So you believe the outcomes of awards and political events/elections are easier to predict than sport matches. I believe I can agree with that statement, but it is not easier in general for all the public or all bettors, otherwise there would not be people who lose money as often in these markets either. In order to make money off political bets, one needs to have a good intuition and understanding of the market and the political/social situation of a country, otherwise, one would be just guessing and would be more likely to fail our prediction.
Your points are completely valid. Personally, I found more success betting on political markets even though I don't really possess much political knowledge which is why I felt that such bets are easier to predict.
But how come you have been successful with political bets without having much experience or political knowledge as you claim, because in my case, I would need to continue to consume many news and political commentaries for me the be able to feel confident enough to place bets on either Donald Trump or Joe Biden.
Are you sure you don't keep yourself up-to-date with American politics or you only use your intuition to successfully guess on your bets ?
Because, politics is kinda like sports in some sense, the most informed one is, it becomes more likely for anyone of us to get bets right and take profit off it.
On a side note, I wonder whether the people who believe in Democrats cheating on elections will dare to place bets on this incoming election, of they do, it would be kind of a contradiction, in my opinion.
