to be tested, and even that it is inevitably going to be breached, and the 100-week moving average is at $35k.
We need to consider the various support levels one at a time before garnering up too much confidence that the $20k price area is going to be reached or tested.. Perhaps $20k is the new $10k that had been the wet dreams of many of the bitcoin naysayers and the pie in the sky negative Nancies.
By the way, even if we do end up transitioning into a bear market (or we had already been in a bear market, but just did not know it),
which I am going to concede that so much testing of the 100-week moving average is surely giving credence to that possible conclusion, we still need to consider that the 200-week moving average does not tend to get breached even in the worst of times... at least not so far in bitcoin's history..
but then again, bitcoin is ONLY a 13 year asset (with probably ONLY about 10 years of somewhat established and somewhat publicly accessible markets).
In any event, the 200-week moving average is currently at nearly $21,700 and continues to move up so long as BTC spot price remains above that 200-WMA price point. In that regard, if the BTC spot price were to expeditiously crash down to $20k, then that would already be a spike that would be approaching 10% lower than the current 20-WMA price point. I will not argue that such a possibly imminent (or soon in the near future) crash down to $20k would NOT be possible
(because almost anything is surely possible), but a crash to such an extreme level that would be currently 10% below the 200-WMA comes off as a real hard to achieve event.. in other words highly improbable.
The other kind of crash scenario would be a slower kind of crash, rather than an immediate crash, and since the 200-WMA continues to move up so long as the BTC spot price is above it, the lowest level that it could plausibly crash continues to move up too.. so if $20k comes off as highly improbably for a hypothetical imminent BTC price crash, then with that same logic, even some kind of BTC spot price crash to a range like $22k to $24k should come off as similarly implausible if such supposed crashening might be projected to take 1-2 months or longer to get down to the lowest of possible kinds of anticipated crash levels.
Regarding Saylor being margin called at $21k, I believe that Saylor had answered a hypothetical question, and I have not heard exactly what Saylor said - but I am pretty sure I understand the scenario that had been presented to him, which is if he (MSTR) did not do anything, then at what level would the BTC price have to drop before his current position were to start to get margin called, and Saylor answered that a price of $21k would start to trigger a margin call for about 20k of the company's BTC (which is about 15% of their total BTC stash 0f 130k BTC). Think about the pie in the sky presumption of the question, that says if Saylor/MSTR would not do anything, and there are several things that he/MSTR could do, including but not limited to adding more collateral. Many of us appreciate that getting margin called does not tend to be a good thing because it causes a forced selling at a time that usually ends up NOT favoring the one who ended up getting margin called - and that is really a pie in the sky chance to happen to someone like Saylor or his company.
