Hmm I think philmipma is using some sort of reverse-order strategy on the historical monthly return chart as you know July performed really well back in Hsitory but this time it disappointed a bit so the same case is with the SEP as it's Historically one of the most -ve performers and OCT is completely Opposite to the SEP.

For AUG hmm, it's very Volatile by nature sometimes a Light Bringer and sometimes Full Dark... Have look

that might be just a little over one month away... imagined it could be a strategy to dump before other speculators do  

Short term its attached since it has not really formed a 'too big to fail market cap'

Ie gold = 10 trillion + = 18%
Stock market = 45 trillion + that is nasdaq and nyse = 78%
BTC                  = 570 billion only 1%

When those ratios go to

gold 10%
stock market 70%
BTC 20%.

they may fully uncouple.

for now so much more is in

Gold
Metals of all kinds
Stocks
Bonds
Real Estate

that BTC is subject to a lot of co dependent behavior to the larger pools of wealth.

The Fed jump is good.

Next one  up is sept 22.   my guy (35 years as a banker) says pause

Then nov 2 he then says unknown

Lastly dec 14 also unknown.

My guess is Sept is a jump
Then Nov is a pivot.

Which would mean a fall-winter rally for btc and stocks.

Down the road maybe 2032 if btc is 600k with a market cap of 6 trillion it will not be tied to the other wealth sources.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

The whole line of reasoning about the interconnections of large asset classes seemed interesting to me. But after all, if to think about it, all assets, even large ones, are part of the global world economy, and even when an asset ceases to follow the patterns of some larger assets, it still remains interconnected with them. Then, logically, the model of interaction and interdependence of graphs simply becomes more complex, but still does not disappear. Isn't it?

All in on September would be great   Tho we still early at this price

and anyway Mr Powell has said that the inflation rate is out

Fuck you finally did a really good post. I will have to merit it.

I have two older friends that were bankers.

I am 66 they are 76 and 83.

They are wealthy not billionaires but say 25 million and 35 million for each of them.

I am way poorer then they are maybe 1/10 the wealth.

Both of them are well diversified and have the ability to do nothing and live well or do more and live well.

I met more friends of them some worth 5 million some worth 50 million one worth 800 million.

All are 10-20 years older than me.
First off everyone of them would give at least half their wealth to be forty vs 76-86.
All of them are not looking to burn their wealth. They play around with various investments more or less for a hobby .

So shifting from bonds to metals to real estate to stocks to cash is something they all do.

They all like BTC as one more value/wealth bucket to shift into.

All of them hodl and churn their holdings. They pay attention to ratios.

They all like the idea of fleeing the country and having a wallet when they are in a safer country.

So my look at the upper 1% is a bit skewed as I know guys in the 25-800 million dollar range.

Obviously they are in the lower part of the upper 1%.

But they really match your question close to perfectly.

So yeah the interrelationship of wealth/value buckets 🪣 will change as one grows more than the other .

Silver was 50 usd in the late 70s  gold was under 400 say 8 to 1

now silver is 25 and gold is say 2000 say 80 to 1.

so those buckets shifted bigly.

to say btc cap at  600,000 billion and gold cap at 12 trillion is 20 to 1

I could see btc gaining and being 6 trillion cap vs 12 trillion gold say 2 to 1.

The real question is not that

 stock up btc up
gold up btc up

but how much leaves the wealth/value buckets of all the other assets.

and fills the btc wealth/value bucket.

Yep and the older guys I know all have 2-5% BTC. But they have BTC.

The question is how much will they shift. To go up to 10%-15% is likely all they will do. They will not go to 85-15 as blackrock asks them to as they do not need to.

So they have a ton of wealth with not much need to shift to btc. But they are shifting a bit.

Should be fun to see this unfold.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com