Even though those numbers seem bearish, they are kind of the way that I like to consider my investments too.. .. so the more conservative would be 6% per year (which yeah is 106% per year).. yet I do also think that we can get away with something like 10% to 12% if we use the 200-week moving average, and reality will likely out perform that... Reality is likely to outperform your 1.2x per year too.. but it does not hurt to be conservative when it comes to assessing the likely future value of your wealth (investment portfolio).. ..

Yet when it comes to bitcoin, I don't see any reason to be rejiggering it every year, so even if there was a relatively conservative investment scenario when I got into bitcoin in 2013, so if my then investment portfolio was $100k, and so maybe I might have decided to invest up to 10% into bitcoin but then I got carried away and got up to something like 13% or 14% into bitcoin, and maybe I did not even do very well, and so I ended up ONLY getting 13.5 BTC out of the whole deal at an average cost of $1k per BTC... .So my regular investment portfolio might have gone up around 80% to 90% in the last 9 years, and if we want to be generous, then maybe we could say that it doubled and went from $100k to $200k.. yet how much is 13.5 BTC worth right now?  Right around $318,600 (using a BTC price of $23,600).. which would mean that my total investment portfolio might be worth around $518,600, and thus 61.5% of my investment portfolio is in BTC.. I am not necessarily fucking around with it... but allowing it to grow and attempting to be prudent about it and not drawing from the profitable portions of my overall holdings.. which has been the BTC portion of my holdings.

There are ways that BTC can be very powerful, even if we fuck up in a variety of ways, as long as we are mostly aiming towards holding and/or building our BTC and perhaps when we get to a certain point we strive that our bitcoin stash does not shrink below certain portions - even though by its own price appreciation, relative to the rest of our investments, it seems to have had been growing way better than our other investments... and even though there are no guarantees, there still seems to be fairly strong investment thesis in regards to bitcoin to suggest that bitcoin is quite likely to continue to outperform our various other investments, even if we might ONLY assign it relatively low future value approximations.. ...and sure we can project out a variety of scenarios in which some of them are more bearish and conservative, such as 6%, 12% or 20% per year or maybe some others might be more medium optimistic such as 1.5x to 4x per year.. and maybe others might even be more optimistic, such as 100x in one or two years and not really knowing if or whether such a blow off top BTC price performance might come, even though we have seen such BTC price performance happenings historically and there is nothing really ruling them out, except just attempting to NOT be overly optimistic.. while still realizing that we can ot be overrealistic but still prepared for such upside possibilities that "could" end up happening.. which includes our taking whimpy actions in which we sabotage our lil selfies from benefiting from upside BTC scenarios because we invest in crap that we know is likely to lose value.. such as the dollar and maybe even several other dollar dependent investments.


"pro-reality"


hahahahahahaha

Who cannot be "for" that?


 


Which goes to show that Philip's scenario is not really very likely.. even though it can be used as a kind of "worser case" scenario.. not as if it were a "likely scenario."... some people invest into bitcoin as if it were the base case and think of no other scenario.. and then fail/refuse to prepare for other possible more bullish scenarios.. and sometimes might even get attracted to some other "competing" investment, if such a "competing investment" thing actual does exist.

In the ballpark of 100%, since we are already there.


Part of the problem seems to be that you come off as if you are describing some kind of a stable BTC price, and we know that bitcoin does not work like that... and maybe it would "feel" better if you were referring to possible future BTC price bottoms, but just describing it as if it were some kind of a reasonable/serious expectation (or a kind of "base case") makes you seem a wee bit "anti-bitcoin".... even if that doesn't really seem to be your intention...


Are you a spook?   


Noise, no?

Does not matter if it is noise or if we drop under 20k or even go to the original terrible predictions for this bear say 12-13k.  Or if we bounce right back to 25k and then 30k.

Because of my discussions here and my mining setup I have decided to go about this in a different manner.


We all know btc will not do 120% on the button 20 years in a row.

For me at 66 I have decided that 76 is my time line for dca and buy the dip hodl moves.

And they are separate from my mining moves (this is due to JJG's influence)

I look at gold in the 1992 to 2003 range it was 200-400 the whole time

it hit 1848 by 2011 and from 2011 to 2023 it has been in a 1064 to 2050 slot

If BTC is to be in a 28.7 to 69 slot from dec 2020 to now.

the same rise of 4.5 to 5.0 could happen over next 8 years and maybe we push 300k by 2031-2032

https://www.moneymetals.com/gold-price


charts of gold are interesting when cherry picked as follows:

1992 to 2003 = flat slot
2003 to 2011= big jump
2011 to 2023 = flat slot


so cherry pick btc and does dec 2020 to feb 2023 = 1992 to 2003 for gold

thus  2023 to 2025 btc could = 2003 to 2011 for gold

and we are near 300k really quick

I am thinking we do not see this speed.

So I set a 10 year plan for my dca + dip and hodl all independent of mining.

so 2032 nov or bust. for my current 'investment buys'

This goes out to all the cat loving Wo Bros...  (I know besides me, there maybe one or two anyway)

https://soundcloud.com/sirazimuth/this-world-is-ours

I know Jay and Marcus (MIA) will appreciate the impeccable singing....


And as usual...

GO BITCOIN

Journey of Bitcoin in 2009 to 2022.

* in January 2009 - March 2010 BTC was basically nothing.
* May 2010 BTC price was: 0.08$.
* April 2011 BTC price was: 1$.
* November 2011 BTC price was: 2$.
* July 1, 2012 BTC price was: 15.25$.
* August 18, 2012 BTC price was: 10.50$.
* October 2013 BTC price was: 196.02$.
* November 2013 BTC price was: 1,154.93$.
* December 2013 BTC price was: 744.17$.
* January 2014 BTC price was: 841.49$.
* March 2014 BTC price was: 472.48$.
* May 2014 BTC price was: 612.13$.
* July 2014 BTC price was: 565.57$.
* September 2014 BTC price was:  376.08$.
* October 2014 BTC price was: 343.56$.
* December 2014 BTC price was: 309.9$.
* January 2015 BTC price was: 247.26$.
* March 2015 BTC price was: 226.94$.
* May 2015 BTC price was: 233.33$.
* July 2011 BTC price was: 286.74$.
* September 2015 BTC price was: 238.06$.
* October 2015 BTC price was: 327.58$.
* November 2015 BTC price was: 375.2$.
* December 2015 BTC price was: 424.96$.
* January 2016 BTC price was: 378.17$.
* March 2016 BTC price was: 414.46$.
* May 2016 BTC price was: 537.23$.
* July 2016 BTC price was: 635.59$.
* September 2016 BTC price was: 604.52$.
* October 2016 BTC price was: 693.9$.
* November 2016 BTC price was: 731.64$.
* December 2016 BTC price was: 952.46$.
* January 2017 BTC price was: 921.35$.
* February 2017 BTC price was: 1,189.95$.
* March 2017 BTC price was: 1,048.86$.
* April 2017 BTC price was: 1,311.59$.
* May 2017 BTC price was: 2,170.98$.
* June 2017 BTC price was: 2,547.32$.
* July 2017 BTC price was: 2,718.62$.
* August 2017 BTC price was: 4,676.14$.
* September 2017 BTC price was: 4,207.82$.
* October 2017 BTC price was: 6,130.56$.
* December 2017 BTC price was: 13,062.15$
* January 2018 BTC price was: 9,914.47$.
* February 2018 BTC price was: 10,903.02$.
* March 2018 BTC price was: 6,970.36$.
* April 2018 BTC price was: 9,268.72$.
* July 2018 BTC price was: 8,166.39$.
* August 2018 BTC price was: 6,938.51$.
* September 2018 BTC price was: 6,576.61$.
* November 2018 BTC price was: 3,952.45$.
* January 2019 BTC price was: 3,441.03$.
* April 2019 BTC price was: 5,151.43$.
* May 2019 BTC price was: 8,287.04$.
* June 2019 BTC price was: 12,024.08$.
* July 2019 BTC price was: 9,572.74$.
* September 2019 BTC price was: 8,085.71$.
* October 2019 BTC price was: 9,226$.
* December 2019 BTC price was: 7,251.28$.
* January 2020 BTC price was: 9,545.08$.
* March 2020 BTC price was: 6,483.74$.
* April 2020 price was: 8,773.11$.
* June 2020 price was: 9,188.06$.
* August 2020 BTC price was: 11,657$.
* September 2020 BTC price was: 10,764.28$.
* October 2020 BTC price was: 13,573.71$.
* November 2020 BTC price was:  18,114.41$.
* December 2020 BTC price was: 28,768.84$.
* January 01, 2021 BTC price was: 28,994.01$.
* January 10, 2021 BTC price was: 40,254.22$.
* January 15, 2021 BTC price was: 39,156.71$.
* January 20, 2021 BTC price was: 36,050.11$.
* February 01, 2021 BTC price was: 33,114.58$.
* February 15, 2021 BTC price was: 48,696.54$.
* February 22, 2021 BTC price was: 57,539.94$.
* July 20, 2021 BTC price was: 29,800$.
* September 06, 2021 BTC price was: 52,600$.
* September 28, 2021 BTC price was: 41,000$.
* October 20, 2021 BTC price was: 65,990$.
* November 08, BTC price was: 69,000$.
* December 04, 2021 BTC price was: 49,200$.
* December 17, 2021 BTC price was: 42,000$.
* December 23, 2021 BTC price was: 49,000$.
* January 2022 BTC price was: 45,871.07$.
* May 2022 BTC price was: 40,040.17$.
* July 2022 BTC price was: 24,678$.
* August 2022 BTC price was: 25,219$.
* November 2022 BTC price was: 21,486.08$.
* December 2022 BTC price was: 18,383.19$.