Just waking up (in CA)....reading the message about migrating from slush.  was the site under attack the past 10 days or so, or is this recent ?  Is that why our "luck" was so bad ?  if so, why are things not more transparent ?

PM sent

That's what organofcorti tried to explain, but it's easier to whinecomplain i guess.

Right now CDF is at 69.26 % and there are 3092255627 shares contributed in current round, while the difficulty is 2621404453, so:
we have 3092255627 2621404453 = ~1.18 times the difficulty shares. Check on the CDF graph where is 1.18 on the horizontal axis and the CDF value is on the vertical axis. It shows that ~69% of all blocks are found before the number of shares we have so far.
Or otherwise said - once CDF passes over 50% the current round will reduce the daily pool luck.
If you check the same calculations against several rounds you should be more and more closer to 50% CDF (or 100% luck).

Right now the pool dropped to ~766Th/s, so it's 100Th/s or 13% less - with floating hashrate you can't be sure when it was normal to find a block, but the CDF will always be the same, no matter if the pool is 1Th or 1Ph

The website is just a representation/stats of the mining and is in no way related to luck or rewards. Slush pool will keep working and collect your rewards even if the website is shutdown for a week.

'backstage problems' with stratum servers may affect the pool, but then the 'Approx. cluster performance' will also drop. When pool's total hashpower goes down, then it's expected that the time to find a block will increase - it is no different from several miners hoping away from the pool.

Right now the pool hashrate dropped, but that's more likely a network connection problem not related in any way to the pool and out of control of the pool operators, so yes there is a problem, but no it's not a pool problem ... or just someone with 100Th hopped from the pool and there is no problem at all

just got done with a bunch of back and forth emails with support from Coinbase. I found a few +0.00000001 deposits in my account and their "verify text" system was done for hours. This was happening the same time all these attacks were occurring. Coinbase support got things cleared up, but still makes me uneasy since the Bitcoin I do have. Took forever to get. I'd rather not lose it.

This is exactly right.  Based on the CDF you can determine what should happen (at 50% for everything to be equal). .   which means its adjusted for difficulty. . .  Its obviously not "lucky" right now since we have an abnormally large amount of blocks that are way exceeding the CDF 50% level (which is the result of the large/long running rounds). .  The run from this last week has single handidly pulled the entire months luck down about 13% as it was near 101 just last week I believe..

So daily luck is a good number to look at but isn't reflective.  When it runs into weekly, its a bit more disturbing and now its reflected in the month - definitely a bad run right now.

That's what everyone who 'does the numbers' seems to be intimating. Stick with it, I reckon. Just because we've thrown some bad dice doesn't affect the probability of a six next time round.

I get enough assignments in grad school where I don't come here for additional formulas to compute. My reason is not to bitch about it; I'm pointing out the flaw where people act as if they know for a fact that "luck" is "pure". If something technical on the website that we don't know about results in longer rounds then "luck" is contaminated by the special cause event. I've had people tell me on this thread to look up the definition of "luck", but my point is the term definition assumes an uncorrupt system of chance. When I use the word corruption this does not mean wrongdoing or theft, it simply means a force other than pure luck is at play. Everytime we have a terrible run there is a technical problem, sometimes it is announced after, and everytime it is resolved we get restored to normal state that is perceived as "good" luck, which is really just nothing more than "normal"- it's perception.

bitch bitch bitch bitch bitch bitch bitch

Seriously, if you people think that Slush's pool is so bad, why do you stick around?

LEAVE

Find another pool.

But have you ever heard the quote that starts out with "the grass is always greener...."

Me? I started here and I'm staying here.

Can't we all just, get along?

The grass is always greener where you water it!