<-- always. ^^

Thank god there are people like Pruden around, lol.

I'd like to share some thoughts about altcoins rise-fall-death cycle.

I noticed when Bitcoin enters some long bearish cycle - always appears some fork which starts to rise to btc. NMC, LTC and now DRK. After some time fork dies and next fork appears. So I'll try to analyze this phenomenon.

Let's call next fork "shit".

1. When Bitcoin enters some noticed bearish cycle, people start to be bored. They want permanent rally.
2. Bored people look around and here is a "shit". The same Proof Of Work  shit as Bitcoin, but has some special features.
3. "Oh my god, it's a new paradigm! " - people say and start to sell bitcoin and buy shit. Bitcoin bearish phase accelerates.
4. Meanwhile shit market saturates,  Bitcoin market passing capitulation phase and starts to recover. Bitcoin becomes bullish.
5. People keeping shit - watch for rise of Bitcoin. They move their funds back and create additional bullish acceleration to bitcoin. Shit drops.
6. Bitcoin market saturates and enters correction.
7. Back to point 1.

I call it "small shit cycle", when Bitcoin and shit go in antiphase.

Every alt fork makes few shit cycles and then slowly goes to a toilet pan. Because new alt with "new paradigm" appears and enters it's first shit cycle, it's first step to a pan.

I call it "big shit cycle" - when shit after few cycles goes to a pan and another shit appears.

Meanwhile, every altcoin place is a pan because of "Long fork theorem" which CJDNS founder told me in IRC in 2012.

This is only theoretical thoughts, based on multi year market observations. I hope in some time I'll make a science paper. Hehe.

No, this is very serious economic and psychological since work "Passing through a shit cycle on a wave of greed".

I don't buy what I didn't researched. I don't research because I know it will cost nothing eventually. Because of long fork threat.

Every PoW fork uses limited resource - electrical power to enforce it's security. As long as power is limited, miners aim to mine more popular fork. More popular is more secure and visa versa.

So more popular and secure fork drain power, security and popularity from all others. One most popular PoW fork kills others by its existence.

This is long fork threat.

Bitcoin is like Saturn god eating his children.

got it.. crystal clear.

Better get our asses to Pluto to avoid being eaten.



(but in all seriousness, I very much agree with you Luc - I have had the same thought for a long time now.)

From the functionality side, this reminds me of Peter R's Altcoin Narrative Cycle.

Prediction in act.

On 208 hit next target 120.