Yes, but I think that I am disliking 2x per year because it is seemingly overly optimistic, so from my point of view it is not a very accurate depiction of reality, even though we can find examples of some folks who invested in bitcoin in early days and perhaps their average cost per BTC is quite low, and each year if we double the price, their returns or "on track"..
... If I would have gotten into bitcoin at $100 in mid 2013, then even 2x per year becomes difficult to sustain because it looks like this:
2014 $200
2015 $400
2016 $800
2017 $1,600
2018 $3,200
2019 $6,400
2020 $12,800
2021 $25,600
2022 $51,200
2023 $102,400
Agreed and this is why I do not like when people refer to the history of doubling and we are due for another double event but I disagree because of the reasons you say. Look at where we are today hitting resistance around $25000 and being able to push past that. It would be insane to think that in 2024 we are going to hit $200000. I guess the only problem we have is 2024 probably will see a big increase because of the halving but halving are not going to be here forever and I still think expecting btc to double every time we hit a halving is unsustainable.
I hate to be too concrete about any of this because there are ways to attempt to frame the question of doubling every year in such a way to appear to be correct, and surely doubling every halvening (would be a doubling every 4 years) which seems way more sustainable (and even in line with the substance of the code at least in regards to the new supply), but there are other things going on beyond the new supply getting cut in half every 4 years and then eventually going to sub satoshis, in around 2140, which people have theorized to be essentially zero.
Even if we were to use Popkon6's starting point of $0.26 in 2010 as our starting point, we are still going to get to a point in which 2x every year just starts to seem ridiculous, even if assertions can be made that we ONLY have about 1% of the world's population in bitcoin, but even from my own perspective, I consider the current addressable value to be around $1 quadrillion, which would get us to around $50 million per BTC, and surely there are some folks who believe that the addressable value will increase because bitcoin systems will increase ways that value can be created. .just like the wheel increased the ways that value could be created and electricity increased the ways that value could be created. but still we going to continue to double every year after a certain BTC price point?
By the way, for ease of reference, here would be the doubling of BTC price each year by using the projection that starts with Popkon6's $0.26 in 2010.
2011 $0.52
2012 $1.04
2013 $2.08
2014 $4.16
2015 $8.32
2016 $16.64
2017 $33.28
2018 $66.56
2019 $133.12
2020 $266.24
2021 $532.48
2022 $1,064.96
2023 $2,129.92
2024 $4,259.84
2025 $8,519.68
So, if we start from $.26 in 2010, we still have a lot of cushion to work with, and it seems to me that a lot of the 2x per year theorists are merely working backwards and then trying to make whatever numbers seem to make sense.. so I still don't like that kind of a straight line assessment because in reality, we are likely to have greater percentage rises in the beginning of the adoption curve and then a tapering off of the curve.
So those dumbass claims are wanting us to start back in 2010 (at below $1), 2011 (at $2) or 2012 (at below $10) to make the 2x per year to be sustainable up until now, but it is not likely going to be sustainable into the future, and also it is not fucking ridiculous even if it is true on paper for those people who got in at those earlier bitcoin hardly has a price prices.
I understand what you are saying you are not saying that it is easy to double small investments and not large ones but the lower btc was the more possibility of it doubling and now we are reaching xxxxxx numbers it is much harder to achieve. I agree with that I think I misunderstood what you were saying in the previous post.
Surely, I am not expressing myself very well - even though my failure to express myself very well has not stopped me, yet.
I think that somehow the message is still getting across to the extent that my opinion matters anyhow. I am talking about math
(and perhaps science, too?) without really employing the proper mathematical frameworks. For sure, in any particular year or set of years, we can have a kind of expectation of returns that ends up getting met, including that it is still possible to get a 2x to 100x return (price increase) in bitcoin over any 1 or 2 year period.. because sometimes there can be front running of the BTC price and also irrational exuberance (and perhaps other macro factors) could end up influencing such short term exponentially UPpity performances of the BTC price. .. and the extent to which any of that would be sustainable or the extent to which bitcoin prices might get stuck within a new price band is still to be determined. I doubt that stock to flow is even wrong in terms of the visualization of the BTC price having potentials to jump up into higher bands.. and whether that is jumping up 10x, 100x, 2x or some other multiple/magnitude that ONLY can be recognized and appreciated after we might find ourselves in a higher band in which 5 digits or even 6 digits are no longer a thing.
I am not sure if I would proclaim that I am optimistic, but I want to figure out some ways in which each of us should be able to structure some kind of BTC investment and/allocation plan that fits our situations in such a way that we will lessen the amount of emotions that we are going to feel when the BTC price moves beyond expectations, and perhaps it hurts us worse if we are not prepared for the BTC price to go down... and I don't really believe in selling in order to prepare for down as much as I believe in pacing your buying and continuing to buy until you get into sufficient profits and perhaps overallocation that you end up being able to shave off some profits on the way up in order to relieve yourself from so many pressures in order to keep buying when the BTC price goes down with new money...
Would you prefer to be called a objective person with a rationale mind?
I think that each of us have biases and flaws, and even though I try to NOT let my own investment into BTC bias me, I already know that I pull punches when it comes to predicting that the BTC price will go down, so it seems that I have my own ways of spinning matters that are probably quite a bit less than objective, and even though I try to NOT get emotional about aspects of my investment, there are emotions that come into play sometimes too... so a completely rational mind might be a robot, but I deny being a robot (even though sometimes I admit that I am one).
There are ways to attempt to structure your position in such a way that you try to be emotionally and financially neutral in regards to whether the BTC price is going to go up or down in the short-term, but I really do not know how to get away from my own built in presumption that it is likely that the BTC price is going to continue to go up, even if we might have short term periods in which the BTC price is going down much further than it was expected to go down. Sometimes if the BTC price goes down 50% lower than what might have been considered to have had been the bottom (for example going more than 50% below $35k in 2022), after the BTC price goes 50% below what was considered to have had been the likely bottom, there can be regrets that maybe I could have worked my BTC portfolio differently, so even if I had not sold in order to buy lower, at least I could have NOT bought back so many BTC between $17k and $35k and just waited for the BTC price to go below $17k and then buy then.. so there can be emotional/financial dilemmas in regards to whether my own practice could have been tweaked in order to "better deal with the situation" as I should have known better, even though while going through with such 50% additional drop, we can never really be sure about when the "bottom might be in," and the BTC price might reverse and start to resume UPpity.. so I had learned in the past to largely just stick with my system that is in place.. but even it is true that this time, I did end up pulling a few buy orders and right around five times, or even more, restructuring my orders, and there was something like a 24 hour period
(I think that was around June 17, 2022 when we had dropped down to $17,600-ish) that I completely pulled all of my buy orders off of the table because I was trying to figure out how to deal with the situation in accordance with the BTC price continuing to drop and I was running out of money to continue to buy.
I see your posts and you are passionate about btc but I never see you saying INVEST and you are guaranteed to profit which I like because you are not selling new members a fairy tale that could make them lose a lot of money which I think a lot of the btc community is guilty of.
It's not an easy balance, and any of us could slip up or be misunderstood. For example, if I say, you better get started in BTC right away and figure out what you are going to do in regards to your BTC allocation, but don't come crying to me when you lose money.. I am kind of speaking out of both sides of my mouth, because I am saying that bitcoin is likely amongst the best of investments that we have every had available to us (and to a bunch of normies), but at the same time there are no guarantees and also you are responsible for your own decisions regarding whether to invest, how much to invest and how to go about making your investments.. while at the same time, I don't mind sharing with you the frame work in which I like to consider how I would tailor my own investment approach based on what I know about your situation... so it is not an easy balance... to say "get the fuck off zero" but still figure out what works for you, and if you have hardly no clue about your own finances, then you better get your finances (and your psychology) in order first, but in the meantime, the vast majority of adults have a bit of a ballpark idea about whether they have more cash coming in than they have expenses, so they should be able to immediately assess if they can start out with $10 per week. .and then maybe it might take them several weeks or even a month or two to figure out if it might be prudent for them to invest $100 per week or if some other amount might work for them, or maybe they figure out that they are not even in a place in which they are able to invest $10 per week until they get some of their finances and psychology in better order first.
I think you have a optimistic approach or maybe it is confidence in btc but you are more level headed then a lot of people here. We have people who throw btc down the drain when it starts to hit resistance and then we have people thinking it is going to make us all millionaires over night.
I think that we have a decent number of long term members who follow this thread who are generally bullish about bitcoin, and they have some similar practices as me, but they just do not post as much as I do about the topic... life sometimes gets in the way of being able to read and respond to threads on this forum.. even if maybe some folks might ONLY follow the WO thread, but sometimes choose not to engage as much.
Of course, your initial lump summing yourself into bitcoin probably contributed to some of the additional stress that you brought to yourself, and I am not even suggesting that it might not have been the right play for you and for your then situation, even though I would have probably played it somewhat differently.. in terms of probably lump summing with 1/3, DCA with 1/3 over several months, and scheduling buys on dips with 1/3.. and how I would have allocated those amounts would have also depended partly upon what were my other then investments and my cashflow too... and probably a few other factors too.
It definitely contributed to low moods at the beginning many times I doubted if I did the right thing and I still remember when I 1st invested and was shaking from the adrenaline. It was a horrible feeling but I was the most confident in my life before investing that lump sum. I know a lot of people are not in the position to do this and I am fortunate but I have worked for this over many years and was in the position because of the hard work I have done. I know youngsters want to jump in on btc and put a lump sum down but it is volatile and a lot of them do not have the heart of belief that they will profit in a few years. dca is the best option for them because it calms the nerves of investing but can net you a nice profit over the years. I fear for the people who invest and expect a quick return because I think we are past the days of doubling as you said.
hahahaha You sound more bearish than me.. because I am not ruling out that the BTC price could go up 100x in one or two years... even though it is a pretty low chance.. something like less than 1%.. I would have to work out the numbers... but still, I am not ruling out possible overly bullish scenarios, even if they are not very likely in the whole scheme of things.
There are a lot of people, even with good incomes who have never really built up an investment portfolio, even if they have potentially had 10 years 20 years or more in order to accomplish such, and then they get into their 40s or 50s and they start to consider that maybe they should have been building an investment portfolio, so most of the time when people are building their investment portfolio they have no choice except to build slowly and on a regular basis. Once they have built up some kind of a substantial investment portfolio, whether that might be considered $10k, $50k, $100k or some other amount, then they are in a better position to have options in regards if they want to reallocate their investment portfolio in part or in total to BTC and whether they want to reallocate in terms of lump summing into their reallocation or to reallocate in incremental ways (such as DCA), so if you already have a decently-sized investment portfolio, you have more options than someone who has not even spent the time to build up an investment portfolio.... and at the same time, even if someone has already established an investment portfolio, many people still do not choose to engage in lump sum reallocations, but instead might still decide to DCA into any new investments that they make (even adding BTC into the mix) because it might be easier for them, and also they might not like the idea of potentially suffering from tax consequences in regards to any decision that they might make to reallocate in lump sums.
I think I might make my biggest investment in Bitcoin. I was hoping it would go down a little more but the market looks healthier then I thought it would be this early in the year. What do you guys think? I want to invest a few 1000 and I will not be in any rush to sell it. I have been using dollar cost average for a long time but I think this might be the perfect time looking at the graphs above to invest a big amount instead of continuing to dollar cost average?
We are recovering but I do not know if we have seen the lowest yet. If you can afford it I think it is as good as a time as any I invested when it btc was a lot higher but I do not have any regrets but do be prepared because it is a lot of strain on your emotions when you see btc decline.
Exactly!!! What else can you say? The BTC price could go up or it could go down, but at least we are still rigth around 78% below the $69k top from November 2021, and we are still about 12% below the 200-week moving average.. so BTC prices seem to be low, relatively speaking.. but surely no guarantees that they might not still go down from here....
Happy New year!First WO contest of 2022!
Where am I?
More precision=> more merits.
Today I was on the same slope again, and thought about the WO gang.
Luckily no mask this year!
Better camera too.. without having any alien photo-bombing your picture.
