(note: This is going to be a long one. And politically charged, and all that. This is why I said that Bob and I needed a beer, but if it's going to be brought up again and again here on the forum then why not: Post the whole thing even though it's totally OT)
First, there is no question that Nuclear war is Bad. And that simulation is probably fairly accurate assuming everything works. It represents a full scale exchange of everything you got. In other words, life as usual in the 80's.
Based on the Russian performance in the Ukraine so far, the breakdowns and issues caused by poor maintenance and what appears to be pretty rampant corruption I'm not too sure that the Russian nuclear arsenal is in very good shape at this time. Maintaining that stuff has cost the US a lot of money over the past 30 years, and I don't see indications that the Russians have taken very good care of their stuff. Their rocket tech still works, but they have had massive infusions of US capital to keep that stuff going (ISS launches, etc).
So here is the dilemma: Now that official Russian policy is to use nukes as threats do you wait for them to fix all this stuff? Do you continue to support a regime that is literally saying "We have nukes and we will use them?" Do you send them money, technology, and assistance so they can focus on fixing their threat and making it more lethal?
I believe That is not a good idea. Thus the sanctions, etc. And in an extreme case that is why you destroy those weapons and ideas NOW instead of waiting till later.
Don't get me wrong: I totally agree: A nuke war would be a mess, and a full scale one would be the end of the world as we know it. That's why it baffles me as to why this dingbat (Putin) would be threatening nukes. You don't cooperate with people like this, you don't appease them, and you certainly don't give them support so they can later cut your throat.
Styx points out this is what happened after WW1 and only lead to an even bigger problem with the rise of nationalism, then Hitler and Nazism.
Hmmm. Maybe this was part of Putin's plan?
I think so. Promoting fake nationalism, racism, etc has seriously weakened the world. Electing "populists" seems to have problems when faced with complex problems.
The left (around the world) constantly claimed Trump was going to get us into WW3, the same left who now clap at every sanction and Russian that gets cancelled.
Showing weakness in the face of aggression is not a good strategy. There have been many well documented cases of Trump showing weakness and caving in to Russian interests, As a quick example, here's some examples from 2018-2020:
- Trump congratulated Putin on his sham election
- Trump balked at sanctions for Skripal poisoning
- Trump praised pro-Russian leaders in Europe
- Trump defended Soviet invasion of Afghanistan
- Trump asked allies to let Russia back in the G7
- Trumps Syria withdrawal gave Putin a boost
- Trump spread Russian myths about Ukraine
- Trump personally froze $391 million in US military and security assistance for Ukraine in mid-2019.
- Trump slow-walked sales of anti-tank missiles to Ukraine because of concerns it would upset Russia
- Trump smeared US ambassador to Ukraine (Marie Yovanovitch)
- Trump considered visiting Putin on Russian soil
- Trump invited Russia to 2020 G7 summit
- Trump directed CIA to share intel with Russia
- Trump ignored warnings of Russian bounties
- Trump ordered US troops out of Germany
(cite:
https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/17/politics/trump-soft-on-russia/index.html)
Even Bombing Bolton is coming out and saying that Trump's plan after 2020 was to withdraw from NATO. And I'd say that Bolton is *not* a left wing stooge based on his record. Have to say it, the right wing in the US seems to have been compromised and that's not good...
The previous strategy of praising, supporting, and appeasing Russia results in the situation we have now. They did not work. Thus the sanctions.
Note: This is not "cancel culture", it's refusing to sell the knife to the person who has said they will cut your throat.
Ok, rant off. :-)
