Many pundits give roughly a range of 134K-327K top for this cycle.
See here, for example:
https://coingape.com/bitcoin-price-to-hit-327k-if-this-happens-peter-brandt-predicts/This guy (P. Brandt) is good, usually.
Here is some quick paper napkin math:
In the prior two cycles we went from 3.2K lows to 15.7K lows.
Assuming similar proportion, next LOW (if extended similarly) could be (15.7/3.2)X15.7=77K.
The proportion of the drop seem to decline slowly cycle to cycle from 94% to 87% to 84% to 77% or thereabout.
Therefore, if the next low would be a next number in the progression aka 70% decline, then the next top (in this cycle) "ought" to be 77/0.3=about 257K, which is approx in the middle (average is $231.5) of the range above.
Not an investment advice.
Since ETF's more capital is involved now, the decline could be way less than before (maybe only 50%). which meant a top way less than 257k. In addition, the parabolic blow-offs might be tamed by the bigger (and slower) amount of money involved.
However, there might be a flipping point, when huge capital gets deployed in a short time all these calculations go out of the window and price could easily explode to 500k+ this cycle. IMO less than a 20% chance though.
SOMA of course
