Your quotes are fucked up.. but I fixed them within my post.... and largely it was because you seemed to have had copied and pasted an extra "[quote author=JayJuanGee link=topic=178336.msg62661490#msg62661490 date=1691431597" in front of where I say "That's the spirit!!!!".. it is not necessary to have that [quote author=JayJuanGee link=topic=178336.msg62661490#msg62661490 date=1691431597 there because the earlier use of the [quote author=JayJuanGee link=topic=178336.msg62661490#msg62661490 date=1691431597 covers that particular quote. If that attempted explanation makes any sense.
In my opinion, I don't expected any deep drop in price anymore. That era is gone and soon volume will begin to increase as well as the price.
That's the spirit!!!!
I am glad that you moved away from the earlier doom and gloom in your post, but we know it is good to be prepared for either direction, which surely is a thing that is possible to accomplish.
I am learning and growing and one sign of it is the ability to adjust my views when presented with plausible reasons and evidence.
All within the same post?
That seems to be more appropriately called "wiffle-waffling."
I would not call it "learning and growing.".. but hey.. whatever. You do you.
Actually, the market have a way of putting one into confusion especially with this extended consolidation. Nevertheless, I have always maintained that we are not going to go south down to $24k region; this is my general bias and expectations.
$24k seems like a pretty high price point to be proclaiming that the BTC price will "never" go below.
I prefer to attempt to think of these matters in a kind of graduated way, yet we should attempt to lock in the timeframe too. If we are talking about never or if we might be talking about this cycle so maybe in the next 3-6 months? Or maybe we could pick "prior to the halvening" or some other timeframe that we might want to consider as a possible relevant talking point.
So then once we pick the time, and let me just presume that you meant prior to the halvening (rather than ever), so if we might say that going below the 200-week moving average might be 50/50 chances, or maybe even greater than 50/50 chances. We are not very far away from the 200-week moving average (currently at $27,218), even though it continues to move up at nearly $16 per day... so then $24k is really not very far from the 200 week moving average either, but maybe the odds might get as low as 20% to 30%, but surely not as low as zero.. but if we might want to be ballsy about it, maybe we could proclaim going below $24k is less than 10%, yet I will still consider you as an exaggerator (or overly confident) if you are placing those kinds of odds on that price, even if you might really believe it, even if you are not sharing your beliefs with others, and even if you might end up being correct, it still does not seem that you are being realistic when you try to make such strict assignments of probabilities.
Prior to we having this conversation, I was a kind of fixed on this bias and never willing to consider any possibilities of a drop to even $20k or lower.
The probabilities are still a graduation.. so if we might say, around 50% odds that we go below $27,218 (or the 200-week moving average), 25% odds that we go below $24k, 20% odds that we go below $22k, we are still likely going to get to somewhere between 10% and 18% odds of going below $20k - and again, if you try to proclaim that the odds are zero or close to zero, then I am going to call you delusional, but I might not call you delusional if you give me a reasonably low ball number.. maybe I could live with as low as 6or7%.. perhaps?.. though 10% seems to already be pretty low, so sure, we don't necessarily need to agree, but if you are going with anything below 6% I am going to start to question your ability to reasonable attempt to assign probabilities.
It seems that in the past few weeks, I had posted in another thread and disclosed that I had around 2.5% of my total BTC allocated investment funds that are in cash, and so currently, I have BTC buy orders all the way down to $13k-ish, but I really don't expect anything to fill lower than $24k-ish.. but sure if some of them end up filling lower than $24k, then so be it, but I don't expect it and I don't even want it...
But later learnt from your above that even though you wish price never get lower, you already made plans for such scenerio... that is the learning I was emphasizing.
Well I have largely been attempting to set these kinds of ongoing BTC buy orders (even extremes), since the beginning of my bitcoining.. so even when I started to buy in late 2013, I was trying to buy dips, even when I was the earliest days of my DCA'ing practices too.
I did not really sell any BTC without immediately replacing until about August or so of 2015, and at that time, I started a practice in which I created formulas for myself for amounts of BTC that I could sell on the way up .... and so it was ONLY small factions of what my profits would have had been, so if I had 10 BTC and the BTC price went up $10, then my profits would be $100, and so the most that I could sell from those profits would be 50%, but most commonly I would only allow myself to sell less than 25% of the profits amounts (at most)... So as the cash would pile up, then that money would just be set up in order to buy BTC back on dips, and if the BTC price did not dip, then the money would either be spent or just placed into a kind of long-term reserve fund that might still be dedicated to BTC buys without specifically having any exact earmarks as to when it might be used.
In my earliest days of attempting to prepare myself financially and psychologically for either BTC price direction (and especially BTC price dips), I frequently made mistakes that revolved around running out of money to buy BTC way too soon because the BTC price would frequently dip further or for longer than anticipated, so I frequently would get close to running out of money, even if I never really did technically run out of money, but practically the way that I would have to begin to reduce my BTC buy orders, then I would still consider that whatever errors that I had made were still within a kind of category of running out of money.
I feel that in the past 7-8 years, I have gotten quite a bit better at not buying back too much BTC too soon, but I have not completely removed myself from such issue, and even in during the BTC price run up in 2021, I had slowly retracted a lot of the cash that I had reserved for BTC buy backs going down to $9k or so, and by the time we got into about May 2022, my BTC buy orders ONLY went down to the 200-week moving average which was then right below $22k - however, in mid May 2022, when the BTC prices suddenly dropped from upper $30ks to upper $20ks, I had myself a bit of an "oh fuck!" moment. I pretty much had to resize and rearrange several of my buy orders so they would go down to below $20k, and even though I still hoped that the BTC price would not go below $20k, I made those preparations, and when the BTC prices kept dropping, I had to continue to rearrange and ultimately I had to add more value from outside funds in order to create buy orders going down to nearly $10k. and currently the lowest of the remaining ones are sitting around $13k.. but of course, if we ended up experiencing BTC prices in the lower $20ks or even sub $20ks, I may well have to restructure the lowest of my current BTC buy orders....
So, I am bringing up my various experiences between May 2022 and December-ish 2022 in order to describe adjustments that I have had to make that attempt to prepare me for extreme scenarios, even ones that I do not expect to happen and that I don't even want to happen, but I have the money on reserve at those price points in order that I don't have to worry about having capital already allocated to take advantage of extreme scenarios that I still consider to be very low probability events.. that may well even be in a below 5% scenario at present time to go down to $13k in this cycle or even in the next year or so, seems like less than 5% odds.
I have come to understand, from this discussion, that the market need a lot of flexibility instead of being fixated on a bias.
It seems to be a good idea to attempt to prepare for extremes.. which maybe by definition would be low probability events that you believe not likely to happen, but at the same time, it is likely a good practice to not be putting very much energy and efforts into preparing for the extreme scenarios, but instead more efforts should be made to attempt to prepare for more likely scenarios and/or to make sure that in the end you are prepared for BTC UPpity, especially if you believe that BTC has good odds of going up.. but you should not necessarily be preparing for Armageddon, even though perhaps a bit of Armageddon preparations is within the realm of reasonableness. In other words, if an event is 1% or2% or even less than 5% likely, you should not be putting 20%, or more preparations into such extremely unlikely scenarios.
At least we have a common ground which is an upside move for Bitcoin.
It's o.k. not to agree on some things or even not to agree on several things, but sure, if we both agree with the prospects that bitcoin is going up, then we might at least have some common areas in which we might not need to battle.. until we get into the going up phase, and sometimes there can be disagreements regarding both how much we expect BTC prices to go up and also disagreements regarding how to deal with those kinds of happenings once they start to play out. There are people who believe in selling all of their coins at strategic points, so I argue with those kinds of people frequently... so even people can agree on 80% or 90% of things, and then sometimes get into a BIG battle over the things about which they disagree.
