Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

We are likely already in the beginning of the bullmarket since November - yet, sure it can be difficult to know because it can take a while for the UPpity momentum to rampen up.

In other words, there seem to be pretty decent odds that the bottom (of $15,479) is in.

Sure, there are some outstanding macro events, and sure over the past 9 months or so, there have been decreases in the value of the dollar that cause our current BTC prices of $26k-ish to actually even be lower in "real" terms.

There may also be some pretty decently BIG additional macro-factors to hit - but not too many of us regulars really believe that king daddy gives too many shits about macro-events in the sense of it being to the same correlated price moves as other asset classes, even if during short period liquidity periods dee cornz may well end up selling a lot more and a lot further than various other assets.. but so what about some of the short-term phenomena when we should be zooming out and not placing too many high time frame expectations on what we are expecting or wanting dee cornz to do. also in terms of many bears/bitcoin naysayers/no coiners and/or status quo financially rich wanting to push BTC prices down as far as they can and to keep them down as far as they can for as long at they can.. .. and many of longer term coiners likely realize (without wishful-thinking) that they DOWNity players are likely their own portfolios at risk if they are not actually accumulating BTC on the side, instead of wrongly thinking that they can "control" this bad boy.

If you are not getting enough UP..  or you are feeling like the halvening is not going to have any effect, then sure that is on you to be having those kinds of seemingly impatient thoughts, and surely, it can take a lot of months after the halvening before that additional shortage of coins is actually started to really be felt, and that seems to be part of the reason why we might not even get much if any UPwards BTC price moves for many months after the halvening.. sure maybe it will be a year this time.. I have my doubts, but sure it is possible that BTC prices could end up being depressed and suppresed for longer than many BTC bulls would like it to be and longer than they are able to stay solvent... so good luck holding onto your coins if you cannot take a bit of downity movement and/or failure of dee cornz to go up.


I am not sure... he might not even be a he the way definitions are redefined in these here times.


FTFY



Oh?  so you admit it.  Mining is adjusting to the BTC price.  right

right




rrrrrriiiiiiggggggghhhhhtttttttttt?

Not the other way around.


I know that the tail does not wag the dog.  I know that much.

 


I don't mind a bit of exaggeration, but geez.. we are not even close to any kind of a BTC death spiral... we have not even broken below "don't wake me up zone," yet.

Sure there currently seems to be a lot of pressure to break downity.. but even if we break down there is likely to be a few more support spots before even getting back into double bottom territory. and a double bottom is not even needed to happen.. . I would not assume that it is going to be very easy, even speaking hypothetically, to get the breaking of support at each of the legs of something like $22k, $20k, $18k to even get down to our current local bottom of $15,479.. so there would probably be some needs to get below $10k before BTC death spiral themes might start to even be plausibly relevant. which I would still have my doubts even if we were to make it back into the lower 5 digits and members like gallianooo will be coming back into the thread to tell us that he predicted it all along... blah blah blah.


Surely that would end up shaking quite a few more weak hands, and I am not even sure if it would need to go down that far in order to accomplish the shaking weak hands agenda.. but sure, maybe I am merely imagining that there might be support somewhere between $25,500 and $20k.. like maybe around $22k.. but hey?  what do I know?  I am largely just guessing, which is also known as the employment of SOMA^{tm-thanks deddie}methodology.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

I wouldn’t say bears are responsible. Binance is dumping BTC like crazy trying to keep their business afloat. It was clear after the FTX failure that this was coming. I warned about it months ago and told people to get their funds off Binance. I think this is the dip people need to buy, although waiting to see if Binance can stabilize BNB or go bankrupt might be the move.

^Yeah well... bye, Felicia.  Here's your coat, what's your hurry?  Don't call us, we'll call you.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

 Chicxulub's got nothing on us.

 That reminds me, if you want to see a cool Easter egg, do a google search for "Chicxulub crater"

There have been bitcoiners who had several years already arguing that dee cornz has already made its dent, and there is no turning back.

Yet, if we end up failing completely, then that would put us back into a kind of territory (or even an assumption)  that bitcoin has not made any difference, and we are not going to get any further run at this.

So yeah, maybe you got me in a bit of a trap here vapourminer because it is difficult to even factually entertain the bitcoin has lost scenario without some kind of major catastrophe - which should well end up being represented in a much larger price crash.

Sure there are spiraling down scenarios (as Phil had mentioned earlier), and those kinds of cases would need a lot more "on the ground" evidence of bitcoiners losing confidence in the investment and BIG players pulling out.. and surely some uninformed folks want to describe some of the more recent information around Elon pulling out to be signs of bitcoin's downfall - which many of us know that Elon does not matter, even as much as people like to attribute importance to him based on the size of his wealth - but we know that he does not matter, because the amount of his bitcoin is not very large, relatively speaking. 

surely there could be cases in which Saylor and some other BIG players pull out and go on a kind of anti-bitcoin campaign, and surely we know that Saylor is quite articulate so I could imagine scenarios like that, so long as other BIG players were going along with him, like Fidelity and the Winklevii, and Grayscale and perhaps the fall of big bitcoin exchanges like Binance.. and surely right now, I do think that there is a lot of FUD around Binance going down - which seems like a lot of wishful thinking to me, so I am having troubles considering what all the supposed bad news is that is supposedly going on right now, that gives us much of anything more than a range bound correction that just seems to be in the current lower end of the range (talking about $25k) but still has neither broken below and even if it did we might have to have more than a mere few hours of dipping below.

So golly gee whiz Wally.^**

I am having trouble with the steel man of the lack of a dent proclamation - since it really does seem that dee cornz are here and here to stay, even if there might be some abilities to go below the current bottom end of the range and potentially touch upon the supports at $22k and $20k.. but I hate to even think about prior legs before this actually leg plays out to the downity.. so until then, don't wake me up.


**  Here's some context for the golly gee whiz Wally reference for anyone who might not know it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zdnD10TqygM


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bwq2GgZ2Sdw