Fascinating. Andreas Brekken just stated on livestream that the ABC team reached out some time ago to all exchanges, and pushed out a patch that invalidates deep reorgs. Further, that all exchanges will be implementing another patch that includes what he termed a centralized checkpoint. The net result of all this, if true, is that SV will be unable to reorg the ABC chain out of existence. No matter what the relative hashpower may be.
There had previously been a shared assumption that SV forces had dedicated a large chunk of hash power to mining a parallel secret chain of empty ABC blocks. One that they would later -- at a time of maximum disruption -- release this chain. This secretly mined empty block SV-ABC chain, being longer than the ABC-ABC chain, which would invalidate the ABC-ABC chain. This would have invalidated all the previous 'settled' ABC txs.
Assuming that ABC indeed has all the exchanges lined up, this attack is largely nullified.
The ABC-ers seem to celebrating what they are terming a win. I don't understand this, unless their concept of 'win' is 'unable to be reorged out of existence'. Certainly, this does not preclude SV existing into the future, or even still to become the preponderance of economic activity.
And I was so looking forward to seeing an actual hash war.
Though the future will still be quite fascinating regardless. I've not seen what SV's response will be.
What you have seen/are seeing is exactly a hash war. What else were you expecting? 51% attacks on the other chain? Reorg chaos? Well, that is what Wright was threatening with... and it hasn't happened yet. So yeah, I guess it is a win for ABC (which said nothing about attacking/killing SV). There is still some minor probability for a surprise but I wouldn't count on it.
Maybe when Calvin folds and separate ways with Wright everything will be more clear?
I will state this one more time: Contentious forks are BAD in every sense.
