Sounds legit, but only the top miners really matter. What do the numbers look like for the most efficient hardware?

That's awesome. Probably can't go much lower then. At least not on mined coins alone.

Sure yea, but now its worth 370$ and decreasing ;]

Yeah, just hold and wait for single digit prices. Then panic sell. 

The mining insanity has screwed things up, and it's going to take a while for it to sort itself out.

Lots of the miners running right now should have never been made. If they weren't funded by preorders, the people making them would have run out of money an stopped making them because they wouldn't be able to sell them. They took the preorders, so they were able to sell miners that will never generate a profit.

people bought the preorders, so when they receive their miner that should never have been made, they are going to plug it in to try and get some sort of return on their investment. The money they spent on the miner is gone, it makes sense for them to mine until they can't pay for the electricity so they can make the best out of the crappy situation they are in. This makes the difficulty way higher than it should be.

The drop in price should get these people to unplug their machines and make the difficulty drop, but then we have the next disaster, cloud mining. The people running these operations got people to pay them for and to run the miners that should have never been made. it will take a bigger price drop for a cloud mining operation to shutdown their rigs than it would be for a random guy with a miner, because they are subsidized by other geniuses, so again, the difficulty will not drop down as fast as it should.

I'd like to invite any non-troll, serious chartographers to put some coin behind your predictions - will make your prediction hold that much more weight showing you actually believe in it instead of just saying so.

Edit: almost forgot to link: https://www.betmoose.com/bets or you can PM for a private contract set up.

Long odds, but payout on the NO is too little (3.3%) to be interested in taking the opposite side.
Basically, you just donated ~5BTC to that website.

My reasoning: ~1200 in 2013 was similarly extended to ~$32 in 2011. In 2011 the long term bear market ensued, which at some point resulted in the negative hashing speed adjustment. The bear market of Nov 2013-today has yet to result in negative hashing speed adjustment. Once it does, and it will, in my opinion, it would still be 2-4 mo before the new bull market begins. In 2011 hashing rate REDUCED more than twofold during ~95% decline. At what levels bear market will exhaust itself? if we adjust as much as in 2011, we are looking at something like $75-85. These numbers look a bit extreme, so we might adjust to a previous top of ~$266 instead.

I'll give to the OP 1 whole BTC if price will be even $56,000 in the next 14 months. Just remind me because I'll be on a yacht busy with booze and women.

I can't tell if this is serious, or just mocking all the uber-bulls on here. 

Bitcoin is still a nerd toy. A chunk of institutional "investing" could fuel a 100x price bubble. If it ever becomes "mainstream", your figures suddenly look completely reasonable. This is completely realistic, considering the orders of magnitude to date.  But there is an alternate future where bitcoin survives (doesn't die), the network emaciates, and it never catches on institutionally or as a currency - but is still completely useful.