no they can not guarantee to pay back the money, but if liquidity is there it should work out. i normally do not lend out money too, but since i planned to buy the coins back anyway + the rate was 2% i could not resist.
but it did not work out, next time i wont hesitate.
i do think the over all short position is still there, yesterday we just saw the bot having an issue. if he continues on margin we will see soon enough i guess
and now there are so many offers below 1%, this is really not what i wanted but yeah, market will solve it

poloniex's policy on not publishing the data is criminal.
it gives a huge atvantage not only to them, but to the rich ones, since they can afford to lend out money (and know how much there is to squeeze) + manipulate the market at the same time. this is a real issue. i have mentioned this many times to polo, but without any success. they promised to implement it a very long time ago.
regarding eth: remember, they are located in switzerland, this sure plays a role too (developer ~140-220k p.a. office ~160-260 per m2 p.a, prices in CHF) btw. i agree, they spent it unwise, it seems like that at least