It looks to me someone tries to defend a massive short position and doing everything possible to hammer the price each time it pops up above 20K. May be it is related to companies like terra, 3ac, celcius, etc. who are ponzis covered up as arbitrage trading firms. And in the bottom of this complex and shady trading is Greyscale, with there insane negative premium (-32%). Purpose ETF is also dumping hard and also involved in the ponzi scheme.
They all feed with the imbecile gamblers, who keep opening high leverage longs. They've lost so much money so far, yet they continue doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results - the definition of stupidity! Probably tens of billions $ lost in the last 2 years. Currently in Binance there are 1.9bil longs, compared to the average of 1.2bil. Clearly they expect a return above 20K to 24K perhaps. But, there is a catch! During the bear markets the up movement almost always starts after a sudden dip liquidating the leveraged longs. So there is a ~50% chance of going down and ~50% of going up but after a short and steep dip. In other words, they are betting on <1% probability of success. Well done, you are pros! Hopefully this situation will be resolved soon and the demand will return. 20K is sooo low, nothing but heavy manipulation can explain it. Even 40-50K is not a fair price! May be not 100K yet, but I think 60K would correspond best with the increase of demand in the recent years.
The market actually seems reluctant to go much lower at this time. But since the Luna debacle we know that huge shit can happen really quickly.
Here is my worst case short-term scenario:
I mentioned it before but these big shorters might be speculating on time. They would just need to keep the price down until the GOX coins get released.
Many, at least some of these coins
will be sold disregarding the price. And the big shorters might wanna use that timing to enforce a liquidation dump, because it will scare others into selling, too. If they get the price low enough they could even liquidate the remaining lender companies and totally crush the market...
On top of it, and at the same time, Meth is undergoing it's transition
to a woman from POW to POS, and that will open doors to a bunch of other possible fuckeries... (It could drag the market down even further or Meth might get pushed up against BTC, or both in that order)
So yeah this is my doom scenario... Don't get mad on me JJG.... it's just some brainstorming on what fuckery could happen short term.
I'm bullish as always, my coins willl stay in storage like they always do, and I will watch and eat popcorn (which is a good absorber for the possible gastric acid overflow)
If I don't take a possible GOX and Trans-Meth debacle into account, I would say soma the bottom is in..
Regarding a fair price: I feel 50k is absolutely adequate, even cheap. It's actually the same price the original stock to flow model predicts (100k was the newer one)
