I used: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=erlang+distribution+Pr%28x+%3C%3D+1.1%29+%2C+k%3D10%2C+lambda%3D10

Replacing (x <= 1.1) with x=.993729936189684

yeah, and it was all in the last week essentially that pulled the 30 day average down about 10 points. . .  So figure how bad its been the last week and there is your answer. .

Just this week - about 3 of the days this week I am about 1/3 of my normal average, so it has definitely been a very bad run of luck this week. .    and its like the hits keep on coming with long block after long block. .   

Here's hoping things normalize themselves, but it almost seems like the normalization will occur with the luck metric resetting itself vs us getting better luck to normalize those numbers. . .

No doubt.. .   I check once a day or so. . .   If I see 6 blocks looking for confirmations (about 36 hours worth of stuff), then its about average. . .  If you only see two or one (like right now), then that means there haven't been a lot of blocks done. . .   right now its one block, which means the current block was long enough for most of the earlier rounds to all be confirmed. . .

My guess would be that the Mhash/s* is adjusting since it's on to a new block. That hash rate number is based on "shares so far" on the current block so the bigger rigs probably take over a little faster and then it smooths out as time goes on. Just my theory. I guess it would only be problematic in really fast solved blocks? But I don't think your equipment has any issues if it comes back over a short time.

Thanks for the reply -

I may not have explained as well as I could have. It doesn't seem to me to be a short time (relatively speaking I guess) and not just in blocks that are solved quickly. I usually am running between 96 and 101 Gh/s and my miners are steady within that range until a block is found. Once a block is found and the stat page has the block in 'processing', I am hashing between 85 and 89 Gh/s for the 35 - 40 minutes (or so) it takes to finish processing. I watch for a recovery to the 96 to 101 Gh/s rate and it only comes back after I have a reward posted and 'processing' is no longer displayed for the block. This has happened 7 times in a row that I have made sure to watch. I was going to wait for the current block to finish before posting, but its taking forever 

I originally thought it might be adjustment to the new block...and I guess it is still possible, but it just seemed odd that the hash rate dropped right when the block was found and processing started, then came back when processing was finished for every block I watched, no matter the speed of the block. I guess I will make some more observations that are better timed to see if I find more clues.

Thanks again...

Website down for anyone else?

Things that make you go hmmmmm... "luck" my ass

Touché Dubbs!

Connected to stratum.bitcoin.cz diff 4 with stratum as user *****

website down for me but miner can connect....


Loc:Singapore

i (almost) trippled my hashing power on 6.feb.

due to our "pool luck" my earnings are BELOW the former average - so i have tripple the hashing power but not even the same earnings..

i lost almost an entire week of my new hardwars capabilities.

help me people, i really WANT to stay at sllush, but its getting harder every minute!

of course you're right, it is supposed to get harder. but less then one third of earnings in a span of one week is in no way acceptable.