Each of those mostly sounds right.. yet any of us might not know if there might be some potential conflict situation in which one or more of the principles is brought into question with some potentially conflicting principles that might be considered as equally, if not more important than the upholding of a seemingly sound principle that might not be as sound as it appears to be on the surface.
Hello everyone, my vision, facts:
1) green levels are global and strong, they reflect the overall positive mood in the bitcoin world
2) a downtrend has formed - red
Potentially:
1) if it breaks 30k, it will fly up to 50k
2) you can drop to 8k (intersection of red and green)
IMHO
Oh my? That's really scary.
The BTC price might go up, but if it fails to go up, then it could go down.
Not only scary.. but a reasonable interpretation seems to be that: it really sucks to be a HODLer in these here times, no?
What to do? what to do?
Any advices?
US banks failed causing a decline in global bank stock prices and prompting regulators to take measures to prevent Extra contagion. The failures were triggered by factors such as exposure to cryptocurrency and the selling of Treasury bond portfolios at a large loss.
That sounds like something that
a lost bot would say.
Herow.
Are you lost widdo bottie?
[edited out]
If I were to give a % chance of these things happening, I'd say we have a 60% chance that we'll see a breakout to at least 35k by the end of the year,
25% chance we'll stay in this channel of 26k-31k,
10% that we'll drop to retest 19k,
4% chance that we'll go lower than 19k
and 1%, literally 1% chance that we'll see lower low than 15k. Chances of going to 8k are probably something like 0.01%. We'd need a worldwide mining ban or another pandemic to even come close to that.
That said, if we won't reach a lower low by March 2024, chances of this happening will decrease tenfold.
Wow!!!!
Interesting and provocative numbers darkangel11..
I like that you are so specific..
At the same time, something seems wrong about your numbers though.. and maybe even your framework... ... and in some sense, there might be a need to lock in whatever timeframe that you are talking about and even lock in some of the variables.. .. so once you start to say, if this happens then, then you are adding a whole different potential leg.. and it becomes really difficult to deal with predicting more than one leg at a time, even though if we see from now to the end of the year, or even from now until March 2024, either certain prices will be hit (to the upside or the downside) or they won't.... so I am not sure how much muddying that we would like to do with the various changes of the possibilities that might happen at various points between now and March 2024.
Just looking at one factor.. is the bottom in or not... that would be right around $15,479 on November 20, 2022.. so if we just have that one question, you seem to be giving something in the ball park of 99% that the bottom is already in, and so why am I (and even other people) having such a dilemma on that exact question regarding whether or not the bottom is in, if the percentage is 99% that it is in?
So if you are giving such an unrealistically high number that the bottom is already in
(from the point of view of this here cat), then something has got to be wrong about your other numbers, no?
Of course, another problem is that there could be both "a breakout to at least $35k" and the bottom not being in... so that seems to be another problem in that you have too many scenarios that you are wanting to present.. and again, I do still like a lot of your numbers, but even though you have placed all the scenarios into the 100% range, you are describing ways in which the numbers end up adding up to more than 100%. so that seems to be a bit of a presentation problem...even though surely I could attempt to better guess what you are trying to say.. but I am too lazy.
