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    Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26860319 times)
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    • d_eddie
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    November 18, 2024, 09:11:37 PM
    Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
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    https://x.com/AP_Abacus/status/1858598010235596964
    Andrew (@AP_Abacus) on X

    UPDATE: confirmed @BlackRock $IBIT options to begin trading tmrw.
    • liquidity, liquidity, liquidity.
    • this is effectively four months early.
    • notice it is $IBIT first.

    Options are a double edged sword. I can think of a few points.

    PROS

    - Liquidity, liquidity, liquidity
    - More appeal for institutions
    - An instrument for living off one stash without selling (save some "unfortunate" unforeseen bullish run). Just sell out-of-the-money calls and pocket the premium. If it goes too much up... well you'll have to give up your precious at the strike price of the option you wrote, rather than at the higher market price at the time of expiry.

    CONS

    - More appeal for deep pocket sharks, who will have a relatively cheap manipulation tool. Cheaper than futures anyway.
    - It makes btc less and less of a hodler centric asset, but this is already happening, so maybe it's just me.

    There are no doubt many more issues I haven't though about yet, and a few more I can't even contemplate given the fact I'm in no way an expert.

    Disclaimer: This is not financial advice, and doesn't even look like it, I think.

  • Hueristic
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    November 18, 2024, 09:18:04 PM
    Quote from: d_eddie on November 18, 2024, 09:11:37 PM
    Quote
    https://x.com/AP_Abacus/status/1858598010235596964
    Andrew (@AP_Abacus) on X

    UPDATE: confirmed @BlackRock $IBIT options to begin trading tmrw.
    • liquidity, liquidity, liquidity.
    • this is effectively four months early.
    • notice it is $IBIT first.

    Options are a double edged sword. I can think of a few points.

    PROS

    - Liquidity, liquidity, liquidity
    - More appeal for institutions
    - An instrument for living off one stash without selling (save some "unfortunate" unforeseen bullish run). Just sell out-of-the-money calls and pocket the premium. If it goes too much up... well you'll have to give up your precious at the strike price of the option you wrote, rather than at the higher market price at the time of expiry.

    CONS

    - More appeal for deep pocket sharks, who will have a relatively cheap manipulation tool. Cheaper than futures anyway.
    - It makes btc less and less of a hodler centric asset, but this is already happening, so maybe it's just me.

    There are no doubt many more issues I haven't though about yet, and a few more I can't even contemplate given the fact I'm in no way an expert.

    Disclaimer: This is not financial advice, and doesn't even look like it, I think.

    I think he forgot the biggest con, dilutes built in scarcity.

    Thats why gains have slowed down by an order of magnitude.

    *another inconvenient truth the plebs don't want to acknowledge because it goes against the narrative.

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    November 18, 2024, 09:21:38 PM
    Merited by El duderino_ (8)
    Almost exactly 10 years ago... I watched the price of Bitcoin go up to over $1000.  I was camping over the US Thanksgiving with my family.

    Today?  Bitcoin doing 2-3k swings like it's nothing.  Wink

  • d_eddie
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    November 18, 2024, 09:25:33 PM
    Quote from: Hueristic on November 18, 2024, 09:18:04 PM
    Quote from: d_eddie on November 18, 2024, 09:11:37 PM
    Quote
    https://x.com/AP_Abacus/status/1858598010235596964
    Andrew (@AP_Abacus) on X

    UPDATE: confirmed @BlackRock $IBIT options to begin trading tmrw.
    • liquidity, liquidity, liquidity.
    • this is effectively four months early.
    • notice it is $IBIT first.

    Options are a double edged sword. I can think of a few points.

    PROS

    - Liquidity, liquidity, liquidity
    - More appeal for institutions
    - An instrument for living off one stash without selling (save some "unfortunate" unforeseen bullish run). Just sell out-of-the-money calls and pocket the premium. If it goes too much up... well you'll have to give up your precious at the strike price of the option you wrote, rather than at the higher market price at the time of expiry.

    CONS

    - More appeal for deep pocket sharks, who will have a relatively cheap manipulation tool. Cheaper than futures anyway.
    - It makes btc less and less of a hodler centric asset, but this is already happening, so maybe it's just me.

    I think he forgot the biggest con, dilutes built in scarcity.

    How do options dilute the scarcity more than other derivatives such as, say, futures/perps?

    Quote from: Hueristic on November 18, 2024, 09:18:04 PM
    Thats why gains have slowed down by an order of magnitude.

    That might also be due to the fact that the market is larger by an order of magnitude or more now, so it takes proportionally more money to move it. It's right that the price is made at the margin, but the margin, too, is orders of magnitude larger.

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    November 18, 2024, 09:26:10 PM
    Quote from: cAPSLOCK on November 18, 2024, 09:21:38 PM
    Almost exactly 10 years ago... I watched the price of Bitcoin go up to over $1000.  I was camping over the US Thanksgiving with my family.

    Today?  Bitcoin doing 2-3k swings like it's nothing.  Wink



    and today's big walls consist of 200 coins  Cheesy

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    November 18, 2024, 09:43:07 PM
    Merited by jojo69 (1)

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    November 18, 2024, 09:56:27 PM
    Last edit: November 18, 2024, 10:07:40 PM by eXPHorizon


    Just remember that you chose Bljatcoin and that the events to come are a direct consequence of your choices.

    Ya fkin greedy clowns

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    November 18, 2024, 10:01:12 PM

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    November 18, 2024, 10:08:21 PM
    Merited by fillippone (3)
    Rumors are that options trading will go live tomorrow or Wednesday for the ETFs.  Is anybody here planning on going full ape on some 1-year call options?  I'll admit that I've taken a look at MSTR options in the past but the cost to trade them is crazy.  I wonder if it will be realistic to take a bet for the December expiry options without having to spend five figures to do it...  While I'm sure there will also be folks who think this is a top and will trade options accordingly, I think this has the potential to make a significant impact on the price of BTC.

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    November 18, 2024, 10:27:10 PM
    Hey guys, how do you see this?

    Trump set to hold private meeting with Coinbase CEO



    Quote
    Donald Trump is set to meet with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong today to discuss potential appointments for his upcoming administration, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal.

    This marks the first meeting between the two since Trump’s election victory and signals the president-elect’s evolving stance on crypto.

    At a Bitcoin conference earlier this year, Trump pledged to establish a Bitcoin and crypto presidential advisory council focused on creating clear regulatory guidance if elected.


    Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/trump-and-crypto-coinbase-meeting/


    I know that Trump is also interested in buying an exchange called Bakkt, I don't know, but this looks promising, I imagine that the tycoon will also want to have his good personal BTC reserves, I don't blame him, I think anyone would do it.

    If all this brings positive effects for BTC, then welcome, the price will continue to rise with all these things , without a doubt the power often makes shortcuts to what could take a few years to achieve such adoption.

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    November 18, 2024, 10:45:47 PM
    Quote from: d_eddie on November 18, 2024, 09:25:33 PM
    Quote from: Hueristic on November 18, 2024, 09:18:04 PM
    Thats why gains have slowed down by an order of magnitude.

    That might also be due to the fact that the market is larger by an order of magnitude or more now, so it takes proportionally more money to move it. It's right that the price is made at the margin, but the margin, too, is orders of magnitude larger.

    The two are not necessarily mutually exclusive.

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    November 18, 2024, 10:56:49 PM
    Last edit: November 18, 2024, 11:37:09 PM by Gachapin
    Merited by cAPSLOCK (10), vapourminer (1), Hueristic (1)
    Quote from: danadc on November 18, 2024, 10:27:10 PM
    Hey guys, how do you see this?
    ...

    ...

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    November 18, 2024, 11:01:13 PM

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    November 18, 2024, 11:05:15 PM
    Quote from: OgNasty on November 18, 2024, 10:08:21 PM
    Rumors are that options trading will go live tomorrow or Wednesday for the ETFs.  Is anybody here planning on going full ape on some 1-year call options?  I'll admit that I've taken a look at MSTR options in the past but the cost to trade them is crazy.  I wonder if it will be realistic to take a bet for the December expiry options without having to spend five figures to do it...  While I'm sure there will also be folks who think this is a top and will trade options accordingly, I think this has the potential to make a significant impact on the price of BTC.

    It should be a matter of days, if not hours.
    Apparently, calls on debit have flattened out a little bit as punters are selling 100K.
    So expect ETF options trading accordingly.
    Remember that selling a call with Delta is a bullish positioning targeting an expiry toward 100K!

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    November 18, 2024, 11:13:37 PM
    Quote from: fillippone on November 18, 2024, 11:05:15 PM
    Quote from: OgNasty on November 18, 2024, 10:08:21 PM
    Rumors are that options trading will go live tomorrow or Wednesday for the ETFs.  Is anybody here planning on going full ape on some 1-year call options?  I'll admit that I've taken a look at MSTR options in the past but the cost to trade them is crazy.  I wonder if it will be realistic to take a bet for the December expiry options without having to spend five figures to do it...  While I'm sure there will also be folks who think this is a top and will trade options accordingly, I think this has the potential to make a significant impact on the price of BTC.

    It should be a matter of days, if not hours.
    Allegedly going live tomorrow.

    Quote
    Apparently, calls on debit have flattened out a little bit as punters are selling 100K.
    So expect ETF options trading accordingly.
    Remember that selling a call with Delta is a bullish positioning targeting an expiry toward 100K!

    Care to elaborate for us mere mortals?

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    November 18, 2024, 11:16:53 PM
    Merited by JayJuanGee (1), d_eddie (1)
    Quote from: d_eddie on November 18, 2024, 11:13:37 PM
    Quote from: fillippone on November 18, 2024, 11:05:15 PM
    Quote from: OgNasty on November 18, 2024, 10:08:21 PM
    Rumors are that options trading will go live tomorrow or Wednesday for the ETFs.  Is anybody here planning on going full ape on some 1-year call options?  I'll admit that I've taken a look at MSTR options in the past but the cost to trade them is crazy.  I wonder if it will be realistic to take a bet for the December expiry options without having to spend five figures to do it...  While I'm sure there will also be folks who think this is a top and will trade options accordingly, I think this has the potential to make a significant impact on the price of BTC.

    It should be a matter of days, if not hours.
    Allegedly going live tomorrow.

    Quote
    Apparently, calls on debit have flattened out a little bit as punters are selling 100K.
    So expect ETF options trading accordingly.
    Remember that selling a call with Delta is a bullish positioning targeting an expiry toward 100K!

    Care to elaborate for us mere mortals?

    First, an option primer:
    Everything you wanted to know about BTC options but were afraid to ask!

    Selling a call option with strike at 100K allows you to cash in the price, and not being exposed to a loss until the BTC price crosses 100K before expiration.
    In addition to that, selling a call, you buy futures.

    So, if the BTC expires at 100K you:
    1 Sold the option and cashed in the premium
    2. Do not pay anything to the option buyer
    3. Gain the P&L from the delta you bought at the initial price.

  • OgNasty
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    November 18, 2024, 11:30:04 PM
    Quote from: fillippone on November 18, 2024, 11:16:53 PM
    Quote from: d_eddie on November 18, 2024, 11:13:37 PM
    Quote from: fillippone on November 18, 2024, 11:05:15 PM
    Quote from: OgNasty on November 18, 2024, 10:08:21 PM
    Rumors are that options trading will go live tomorrow or Wednesday for the ETFs.  Is anybody here planning on going full ape on some 1-year call options?  I'll admit that I've taken a look at MSTR options in the past but the cost to trade them is crazy.  I wonder if it will be realistic to take a bet for the December expiry options without having to spend five figures to do it...  While I'm sure there will also be folks who think this is a top and will trade options accordingly, I think this has the potential to make a significant impact on the price of BTC.

    It should be a matter of days, if not hours.
    Allegedly going live tomorrow.

    Quote
    Apparently, calls on debit have flattened out a little bit as punters are selling 100K.
    So expect ETF options trading accordingly.
    Remember that selling a call with Delta is a bullish positioning targeting an expiry toward 100K!

    Care to elaborate for us mere mortals?

    First, an option primer:
    Everything you wanted to know about BTC options but were afraid to ask!

    Selling a call option with strike at 100K allows you to cash in the price, and not being exposed to a loss until the BTC price crosses 100K before expiration.
    In addition to that, selling a call, you buy futures.

    So, if the BTC expires at 100K you:
    1 Sold the option and cashed in the premium
    2. Do not pay anything to the option buyer
    3. Gain the P&L from the delta you bought at the initial price.

    You’re talking about selling call options on Bitcoin as we enter probably the most bullish year ever? I sell covered calls on my stocks, but my goal is for them to expire worthless. I think I’m going to be taking a long look at the prices when they go live and may consider buying a massive amount of calls at around $250K with a December 25 expiry. If we end up $300K+ they would be worth a fortune.

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    November 18, 2024, 11:35:49 PM
    Thanks for your reply fillippone. I think this topic (btc-(etf)-based options) is important and will become hotter and hotter for hodlers now that they're being negotiated at the NYSE.

    Quote from: fillippone on November 18, 2024, 11:16:53 PM
    Selling a call option with strike at 100K allows you to cash in the price,
    You mean the premium? Or the current price (supposedly less than 100k if the option is out-of-the-money) plus the premium?

    Quote
    and not being exposed to a loss until the BTC price crosses 100K before expiration.
    I think these are EU-style options - exercise possible only at expiry? But I'm not sure.

    Quote
    In addition to that, selling a call, you buy futures.
    This is where I get confused. According to this playbook, am I supposed to buy futures with the proceedings of selling the option? That would be the premium only (see my first question) - right?

    Quote
    So, if the BTC expires at 100K you:
    1 Sold the option and cashed in the premium
    2. Do not pay anything to the option buyer
    I thought it would be like - The clearing house gives me 100K and I give them one coin. So the option buyer can have their bitcoin at 100k as promised.

    Quote
    3. Gain the P&L from the delta you bought at the initial price.

    With "delta" you mean the premium - nothing related to the option (Greek) Delta?

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    November 18, 2024, 11:40:34 PM
    Quote from: OgNasty on November 18, 2024, 11:30:04 PM
    You’re talking about selling call options on Bitcoin as we enter probably the most bullish year ever? I sell covered calls on my stocks, but my goal is for them to expire worthless. I think I’m going to be taking a long look at the prices when they go live and may consider buying a massive amount of calls at around $250K with a December 25 expiry. If we end up $300K+ they would be worth a fortune.

    December 2024 or 2025? In the latter case, the premium's going to be crazy.

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    November 19, 2024, 12:01:15 AM

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