Our bonus, however unlikely, has a high +EV for depositors (and non-depositors).
That's not true.
Let's use the above example. I deposit 1
BTC. I get 3.01
BTC as a bonus. I now have 4.01
BTC to gamble with. Let's, for the moment, completely ignore that I can only ever cash out a max of 4.01
BTC, which completely negates any positive variance I may experience (that is to say, if I get lucky I won't get the money...if I get unlucky I'll still lose money). For me to be able to withdraw I'll need to gamble the 4.01
BTC 388x. So I need to wager 1555.88
BTC.
In order for this offer to be +ev, I'd need to have 1.01
BTC in my account after I finish the rollover. For that to be true, your games would have to only have a .2% hold.
Do your games have 99.8% or higher payback? Because if not, this deal is NOT +ev for depositors.