...If this theory is true, the next leg up will be greater in both duration and magnitude than any we have seen before...  And when it's done it might just carry us right over the vertical part of the adoption curve.  
  
An unexpectedly long and severe bull movement might last three to four years and take us to some pretty extreme prices.  I've written more about it here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3ne7yr/the_next_wave_of_cryptospeculation_is_coming_and/  
  
Sgbett, any thoughts?  Has anyone tried to find a pattern in the timing of expansions vs. retraction before?  Would you agree the next bull run might take several years to complete, which might be "compressed" by your particular chart?  ...
  

I wildly underestimated one of the variables (as humans are wont to do) - time. Think I am bang on the money about the price though, I think $560k is the big one before it levels out around the 300k mark. the 'ristoprice' any move to a million after that would have to be decades long so not in my lifetime.

As you've said though, i think its a multi year move, such that the noise during it will seem like huge price moves whilst its happening but with hindsight it will all become clear.

Look at November '13:

It starts out in the 200's and by the end of the month we'd hit $1,200 - about 4 weeks say. Prior to that several months spent

so imagine we spend the next year or two slowly working back up to 1000

On the 9th Nov '13, the opening price was around 350 after several days of steady climbing, that day it hit $400. The following morning a plunge back down to $300 which was tested a couple times. At this point without a crystal ball it was anyone's guess what was going to happen. We were already well over the previous all time high. Calls of a bubble were already starting, it has to crash any time!

Instead it carried on marching up relentlessly for the following week.

On the 18th it broke $600, and went on to touch nearly $900 going into the 19th.

A blow off top sure sure, and it was... back under $500 in 36 hours. It wouldn't go lower though, and another 10 days straight gains before finally running out of steam at the end of november at over $1200.

Now, Imagine a 4 year run up from $1000 to $560k and imagine the totally unlikely fractal based scenario of the same patterns playing out over that timescale.

The first year will be a steady climb, until around february of the second year where we will be at around $85k. Still holding? Good because by the end of feb its shot up to $101k and you are pretty happy right now!

The trick now is not to panic as by mid march you'll have seen the price drop right back down to $55k. Panic sold yet? I hope not, because over the next 12 are going to see a climb to $225k - if you have the balls to ride that train.

So we are mid march year 3 now, and over the next 3 weeks growth will suddenly accelerate, $393k in the fist quarter of april. You are smart, you'd sell here right. That would be a wise move because 60 days later the price has collapsed to $169k. You made bank though. Bitcoin is going nowhere now and you are sitting pretty. For the next year though you watch in dismay, as you set out of another 230% price rise. Bitcoin $560k, end of year 4.

Those huge swings over weeks and months will all but guarantee redistribution. Given the behaviour of people during the past 2 run ups, something of that magnitude, over that length of time will be absolutely unbearable.

The noise alone will shake people daily.

Thats what my OP is about. Its a note to self.

How do you respond to Burt W's objections regarding the implausibility that so large a fraction of the world's electricity supply would be diverted to mining? Bitcoin to the moon means electricity price to the moon.

efficiency of mining keeps increasing, however, difficulty is increasing as well.

In March 2014 antminer S1 was producing 0.08BTC/day while hashing at 178GH/s
In October 2015 antminer S7 is producing 0.04BTC/day while hashing at 4860Gh/s
So, in mere 19 mo, hashing speed of the consumer machine increased ~27-fold.
Efficiency per watt went from 2 to 0.25-an eightfold increase in efficiency.
However, difficulty increased ~54-fold, making the best (so far) machine to produce just half of what it's predecessor did 19 mo ago.

We cannot/do not want to get to $500,000 per BTC any time soon.  Here is the math behind it:

https://bt.irlbtc.com/view/694401.0

If BTC were to go to $500,000 in this era it would cause a catastrophic mining bubble:

   $500,000 x 25 = $12,500,000 per block = $75,000,000 per hour

   $75 million per hour would drive the mining to attempt to use 675 GW.  This is about 30% of all the power generated on the planet.

So, in order to keep our power consumption under about 2% of world wide power production, we cannot/do not want the price to get to $500,000 before era 6, which is about 2033 or so.

Using my previously derived formula for the power consumption:

P = (6(50/2^e) + f)(x)(1 - g)/c [kW]

where:

x = exchange rate [USD/BTC]
e = era [0..32] (we are currently in era 1)
f = average fees per hour [BTC/hour]
c = cost of energy [USD/kWh]
g = average gross profit margin [unitless ratio]

we can look at the power consumption in each era assuming a price of $500,000 per BTC.

In order to make it simple I will make the following assumptions:

x = $500,000 per BTC
f = fees per hour will keep the coinbase above 6 BTC/hour (1 BTC/block) in all eras
c = $0.10 per kWh
g = 0.1 miner gross profit margin

This is the Burt W post I was thinking of: https://bt.irlbtc.com/view/720179.msg8135635#msg8135635

 
  
The scary part is that we are quoting these fantasy prices in today's non-hyperinflated dollars.  Imagine the situation during the "great changeover" when hyper-inflation hits and people are worried about eating tomorrow.  They then realize that their bitcoins are worth over $1 million dollars each ($50k in today's un-hyper-inflated money).  Even though $50k isn't that much today, most will see the $1 million and think "Holy shit!  I'm a millionaire!  Who cares if some foreign governments are dumping US Dollars!  I'll have millions of them!"  
  
Perhaps this is the catalyst that drives the price of bitcoin back down even as bitcoin (and other top cryptos) and the global reserve currencies begin a titanic war where no one is sure what will happen ultimately.  Initially when hyper-inflation hits and there is an exodus into the rapidly exploding cryptocurrency universe while major banks and governments begin frantically discussing legislation to confiscate/control crypto so that the fortunes of the existing billionaires don't go up in smoke.  This causes the first "crash" as responsible holders sell their imaginary internet tokens for real US Dollars and other fiat that are clearly being 'saved' by the government.  
  
Then, once the price has dropped sufficiently that one of the big billionaires can stand it no longer (money in the middle of the mob) he begins both buying heavily and using his connections to stop all the aforementioned legislation/regulation.  The next major explosion in price is set off as the billionaires realize they are betraying each other and they all rush to not be the last person standing with worthless fiat.  
  
Now hyperinflation *really* hits hard and panic sets in the population.  Entire retirement accounts are now worthless and you better fucking believe the people that have responsibly saved all their lives will be crying bloody-murder (to which the money-controlled media will say, 'we can't help it!  It's this evil crypto!).  Eventually though the people will realize who really betrayed them and cost them everything (as they always do): the bourgeoisie.  
  
It won't be pretty.  
  
During the final legs up, bitcoin will be worth an absurd amount of dollars or Euros (not a paltry $1 million or $500k - that barely buys a plane ticket 'these days').  We are talking an era of $1 million dollar and euro bills because the fiat scam will have finally collapsed into its last legs: rampant money printing.  Someone would have to be a fool to trade their hard crypto for worthless paper at that point because the world will realize that it's not even paper - it's imaginary numbers a banker they trusted typed into a machine and it magically created that money out of thin air.  
  
Once everyone realizes that all money is imaginary numbers on a computer and they have been sold up a creek by the banks and powers they trusted, we will emerge into a new world.  If you are an early holder now, prepare to be a massive philanthropist later on, unless you plan on standing by and watching millions of elderly sleep on the street and die of hunger.  You will control all the wealth in the world, and it will be up to you to lead appropriately.  
  
Plan on protecting yourself (with well paid security) and being a publicly beloved persona because you are so generous... or plan on hiding in the shadows for the rest of your life.  There are probably a disturbing number of humans who would kill/torture someone for the equivalent of a trillion of today's dollars.  The alternative is that you become one of the new beneficiaries that "bails out" the existing governments and banks and new fiat is issued backed by crypto-assets: this is probably preferable because it maintains a semblance of order.  Taking this a little further, I would also theorize that this would be a good time to introduce "universal salary" to all humans.  
  
It's going to be a horrific and marvelous ride... and we are going to be witness to the greatest financial disaster that humanity has ever seen.  And not just witness - we are going to participate.  
  
Better get your shit together, dear reader.  Tick tock.

When I was a teen people used to ask me what I wanted to be when I grew up and I would say a "philanthropist!"  I was half-joking, knowing it takes a sizable fortune to be one, but now that I am older and a bit wiser it is a bit daunting even thinking about having that kind of responsibility.  We dream of what will happen.  In some ways I almost wish it doesn't because so many people would suffer in our world if there is a collapse of such magnitude.  The major "players" in the financial world will shift, some of us will be the guardians of wealth.  We will be hated for that.  Some might be tracked down and even killed or at best be forced to give some coins away.  Security will become important.  Ahh.  I worry too much.  I will trust God in it all.  I think the thing that troubles me the most right now though is that 99.9% of the world have no fears and have ultimate trust in the monetary system we currently have.  They do not think a collapse is even possible.  Those with eyes to see understand we are not immune to that and we see that we are getting closer than ever before.