my fav meme

Keep dreaming.

Yes it does. See: Telegraph, Telephone, Radio, TV, Automobiles, Computers, Internet, Video Games. All of these things started out with a tiny communities that kept on growing.

Was it ridiculous to predict a catastrophic price collapse during any of the previous run ups?

That very prediction was made, publicly/vocally or privately/silently, by I and many others, and largely based simply on the fact that it has happened before.

Taking heed of that prediction curtailed my losses, as taking heed of this prediction will prevent me missing an opportunity.

I know I don't know what I'm doing, I make decisions based on the fact that the outcome of any future event is unknowable, I position myself to capitalise on the unexpected. If it doesn't happen?... it was not expected to anyway.

Newbie to this forum but not to bitcoin and really appreciate Mr Betts thread
and his disclaimers that this is a model and not a prediction. I believe
in the S curve model as it seems to have decent history especially in
 new technology. I am what some call a hoarder
I know it is a popular view is that hoarding is bad for bitcoin. Of course if the glass
is half full we call it saving, not hoarding. And if we are adherents' to
Gresham's law, spending fiat before bitcoin is logical. I like Mr Betts have
no doubt if it gets into the S curve I will sell some coins for fiat but only
a few, I hope, and only to buy something or pay the rent. I know from
my experience with APPLE how hard it is to hold on and not sell while an asset is appreciating
just as it is hard to sell when an asset is depreciating.
Hope all the members are having as much fun and entertainment with
the BTC proposition as I am. If we hoarders are right we get a great
ride and if not still have gas in the car

How many of you are familiar with the writings of Another and Friend of Another and their thinking on freegold? After reading this http://fofoa.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/global-stagnation.html FOFOA post about the transition to a post dollar hegemony world, I think sgbett might just be on to something, it is clear that the world is transitioning away from the dollar as the reserve currency into free floating exchange in which gold goes to a higher price to recapitalise debtor nations and to compensate saver nations e.g china with $4t in treasuries. We will most likely see a run to 'real' assets and out of paper during a period of hyperinflation (20% inflation plus). Stashing a few coins and some gold now might just make you look like a financial genius in a few years!

Heya mister OP,

Coming from an engineering background this graph looks quite similar to the operation of a PID controller. As value is added to bitcoin from other sources (modelled as a step input, aka a horizontal line of some price equivalent on your graph), the price overshoots, undershoots, then eventually attenuates (stabilizes) around that value. Of course as bitcoin gains legitimacy greater and greater step inputs will be applied in the system, indeed resulting in a kind of huge black swan event when huge players of capital start to invest.

What this model fails to capture is that after there is no more major capital to invest (aka bitcoin has gone mainstream, TO THE MOON, etc.) the system will again attenuate, but much more quickly and with less variance because there is no (emotional and/or fiat-centric attitude) justification for the price to undershoot by so much.

Add a linear component after this date of stabilization to reflect the deflationary nature of the currency and you will have what I think is a pretty accurate model of how things will go down!

I'm excited to see if my theory turns out to be right.

Wow, OP is dumb. Bet he is crying in corner from all the shame right now.

It's true the trolls run in packs 

I'll take "financial ruin" over "being wrong on the internet" for $100 please bob...~

You get called trolls because you can't/don't read and you you post content purely based around trying self aggrandise. Why would I be ashamed of putting forward a generalised hypothesis about how price discovery might work? I said in the OP that its not about the values its about the concept, but you consistently glom onto the figures like they are some cast iron guaranteed get rich quick trading scheme.  Says more about you then you even realise.

Apologise? cry in the corner? Sounds like you guys are just parroting things that your mums say to you when you've been naughty boys.

I aint even mad. kids will be kids

Tell me, what is the bitcoin price going to do over the next 10-20 years? You don't know, I don't know, that's why we are in here speculating. What if I'm right - you ready? Because I sure as hell am. I'm also totally ready for it going to zero. I can tell you are excited, it sounds like your life will be enriched by 'being right OTI'. More power to you.

So, as I have explained countless times to anyone that cares to grok it, it doesn't matter who is right or wrong. It matters that you understand the potential outcomes and how you best position yourself.

Lost you yet? I should be so lucky....