yes, noone cared on halving day or plus/minus some weeks, but:

price also bubbled from 13 to 266 a few months after the halving.

imo there will be both:

• reaction before (people thinking ahead, market "pricing in") and
• reaction afterwards (real effect of supply halving takes hold)

imo the market does try to price in the halving effect but strongly underestimates it (even after having seen what happened last time).

If we look at depicted envelope of roughly 1 year around the halving, we can see the price went from ~$5 to ~$120. Will that repeat in that way? Probably not exactly, but I think it's likely we'll see a 10-bagger or more (seen from roughly $300 level). In that sense I contradict the 1-2 year sideways prediction (unless we include whole 2015 as "sideways in 200-300 range"), I think the "quiet period" will be shorter, maybe until spring '16.

(side-note: in the end everything is halving-induced because without halving we'd have unlimited supply and probably 0 value.)

I agree that the market likes to switch it up so it's not just easy for everyone to win. LTC is a perfect example. Halving occurred yesterday and LTC did nothing. Much of the pump 2 months ago was a ponzi playing the strings of those who expected a rally but were waiting to see conviction first. It was a perfectly timed and executed P&D and likely wore the market out well before the halving event actually went into effect, which is why we see a decline going into halving. Anything can happen with BTC and it may or may not face a similar situation come July.

On the other hand, BTC may have priced in two (or more) halvings with the bubble to 1200. There is no telling at this time, but if BTC were to have the same thing happen as LTC, then we can understand why you can't just assume that a halving should automatically double everyone's investment. Wouldn't that be too easy?

Since you are asking about feelings, i feel we're in for a shock. Like RynDiclem said above, the market likes to psin things around so that it's not so obvious. If i were to ask around what is the least likely price of bitcoin to expect in the coming months, i bet a majority (75%) would completely rule out $50 as insanity. If you think about it, that's like Jeffrey Tucker making a forecast of BTC at $1000 and getting scoffed at. Maybe, we're in for an inverse $1175 ATH.

Just what i feel.

Why do you think that double digits are very much on the table still ?

Thanks for elaboration, statistical talking, what is the % to hit ow $100's and double digits ?

+1
Everything except bulls says that double digits is possible. The fact that sentiment snaps back out of a bearish tone overnight if a large market buy goes over the ticker is a big reason... Sentiment hasn't been battered quite enough yet. There is no reason to see a doubling of price for a wave-1 (in 12 days) after an 18 month bear market. The sentiment of a wave-1 should be "This is just another dead cat bounce", and not only from the random 6-char newbs created today. It should be everyone wondering if it's even worth buying anymore. The few bulls that remain should be the ones that have to defend their position on the forum and have the burden of proof of why this time it's different. THAT's when sentiment has shifted enough to say a bottom is near, or in.

After a break of $152 (or whatever your exchange of choice' January low was) we have triangle support in the 115 area, then $50 (the first dump in April 2013) then it's at $32. There is nothing but horizontal supports remaining after that.

IMO, we could only say long after the bottom is in, once we have a clear reversal. On the 1D-3D timeframe, an impulsive move off those lows (say, in the low $100s) would at least indicate that we can expect another impulse to follow. It wouldn't mean double digits are gone forever, but it would at least indicate they we are in a new bullish cycle on that time frame. (It could of course be a bullish correction in a larger bearish trend as well)

No danger in double digits. Or single digits for that matter. Those that thing "bitcoin is dead" if we see double digits are just people who will be shaken out. Current price =/= existential failure of the protocol, nor down trending adoption. The latter two are what matter to me in determining bitcoin's long term future. I am a long term bull, to be clear.

This is probably true.

For the first time since being deeply involved in bitcoin scene, I felt sad that I missed the buy oppertunity of the lowest lows of $200.

Double/Single digits are my ultimate dream ever my friend, and yes, it's a lifetime buy.

I will never let this event pass out of my hands, don't worry

When price dipped just below 200 two days ago,why didn't anyone push it even lower?
There were like 4k (1.5k on levarage) coins down to 150 or below @ Bitfinex.Very, very little resistance.In fact, many bulls already capitulated before that night.
Tens of thousands of coins were sold into bids all the way down from 300 and you're telling me 1.5k coins (on levarage) were just beyond the reach of every bearwhale out there? You've got to be shitting me!
You're probably realizing where I'm going with this. We didn't go much lower than 200, and probably never will, because market manipulators won't allow it.Right now they squeezed a crap load of longs, they will probably keep this current price range with occasional dips even below 200, then guess what? They'll do the opposite and squeeze the shorts.
Nothing new under the sun...
We need many more high rollers in this game so that gross manipulation of the market, the kind we see today, will become high risk - low reward, just like an attempt to gain control of the bitcoin network.