I had my local llm prepare a shit list of all wr's with at least 10 target share.
I spent 3 hours designing the algo and think its pretty robust.
Big surprise
Quentin "Cement Hands" Johnson is ONLY Second !!!
2026 NFL FRAUD BOARD | WEEKS 1-4Every qualifying WR ranked by confidence-weighted fraud percentile.
Rank 1 = biggest fraud; rank 77 = best. Comp = composite score, 1.000 = worst,
0.000 = spotless. Qualification: WR, target share >10%, >=8 routes, >=10 targets,
all 4 weeks (cohort of 77).Legend metrics:- Sh%/Tg -- target share (player targets team targets) total targets
- Drp% -- drop rate: FTN charted drops ALL targets (drops are only
charted on catchable balls, so uncatchables dilute the rate by design)
- YPT -- yards per target: per-target efficiency. THE primary fraud metric:
volume without per-target production is the definition of empty.
- YPRR -- yards per route run: per-route efficiency. Scheme-confounded
(3-WR vs 5-WR roles), so weighted at exactly 1/5 of YPT.
- TCR% -- true catch rate: receptions catchable balls.
- CCR% -- contested catch rate: contested catches contested targets.
HIGH = great receiver (pulls a player DOWN the list); LOW = pushes UP.
'-' = fewer than 4 contested targets.
- cTRG% -- contested targets all targets.
- C/T% -- catch rate: receptions all targets.
- Comp -- the overall score. Every stat is first graded against the other
YPT 45.8%, drop 28%, contested 14%, YPRR 9.2% (= 1/5 YPT), TCR 3%.
Each weight is further scaled by evidence confidence: log ramps on the
metric's own sample (rate and/or data points) -- less data = less weight,
no binary thresholds anywhere.
# Player Tm Sh%/Tg Drp% YPT YPRR TCR% CCR% cTRG C/T% Comp
-- ------------------ --- ------- ---- ----- ---- ----- ----- ---- ---- -----
1 Rashid Shaheed SEA 13.0/15 6.7 4.87 0.89 87.5 - 13.3 46.7 0.898
2 Quentin Johnston LAC 16.2/19 10.5 5.68 0.93 77.8 - 5.3 36.8 0.886
3 Courtland Sutton DEN 17.6/22 0.0 3.91 0.69 100.0 - 13.6 40.9 0.830
4 Ryan Flournoy DAL 16.0/23 4.3 4.52 0.83 81.2 - 13.0 56.5 0.820
5 DK Metcalf PIT 22.9/33 9.1 6.45 1.26 80.0 30.0 30.3 48.5 0.783
6 Jaylen Waddle DEN 20.8/26 11.5 7.12 1.64 80.0 25.0 15.4 61.5 0.766
7 Terry McLaurin WAS 17.1/22 9.1 6.41 1.41 71.4 42.9 31.8 45.5 0.761
8 Antonio Williams WAS 14.7/19 5.3 6.53 1.68 85.7 - 10.5 63.2 0.749
9 Makai Lemon PHI 14.2/15 0.0 4.33 0.56 100.0 - 6.7 66.7 0.749
10 DeMario Douglas NE 14.4/17 0.0 4.82 0.83 81.8 - 5.9 52.9 0.747
11 Brian Thomas Jr. JAX 14.1/14 14.3 7.50 1.48 75.0 33.3 42.9 64.3 0.738
12 Matthew Golden GB 24.7/37 10.8 7.41 1.93 78.3 22.2 24.3 48.6 0.724
13 Stefon Diggs WAS 24.0/31 3.2 5.48 1.60 90.0 40.0 16.1 58.1 0.705
14 Wan'Dale Robinson TEN 21.3/23 0.0 5.35 1.16 88.9 - 13.0 69.6 0.703
15 Jordan Addison MIN 22.0/22 4.5 7.41 1.27 84.6 - 4.5 50.0 0.680
16 Khalil Shakir BUF 20.5/23 8.7 7.65 1.89 88.2 - 4.3 65.2 0.666
17 Xavier Worthy KC 18.6/22 0.0 6.05 1.05 82.4 25.0 18.2 63.6 0.664
18 Xavier Hutchinson HOU 18.8/26 0.0 6.38 1.48 80.0 20.0 38.5 46.2 0.660
19 Emeka Egbuka TB 19.8/24 0.0 6.42 1.11 93.8 - 12.5 62.5 0.656
20 Keenan Allen IND 16.3/20 0.0 5.00 1.30 92.9 37.5 40.0 65.0 0.648
21 Michael Wilson ARI 29.7/44 0.0 5.86 1.64 89.3 18.2 25.0 56.8 0.648
22 Adonai Mitchell NYJ 13.6/15 13.3 8.20 2.02 69.2 33.3 40.0 60.0 0.646
23 Dohnte Meyers CIN 10.3/16 12.5 8.06 1.43 78.6 50.0 25.0 68.8 0.639
24 Jahan Dotson ATL 14.0/13 0.0 7.31 1.17 100.0 - 7.7 46.2 0.638
25 KC Concepcion CLE 24.3/28 0.0 5.14 1.21 89.5 50.0 14.3 60.7 0.627
26 Chris Bell MIA 12.7/13 0.0 7.08 1.18 83.3 42.9 53.8 38.5 0.626
27 Devaughn Vele NO 18.1/31 3.2 7.29 1.24 87.5 50.0 19.4 67.7 0.623
28 George Pickens DAL 19.4/28 10.7 8.04 1.52 85.7 66.7 21.4 64.3 0.601
29 Roman Wilson PIT 16.7/24 4.2 7.83 1.77 87.5 - 12.5 58.3 0.587
30 Dyami Brown WAS 10.1/13 0.0 6.62 1.10 77.8 50.0 30.8 53.8 0.583
31 Jameson Williams DET 15.7/25 12.0 9.16 1.41 76.2 60.0 20.0 64.0 0.576
32 Josh Downs IND 22.8/28 0.0 7.21 1.55 100.0 30.0 35.7 60.7 0.564
33 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 28.9/46 0.0 6.59 1.85 96.9 35.7 30.4 67.4 0.554
34 Dontayvion Wicks PHI 18.9/20 5.0 9.85 1.67 85.7 - 10.0 60.0 0.529
35 Carnell Tate TEN 29.6/32 6.2 8.38 2.16 91.7 - 9.4 68.8 0.514
36 Luther Burden III CHI 24.0/29 0.0 7.55 2.01 100.0 16.7 20.7 65.5 0.514
37 Malik Washington MIA 27.5/28 0.0 7.82 1.96 89.5 - 7.1 60.7 0.503
38 Chris Godwin Jr. TB 14.9/18 0.0 7.89 1.04 100.0 - 5.6 88.9 0.502
39 Ja'Marr Chase CIN 18.1/28 0.0 7.57 1.75 91.3 40.0 17.9 75.0 0.486
40 Ted Hurst III TB 13.2/16 0.0 8.00 1.17 72.7 50.0 37.5 50.0 0.483
41 Malachi Fields NYG 13.5/15 0.0 8.40 1.40 100.0 - 6.7 53.3 0.462
42 Christian Watson GB 21.3/32 6.2 10.34 2.43 80.0 30.0 31.2 62.5 0.451
43 Deebo Samuel Sr. SF 15.5/17 11.8 10.88 2.15 87.5 - 0.0 82.4 0.448
44 Ladd McConkey LAC 14.5/17 5.9 10.76 2.10 85.7 - 11.8 70.6 0.437
45 Romeo Doubs NE 16.9/20 5.0 10.15 1.88 85.7 50.0 20.0 60.0 0.433
46 Cooper Kupp SEA 10.4/12 0.0 9.50 1.31 90.0 - 16.7 75.0 0.433
47 Mike Evans SF 21.8/24 4.2 8.88 2.63 94.4 60.0 20.8 70.8 0.427
48 Malik Nabers NYG 23.4/26 0.0 8.00 2.04 100.0 50.0 15.4 69.2 0.411
49 Isaiah Williams NYJ 10.9/12 8.3 11.25 1.12 90.9 - 25.0 83.3 0.397
50 Parker Washington JAX 26.3/26 0.0 8.77 2.30 100.0 33.3 23.1 61.5 0.387
51 Tre Harris LAC 17.9/21 0.0 9.95 1.85 86.7 - 14.3 61.9 0.364
52 Davante Adams LA 24.4/38 5.3 10.26 2.47 91.7 71.4 18.4 57.9 0.364
53 Chris Olave NO 28.1/48 2.1 10.23 2.73 94.6 42.9 14.6 72.9 0.359
54 Tre Tucker LV 16.9/23 0.0 10.13 1.94 100.0 20.0 21.7 65.2 0.358
55 Garrett Wilson NYJ 28.2/31 0.0 8.71 2.16 92.3 64.3 45.2 77.4 0.355
56 Tee Higgins CIN 25.2/39 2.6 10.28 2.80 89.3 45.5 28.2 64.1 0.353
57 Rome Odunze CHI 16.5/20 10.0 11.65 1.89 87.5 80.0 25.0 70.0 0.351
58 Tetairoa McMillan CAR 26.5/39 0.0 9.87 2.35 104.0 25.0 10.3 66.7 0.346
59 DJ Moore BUF 17.9/20 0.0 8.90 2.47 100.0 - 5.0 60.0 0.343
60 Denzel Boston CLE 19.1/22 4.5 12.91 2.10 81.2 37.5 36.4 59.1 0.330
61 DeVonta Smith PHI 25.5/27 0.0 8.70 2.24 100.0 100.0 14.8 70.4 0.329
62 Kalif Raymond CHI 19.0/23 0.0 9.57 2.20 95.5 - 4.3 91.3 0.327
63 Tyquan Thornton KC 12.7/15 6.7 14.60 2.23 91.7 40.0 33.3 73.3 0.322
64 Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 36.5/42 4.8 11.45 4.15 88.9 37.5 19.0 76.2 0.313
65 Puka Nacua LA 13.5/21 0.0 9.48 2.88 100.0 - 14.3 66.7 0.300
66 Isaac TeSlaa DET 10.7/17 0.0 11.00 1.44 100.0 - 11.8 52.9 0.294
67 Jalen Coker CAR 15.0/22 0.0 10.09 2.44 100.0 - 9.1 81.8 0.284
68 Zay Flowers BAL 21.6/22 9.1 16.00 6.29 90.0 - 13.6 81.8 0.273
69 Rashee Rice KC 14.4/17 0.0 11.18 2.00 92.9 - 11.8 76.5 0.259
70 Jakobi Meyers JAX 15.2/15 0.0 11.00 1.65 100.0 - 6.7 86.7 0.232
71 Mack Hollins NE 16.9/20 0.0 10.45 2.30 107.1 - 10.0 75.0 0.222
72 CeeDee Lamb DAL 31.9/46 0.0 10.83 3.48 90.2 50.0 26.1 80.4 0.217
73 Rashod Bateman BAL 14.7/15 0.0 11.40 1.68 100.0 - 0.0 73.3 0.201
74 Justin Jefferson MIN 17.0/17 0.0 10.53 3.20 100.0 - 17.6 76.5 0.198
75 Nico Collins HOU 13.0/18 0.0 10.72 2.88 107.7 77.8 50.0 77.8 0.194
76 Keon Coleman BUF 14.3/16 0.0 13.56 2.38 100.0 - 12.5 87.5 0.133
77 Drake London ATL 26.9/25 0.0 14.80 3.98 100.0 - 4.0 80.0 0.110
Built from public NFL game data for weeks 1-4 of
2026 -- every one of the 4,003 thrown balls was matched to the receiver it was
thrown to. Spot-checked every stat 108 times against
three independent public sites (drops, contested catches, target shares, routes
run): all 108 checks matched our numbers exactly -- zero disagreements.
Data is complete through Oct 8, 2026.
Obviously this is not based on target share nor ff points generated, this is calculated on performance only and should vary widely as the data set increases but it does point out some interseting things that I'll let you guys decide for yourselves. 
