Newer updates seem to indicate that Ukraine is going to be opening a front across the dnipro river. Evacuation of villages and unconfirmed reports of troops gathering in the area seem to indicate that Ukraine may choose to launch some tentative offensive to free the territory in a less costly fashion.
Zelensky can evacuate all of Ukraine; it wont help him take Tokmak before the cold weather, not to mention Melitopol and Berdyansk.
The entire result of the months-long Ukrainian counter-offensive is two completely destroyed villages of 500 people, Rabotino and Kleshcheevka. Moreover, to control Kleshcheevka, Ukraine will still have to try.
That's ok. If the front does not collapse to Tokmak, see you there next year. However, I wonder why is the RF army building more fortifications precisely around Tokmak. Maybe they are not as well informed as you are.
Edit to add: I think they have done exactly the same I just did: click "measure distance" from the front to the centre of Tokmak. What would you say is an standard "artillery range" (hint: 20 km is less).
Unconfirmed - pro-Ruzzian sources are speaking of an evacuation by Ukraine of nearly all villages along the dnipro river ; during winter, the river will be covered by a 1 foot thick layer of solid ice; There's no "Surovikin" line in the shores of the rives. Make of it what you want.
Also (unconfirmed rumour), UK has sent to Ukraine a drone capable of carrying and launching an anti-air missile. The compensation for job risk may raise quite fast for Ruzzian helicopter pilots.
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Hydra 400 - This can be carried in the back of a truck and be ready to fly in a few minutes. My guess, UK is going to "combat test-it" in Ruzzian helicopters. I think sales will be good in the future.
Well lets see, in Kherson coldest month is January with
Average High:1.4C, Average low:-4.4C, Daily mean:-1.6C so a foot thick layer of solid ice on a river with moving water without a dam you say? A light car *might* be able to drive through if it gets extra cold, but forget about tanks. So sending soldiers in without heavy armor where they're backed into a river and all of the resupply lines and retreat would go over ice? You must be some kind of general, what could possibly go wrong with such plan? How many thousands of soldier lives should they try this ingenious plan with?
Can you stop these silly propaganda rumors? I'm still not sure if you're spreading this hopium for yourself, or you actually believe that you are convincing anyone that some miracle game changer weapon that can change the outcome of the war is just right around the corner? Anyone with half a brain would laugh at these "rumors". Deja vu
The latest shipment of weapons from US to Ukraine includes a significant number of "switchblade" drones (technically "munitions" as they are single use).
This is how they look:
As you can see, they look like a crap taken from a "Five below" shop, uh? And that is not that far from the truth to be honest. This costs around 6000 USD and comes in two flavours - tank destroyer and ant-personnel. It works like this - your average Joe McSoldier carries a tube that is not too heavy and requires 10 minutes to get ready. This happens well away the front line and well away the usual artillery range. You do not need an exceptional IQ to use this.
The drone is launched and can roam around for 40 mins or so and cover a few tens of miles. It carries sensors and the like and, once the operator decides there is an interesting target, it fixes on it and "kamikazes" onto it - be a tank, other vehicles or a platoon having tea.
Total cost of the operation:
Drone: 6000 USD
Infantry grunt: 30 USD per one hour of work.
Total loss for the enemy:
If hits a T-90: 2 million USDv + trained crew of 3
If hits a T-72: 0.6 million USD + trained crew of 5
If hits other stuff: 100 to 500k USD.
The big bingo is when you hit a S-400 anti-air system. We are talking millions USD.
Let's say the enemy shot's it down with a SAM:
Cost of a stinger or similar: 40k
If you are stupid and use a S-400: 10M USD
I am sure that
most people in the forum understand that this is a game changer. Had Ukraine had 100 of these when the 40 mile long column was a sitting duck on the road to Kyiv, the war would have been quite different.
Remember,
if you are a Russian soldier, you do not have to die for Putin. Sell your vehicle or aircraft to me or other honest buyers and see your family again some day or go west and relax all cool.
Please notice in bold my "make of it want you want" - I can see you have followed my instructions to the letter and start imagining a tank division running to Crimea through the ice. Good boy.
Re Switchblades, they have been used in the front, so as usual you are trying to attack ad-hominem (by questioning the veracity of something that is well documented to be true), which is usually as sign of having no argument.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhZzsVkdLAkSwitchblade 6000 US
Tank 2000000 US
Any other questions?
The Hydra-400... you will need to tell me a bit more how this is not correct, because the vehicle exists, it has the capabilities I say and I clearly stated that is unconfirmed that these may be sent to Ukraine... so....maybe or maybe next year.
Furthermore, I would say that drones have certainly been a game changer in the war. Particularly the "suicide ones" like switchblade and many other. Just listen to a million testimonies from soldiers and view hours of footage. Not to mention the surveillance ones.
RE how many lives... as said many times before, you need to ask Putin how many more lives are still ok for him. He withdraws, pays war compensations, goes to be judged for war crimes and all this ends.
You have put forward your "peace plan" consisting in Ukraine surrendering. It simply does not work, a Ruzzia that manages to win territory from this war means a Ruzzia that comes back for more in 5 years. do not pretend to care about lives, you are just another troll... a not particularly effective one.
If you think of it is almost funny: you punch someone in the face, all the sudden you find out that the guy is actually much bigger than you thought and is hitting back - then you say "oh, come on, until when are we going to keep fighting each other". So cynical.
You can close your eyes and start imagine anything you want, there's just no need to write about it here, attempt to write something informative, constructive and objective as best as you can (surely this crap doesn't come close)
Are you saying that you can make up any fairy tale, like rumors of aliens providing weapons to Ukraine, as long as you follow it up with "Make of it what you want."? I guess the reader would make of it that you're pushing yet another silly propaganda.
-First claims switchblade will be a "game changer", does math for switchblade vs S-400
I mention that they objectively have not been a game changer, in fact not many even mention them anymore
-Now changes the tune from "game changer" to that they "have been used in the front"
and then generalizes so switchblades became "drones have certainly been a game changer" and finally claims ad hominem?
Does more silly math, now can you do the same kind of math for RU mine vs Leopard 2, and attempt to explain what conclusions can be drawn from that and the point of such maths? Weren't there claims from UA of some soldier shooting down a RU jet with some firearm, do math on that cost of bullet vs jet to mislead some more.
What next shall we expect from you, how Ukraine might receive LGM-30G Minuteman, maybe or maybe next year, or a year after that, or never?
I have seen hours of footage of drones, but probably unlike you, I've seen hours of footage from both sides. If you watch them one sided, only conclusion that can be made is that drones are used and video serves as a great propaganda and morale booster for both sides. So the real questions is not whether drones are effective weapon, but which side is benefit from them more? Now I'd love to hear some analysis on that, like a chart of monthly UA claimed drone launches and their claimed success rate, or some proposal for 10.000s of thousand of drones for UA? Here's some info on the RU side:
Cheap Russian drone a menace to Ukrainian troops and equipment
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As Russia's invasion enters its 17th month, Ukrainian forces say Moscow is ramping up its use of low-cost suicide drones that are capable of destroying equipment many times their value and not easy to defend against
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Videos posted by pro-Russian social media channels over the last month appear to show Lancet drones damaging or destroying Ukraine's valuable Western-donated equipment, such as a Leopard 2 tank and a Caesar self-propelled howitzer.
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Ukrainian servicemen from four different artillery crews named Lancets as one of the main threats they faced on the battlefield in conversations with Reuters.
Several soldiers said the frequency of its use had increased in recent months.
"Earlier, in spring, they were not using Lancets as often as they are now," 35-year-old artillery gunner Bohdan, who gave his call sign as Doc, told Reuters near Avdiivka on the Donetsk region frontlines.
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Yuriy Sak, an adviser to Ukraine's defence minister, acknowledged that Russia's increasing use of Lancets created difficulties.
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However, despite being less powerful than an artillery shell or most rockets, the Lancet appears to be able to inflict significant damage.
Lancet: The Russian Kamikaze Drone Blunting Ukraine's Counteroffensive. Russias ZALA Lancet drones have emerged as one of the biggest dangers faced by Ukrainian forces amid Kyivs ongoing counteroffensive, and frontline troops say use of the drones has ramped up in recent months.Inside the Russian effort to build 6,000 attack drones with Irans help
Leaked documents show that Moscow is progressing toward its goal of mass-producing UAVs it could use to pummel Ukrainian cities
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This was Russias billion-dollar weapons deal with Iran coming to life in November, 500 miles east of Moscow in the Tatarstan region. Its aim is to domestically build 6,000 drones by summer 2025
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Altogether, the documents indicate that, despite delays and a production process that is deeply reliant on foreign-produced electronic components, Moscow has made steady progress toward its goal of manufacturing a variant of the Iranian Shahed-136, an attack drone capable of traveling more than 1,000 miles.
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The engineers also are exploring improvements to the drone itself, including making it capable of swarm attacks in which the UAVs autonomously coordinate a strike on a target.
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Even so, David Albright, a former U.N. weapons inspector who helped lead the research team that studied the documents, said: Alabuga looks to be seeking a drone developmental capability that exceeds Irans.
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Russia has a credible way of building over the next year or so a capability to go from periodically launching tens of imported Shahed-136 kamikaze drones against Ukrainian targets to more regularly attacking with hundreds of them, Albright told The Post.
This is to show some indication of scale of drones on the RU side and their effects, and it's from a western source, so safe to say that you should expect them to downplay RU capabilities. I'd venture a guess that one of the prime targets for RU would be to completely knock out UA power grid this winter which they failed to fully achieve last winter. For that they need to save up a lot of drones/missiles, the fact that they're still using dozens of drones/missiles now (instead of saving for the winter) shows that they feel comfortable in their capabilities to achieve needed scale before the winter. Naturally, UA needs to do everything to force RU to use up as much of their stock now instead of piling them up for the winter.
Edit: As far as "peace plan", you're not a kid who can just claim something doesn't work for him and that's it, there's no free lunch and there's cost to everything. Do you think anyone asked Cuba whether US blockade works for it? The two possible outcomes is either miracle comes and UA is somehow able to push to the sea of Azov thus having a stronger position before eventual negotiations (looking more and more unlikely), or our overlords said that the outcome is binary so we either suicide everyone or return 1991 borders.
