Thanks for the update, luc. Much appreciated, as always.
One idea, related to your (log) trendlines... Previously during this bear market, I believe we went through a pair of "accelerating downtrends", as in: the downwards channel upper trendline from Dec 2013 to June/July 2014 was replaced by a new, even sharper downtrend, that lasted from July 2014 to June 2015.
If that's an accurate way to look at it, it also makes me wonder if the way out this bear market is perhaps not by going straight to another upwards channel (unlikely anyway, as you said yourself, or even by going directly into an extended flat period, but whether perhaps the market first has to go through one more downwards trend, albeit, one that is this time
less severe than the previous one.Which, roughly, could look like this:
Yes, I know, not much points on the upper line so far. Like I said, I wonder if that *could* happen, not that the data already supports this *has* happened. Also, if you think the lower line looks like it's broken way too often, I consider this channel to be active from ~April only, so it's outside the date range.
Anyway, it's more of a idle thought than a prediction I'm much committed to. One thing: if this channel would be active, as severe as it looks (since it could take price to a new LL), it
does actually have a lower rate of decline than the previous channel, from July to June, so it would fit the idea of being a "less sharp dowtrend replacing the previous, sharper one" (despite taking it to a new low).
(EDIT) Very sloppy illustration of what I mean by "one DT replacing another one"...
From #1 (yellow) to #2 (orange), which was sharper down, from #2 to #3 (red), which is less sharp down.
