Getting into breakout territory, although there's some decent sized walls to break past 0.004...

Nothing that Rpietila can't take care of though  



edit: wall gone

Probability is not based on point of view. Some things are improbable, so we can't go down the road of calling the improbable probable.

Probability is a term used when there is evidence from normally reliable sources to suggest X will occur. In fact, probability is all we really have. Tomorrow, the sun will probably rise.

Don't lump fantasy together with probability.

If the community started a fund, would it be possible to hire temporary developers to expedite development of the GUI?

Probabilities are subjective, because different actors have different priors.  This is why we seek out experts, who have highly informative priors.  Purely frequentist statisticians cannot understand this, but Bayesian reasoning is unreasonably effective, so any pragmatic practitioner will inevitably stray from the frequentist fold.  Estimating distributions for complex real-world events is a challenging but rewarding task, and Bayes' rule is a primary tool.  

There are some general observations about the interactions of complex systems which have become esteemed as laws of nature.  These general principles hold in a wide array of important and useful contexts.  When their preconditions are met, some of them are very nearly tautologically certain.  Among these is the principle of the survival of the fittest.

I find it difficult to imagine how crypto which protects the privacy of the user can fail to out-compete crypto which exposes the user to any and every bad actor who desires to take advantage of their naive publication of their most intimate financial details.  The funds of the former group are conserved, while the funds of the latter group are dissipated due to losses by extortion, theft, and fraud.  Consequently the dominant pool of wealth is a foregone conclusion.

I had my first impression about Bitcoin in 2009, about 15 seconds reading of a link I passed by. "Interesting idea, but something technical = does not apply to me".

In late 2010, Bitcoin was a general topic of intense tabletalk in our investment community. Some people bought in, the majority felt that silver still had plenty of upside left (it did, until mid-2011).

I skipped because of the illiquidity. I have always been presented with lots of investment ideas by my friends and I had learned to raise the minimum to $15k, to be able to manage the "portfolio of strange money-making schemes" properly. Bitcoin market would have risen tens of % if I invested $15k to scoop up BTC60k or so.

In January 2011, we held an hour-long public debate from the topic: "Silver and Bitcoin - which one is the basis for the monetary system of the future". As the founder of Silverbank, I was advocating silver. I won by popular vote (lol).

I made the decision to invest in Bitcoin sometime in the spring. But the price was "too high" (=$1, up 300% in just a few months). Wanted to wait until it calmed down. It didn't, instead went to $32. I was following the rise keenly, although with no holdings. When it tipped over, I strongly advocated people to sell at $25, either half or full holdings, since it would come down a lot and they could buy back cheaper.

They in turn asked me to buy back at $10. I said that in my understanding, it would go all the way to $5 before resuming uptrend. When that was reached months later, I was ready to buy.

**

What makes Monero like Bitcoin in 2010, are the following things:

- something truly new
- very much talk, discussion and debate in the circles that are in the forefront of technical and economic developments
- totally outside the mainstream thinking and adoption, but holds clear promise to go there
- ridiculously small market cap ($5M)
- rich people cannot get in despite interest, due to illiquidity
- difficult to buy (only BTC at present)
- difficult to use (then most hold BTC at Gox, similarly now)
- fanatical community doing what it takes to make it big
- sense of belonging to the community

The majority of people are not sensitive to energies, but the energy of Monero now is same as Bitcoin then. Currently Bitcoin's energy is foul, it has been so much raped by ruthless regulators, stolen by exchange owners and governments, is steered by a foundation that we don't know if it is trying to represent Bitcoin's best interests or not (with western governments, the good thing is we already know the answer and the truth makes us free).

We don't lack the resources (as in highly skilled developers), we lack funds to allow them and us to spend more time on this.

How much is needed for this? Maybe if this was made public it would speed up the donations.

Got to give it to XMR supporters for being persistence and patient. If they can hold the attitude for a few years and keep working on adding features, may be it will reach 2nd spot in a few years.

I'm curious, if you wanted to acquire Monero, considering what the order book looks like, how would you go about doing it?
It seems to me that the relative illiquidity is causing buyers, from what I notice, to spike prices from buying chunks at a time.
As I just mentioned in the Monero Economics thread, I noticed a large 52BTC (or so) buy go through for close to 13,000 Monero. That jacked
the price from .0038 to .0041 and now it is settled at .00388. I'm sure at these prices, in the end, it won't matter much, but I wonder
is this the best way to acquire XMR in relative bulk?

I would try fairly large buy walls at 3% or so below current prices. Has anything similar been happening?
At least I would just have a bot constantly picking up coins in a range, has this happened from your your point of view?
Just trying to learn here.

Its about sharing

Thanks. That is very interesting.
I would understand if you don't want to answer this next question - But, have you seen the above transpire? (Might take more than an eye, perhaps some analysis tools of course.)
From my simplistic perspective, it certainly looks like there is a party that is accumulating but I wonder if others have been paying attention to what you posted, and more???
The volume alone is screaming out.

IAS