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    Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3316467 times)
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    September 01, 2014, 06:42:45 PM
     #321

    I have been wondering, if XMR's emission rate is around 21,024 (14.6 per minute X 60 X 24hours) and the daily volume on Poloniex is often 200-300 BTC, then why isn't the price moving more upwards? We have pretty huge volume, consistently.

    To "buy" 21,024 XMR  at the current price of .0044 BTC per would be around 92.5 BTC a day.
    I realize it requires more BTC as the price goes up to buy the same amount so we can't really say an average price exists. But what is causing this?
    Is it just trading? Can whales be moving coins between one another to add the apparence of volume? (If they wanted to move the price higher they could do a better job.)
    Is there a large holder who is continually dumping?

    Ideas?

    IAS

    Let's compare it:

    XMR
    30d volume = 5,800 BTC
    650,000 XMR mined, 30d SMA 0.0037, 2,405 BTC equivalent mined
    ratio volume to supply: 2.4


    BTC volume is more problematic. Arbitrage links between exchanges are well established, so in principle, all volume (USD, CNY, EUR) counts, but I am not willing to count CNY volume 1:1. There are smarter ways to discount some of the zero-fee volume, but for simplicity sake I'll just say that we probably can agree that Chinese "real" (i.e. human) volume is probably not much lower than USD volume, so I will just double USD volume for the sake of this calculation and be done with it.

    BTC
    30d volume 840,000 BTC (in USD), x 2
    108,000 BTC mined
    ratio volume to supply: 15.6

    So, by volume alone: no, I don't think we're undervalued.

    Thanks, as well to othe.

    It will be interesting to see what happens when the buying overcomes the selling.
    I understand the emission curve over the next 4 years or so will probably aid in
    A nice distribution, a very fair one, relatively speaking.

    BTC = Black Swan.
    BTC = Antifragile - "Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Robust is not the opposite of fragile.
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