As I see it one of the main problems with all the "models" *and* interpretation/expectation of models is they tend to be biased to various schelling points and oversimplification of formulas:

2x per year (has never actually happened exactly, right?)
The market cap of gold (why?),
Stock to flow (as if the only thing that matters is supply)
Some proprietary log curve or two (yeah... because it's a little complicated this simple formula will be righter!)
And my fav so far:  100k by the end of December! (TWO schelling points in one!)
Supercycle! (just picking on myself... based on greed, and sort of an anti-model really.)

Oh, and there is one more (for THIS list)... but this one is part of the holy choirbook, so people might not like to call it a broken model "The four year cycle".  This one is at least supported by some fairly strong design forces.  But it still only takes into account a limited number of extremely important things.  Ignoring completely things like the price of electricity, the proliferation of mining, the reaction of governments, and so on.  And I have to also point out that it has nothing to do with "four years" but we humans like to call it something we can easily relate to.

And ALL OF THIS exists in the extremely long shadow of the world macroeconomic condition and the strength of the worlds unit of account, the US DOLLAR.

Whatever your model... it will be instantly distorted by what happens with the mighty $$$.  And the price of important commodities like food and power in THAT asset.

And while we are on THAT topic... Food and Power.  We are currently watching an effort unfold by supragovernmental forces to take control of the food supply and energy creation in The Ukraine, The Netherlands, The Canada (I don't see why .ca can't have an article too!), The New Zealand, and so on.

In my opinion... gone are the simple days when we could predict shit, really.   But Bitcoin is still the best thing going for value storage, and most likely growth depending on your time horizon.

Have a nice Friday WO!

In 1933, the manufacture, importation and sale of alcohol was still forbidden in the USA and had been for 13 years.  It would have taken many years for the brewing industry to recover after that so the price of illegal beer in that year can't be used to indicate the results of inflation today.  Also, fucking nobody on this side of the Atlantic ever bought 10 beer.  If you have 2 or 3 friends over to help you drink it, it can't be divided evenly which results in unnecessary arguments, feats of strength and ultimately fist fights over the last beer.  This is why it is sold conveniently in multiples of 6 or in kegs.  Only a barbarian would buy 10 beer; f&@#in' savages.

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 Wow.  The imagery is satanic.