A very broad view stretching upto 3 years like this is going to have to be quite elastic with the boundaries.   It seems from the chart above we could revisit last summers highs, I'd agree if we meet that point and it goes onto becomes a lower high we can say we have a bearish point on a wider time frame.    After an accumulation of these signals the arguments weight might shift over to your bearish belief on BTC price.
   Do you get any of what Tone Vays said on 4k being quite probable this year, I believe he states this can happen in the next few months.

Tone Vays occupies a weird niche. Yes he's a BTC maximalist, but he's also sort of a perma-bear. He's constantly shorting uptrends. I can't remember the last time he actually forecast a macro bull trend.


A year ago, I was saying the same thing. "We need another capitulation and long term accumulation bottom just like 2015." I don't think that's actually true anymore. We were just conditioned by the 2014-2015 bear market to expect that.

Well that covers the capitulation part, sure.


Compared to 9 months ranging at the bottom in 2015. That's the "long term accumulation" part. A lot of experienced traders (including me) were blindsided by the speed of the recovery in Q1 last year. Look at this shit:


Or this thread from mikeywith. When the market cut through $6K like butter, we had to change our tunes. I took that experience as a hard lesson about recency bias.

A year later, sgbett still hasn't changed his tune.

Isn't it funny how something always comes up!?

He sgbett we recently break below 200 week MA and hold support at 300 week MA in the history of bitcoin first time we touch 300 week & start bounce of that level what do you think now..? still ABC Elite Wave Correction  or TIME will tel the Price..?

Oh god you're still trying to push this prediction haha wow. It took a worldwide all-market panic sell crash to even get Bitcoin to go just under $4000 for a few minutes, upon which it immediately rebounded $1000, and now its back to almost 3 times your predicted price like 5 weeks later. Come on give this up already dude. Your prediction was dead in the water a year ago. Given that not even the panic crash could bring Bitcoin anywhere near this price, not even the bottom of the 2018 bear market crash could bring it under $3000, your prediction is pure fantasy.

From his posts, I see sgbett is a big holder of BSV and he went all for BSV. He said BSV is the real bitcoin, not BTC. He believe BSV will "replace" BTC by 2021, as BSV price will be $2k+ while BTC will be sub $3k. Sgbett is a very smart guy and I'm very impressed with his previous predictions about BTC prices. But by now, some years after the BCH and BSV were "born", we all see that BTC is still the head of cryptocurrency train and I don't think there will be one day, when BTC is crashing down to sub $3k, the BSV still rising up to 2k$. I think if the worst case happen when BTC will go down to sub 3k$, the BSV price will be under $100 for sure.

reputation!? *spits coffee* .... I'm an absolute nobody! I rarely post these days as this isn't really a Bitcoin forum anymore for me.

You want to look at the multi-thousand follower talking heads on twitter if you want to see who is trying to "influence"

I'm happy with my forecast, what's another 10 years?

With a huge depression anything can happen. But without huge depression no way.  Also bottoms happen for a short time. Same as ATHs. Very hard to sell at ATH and very hard to buy at bottom. For those that hold none of this matters much. Except being sorry not to buy more when the bottom happened.

So you say down.... so as every call you make... whatever circumstances....

Mmmmm

Good this isn’t investment advice, please put that sentence in your signature, under your avatar and always under every post ... only make those words larger or capslock....

Healthy mind advice... ^