Spot on, I think.

Barring a real outlier event, this is probably the penultimate wave before the true recognition.

On that basis, expect a decline to gradually build momentum until it erases 80% on average. The winners will be down 60%, the losers will be down 95% or more. Timescale between 1 and 3 years before the final wave up starts. All based on conjecture and previous fractal patterns.

That is the usual way, yes. When BTC was completely dominant, it was clear as daylight, in the previous 3 waves. It may still happen as you say.

However, in this wave , the whole thing has been complicated by so many significant competing Cryptos, and a greater maturity in the trading markets. Possibly the top will be a long messy one, rather closer to the stock market 'roll-overs'. For sure, re-rating of different projects is going to be the big profit play this time.

Honestly I absolutely agree with you that this will happen... only we're really not there yet, IMHO.

My example of people "finally coming around" is only a couple out of literally DOZENS that I know, who *could* come around and who still have not.  NOT by a LONG SHOT have "most people" even considered "coming around" yet... LOL

YES, When the proverbial cab-driver and shoeshine-boy are giving out crypto-coin tips, then YEAH of course that's the bearish sign of peak-bubble-top.

But I sincerely believe we are still far, far away from that time.

Let me postulate here, gentlemen, that BOTH sides of this debate are probably right?

Perhaps we'll see an epic hockey-stick run-up of bitcoin even a further 10X from today's $5,000-ish price, to maybe a "crazy mind-boggling unbelievable impossible" $50,000-per-฿ era... and THEN you'll be hearing crypto-tips from the cabdriver, LOL, and THEN the expected and long-overdue 50% to 80% crash back DOWN to "only" $10,000-ish per coin will happen.

Lives will be ruined, crypto will be "dead", longtime naysayers will smugly declare they "told us so", etc etc etc.

And a long bear market over several years (like we endured after 2013 with the price slowly bleeding out from $1,000 to $800 to $400 to $200... before it *finally* started to come back up, to $600-ish just ONE YEAR AGO (!!!) from whence it's run today to almost $5K) will start again, "down" even more from $10K to maybe $5K-ish...

And THEN the dawn will break and things will reverse *again* and we'll regain $10K then soon enough $50K... and then it'll be off to the races once again in a cycle that'll run from $50,000 to the $100K's and maybe at nearly full global adoption some day, peak $1-Million per coin (when a single satoshi will be... a penny).

Maybe it'll happen this way, or maybe not.  Maybe we're all RIGHT and there'll be an 80% crash in the future but maybe this current bull-run ain't over yet.

Or (most likely) HoneyBadger will surprise us all and do something totally different from all of these speculations, LOL

I'm not sure that this is the right interpretation. I was one of the people who inquired one of my friends "Hey what's the deal really with that bitcoin crypto currency stuff you were telling me about last year?" in 2013. But he didn't convince me to get involved, and when it crashed it confirmed my doubts. So I was very late.

Back then I also saw that interest around me but just like me, almost none of the people I knew got involved.

Now, things have changed, I know quite a few people (for example a befriended actor, a young female architect, another guy who's always between jobs) who neither have a lot of money nor have ever invested before but they are putting a little into crypto. But it's still only a small percentage of the people I know.

And I know all kinds people with lots of money who have not (yet) invested in crypto. I just met a very wealthy couple from Los Angeles and they haven't even heard of Bitcoin. (I couldn't believe it). This is, of course, unusual but I think crypto is still far away from the masses.

So, "who is left"? I would say it's the 99%. Crypto is not just interesting to the classic wealthy investor types but to all kinds of people from all walks of life. And it's just starting.

But with all the nonsense coins and ICOs there is also a lot of potential for market correction. If you look at the dotcom bubble, most companies went broke but the few that emerged have grown much larger than before the bubble popped.

It will be interesting to see if it will be the ONE cryptocurrency to emerge or if the future will have a multitude of successful cryptocurrencies.

A strong correction would be nice, because i would like to invest more but I'm not counting on it to happen before a substantial rise and then it will be questionable if we will even see the current levels again.

Edit: I just read your last comment, I guess you're right just not sure we will see a correction at this level. Who knows...

Edit2: Another thing, people always quote the burst of dotcom bubble as to why crypto has to burst but there was only one dotcom crash so far (17 years ago) and we already had one big Bitcoin crash, so perhaps that was the one.

I'm not saying there won't be a crash, I'm just not sure that it's as inevitable as some make it out to be.

To clarify I'm not pointing to a bearish sentiment (though one could point not only to the China news but to the increased regulatory pressure from the SEC in the US, Canada, Singapore, and others as potentially bearish) as much as to increased downside risk and decreased short term upside.

Personally I am acting on this belief by reducing my risk profile in crypto positions to those I'm more comfortable holding through a possible correction or even bear market, but that doesn't mean selling all or going short.

Monero in particular I haven't yet sold any at all (in a long time), but I'm considering lightening up on that too here. >100 USD/XMR and >1 billion USD cap is great, but again, short- to mid-term, relatively reduced upside and increased risk.

If Monero was a lady in reality, actually then your description of a proper lady would have attracted a lot but we have a slight problem here and that is it is a crypto currency and we don't have time to watch her taking rest before putting on a great show. I hope your lady gets this in her head soon before being replaced.

Do you have any timeline when we reach $500K?
Or else John McAfee will eat his ... on national tv. I don't want to see that. 
https://twitter.com/officialmcafee/status/887024683379544065?lang=en

Certainly impossible before next Tuesday at 7:00pm, but definitely should happen sometime before Tuesday, September 7th... 2117 



Well, presumably your TV has an OFF button? Or you're Alex? 

I said long ago I will sell 10% when reach $50 and then 10% more when reach $100.  I did not do nothing ofcourse. Just buy some more. At least none for over $100. Not yet.

If we get 2014 again, i doubt I will do anything.It will just be a depressing 2018.  I will survive that way much easier then if sold my precious Monero and suddenly would be on sale for 5 times higher price and could buy back 5 times less.