The elevated long leverage mixed with the overhanging ETH locked in 2.0 and the mtgox coins are still keeping this market down. The support at $28K is looking more and more exhausted as it continues to be tested. I think there's a strong likelihood that the price will retest the recent lows in the $26K range. Hopefully that will liquidate some of the long leverage and bring the market into a healthier position to begin building support for the next wave of BTC to crash down onto it.
Interesting, but I interpret the current situation in exactly the opposite way. Never ever in the history of
BTCitcoin a dump of eth has caused a dump of
BTC. Then why should it happen now? It makes no sense. Besides, in August eth will probably switch to POS, meaning that the issuance of eth will be reduced significantly, hence less dump. Regarding Mtgox coins, I haven't seen any news about this event for months. I doubt that there is any reliable new information, except fake news. This still can go for years and it is improbable to think that 100K
BTCitcoins will be released and dumped at once like terra's flop. This will happen eventually in small numers and won't affect the market.
Of course, FUD including mtgox, WW3, new pandemics, etc. can do a temporarily harm to the price, but this has always been that way. This is what we call a black swan event - not related to the market dynamics in any way.
And finally about the 28K support. When the asset is oversold it is the sellers who are exhausted, not the buyers. Remember that
BTCitcoin supply is limited - may be only 2-3 million coins are liquid, the remaining is in cold storage and not likely to be sold under 100K, let alone at these low prices. The volume in the last months on all exchanges is near this number, so I don't expect anything dramatic to happen. According to Glassnode stats most of the sold coins are coming from the new investors with less that 1 year coins who realized their loss, the so called short term hodlers (STH) capitulation. To be precise, Glassnode calls STH those who posses coins less than 6 months old, but we can safely extend this term to less that 1 year old coins. In this way, may be less than 1% are sold by LTH in the last 6 months. LTH are known to sell only for goods and estate, not for fiat in the banks. It is pity that almost all STH failed, but this is only their fault.
BTCitcoin is not get-quickly-rich shitcoin and anyone who treats it like this will be burned.
The only thing that delays the recovery is the fact that we have 9 consecutive red weeks. And nobody wants to buy big numbers until there is at least 2-3 green weeks signalling the possible bottom. So, most peeps are just waiting for this red thingy to end to start investing again. Judging by the lack of volume in leveraged longs on all exchanges except BFX, I think this red trend will either end this week or in 1-2 weeks max. Speaking of BFX longs, they haven't been an issue for the last years. BFX traders are quite experienced and they don't gamble as much as the n00bs in Binance, Bitmex, etc. I've seen many crashes 40%+ in the last 5 years, and very few longs were liquidated in BFX, which means they are better funded or low leveraged.
