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I'm looking forward to some serious green candles, but also have moments of doubt like ImThour when it comes to BTC price. I've been through a lot of shit the past decade but the shining star during this time has been Bitcoin, there is no doubt in my mind this is as important as the internet when it comes to inventions.
The sideways BTC action slightly above the low mark (~33k USD) as of late brings out the worst in people here it seems, including me, and stupid wars doesn't help (yes, I'm a peace lover).
I have a few friendly suggestions, no one has to agree (feel free to ignore), but I think it might benefit all of us in WO.
Unless Bitcoin related (that's the exception)...
1) ...don't post war related stuff.
2) ...leave political remarks out of the discussion.
I'm guilty of breaking these rules myself, but feel eager to improve.
I was struggling about whether I should merit your post because there are a few points that I disagree with .. even though the overall intentions don't really seem bad.....
Surely, world events could really end up causing bitcoin to tank, yet assigning high probabilities to that - like ImThour seems to be doing.. or even showing a downward trajectory that has $20k as it's highpoint.. and asserting that it is inevitable for bitcoin to touch such line, just seems bonkers as fuck... .and sure, I don't mind accounting for outlandish (and outrageous) scenarios that could happen because we have seen those things happen in bitcoin from time to time - nonetheless, we have to attempt to be somewhat realistic in our assignment of probabilities, so in that regard, we should not be treating 1% or 5% scenarios as if they were either highly likely or even if they have 50% odds.. because the reality of the matter is that they remain 1% or 5% scenarios and in our own mental and financial preparations we should be attempting to get as close as we can to approximating that rather than going into lala landia.....
Of course, we do not need to agree about how high of probabilities to assign, and surely you may well consider my assignment of 1% to 5% to be way the fuck too low, and you are thinking 20%-ish.. but you want to be safe and prepare as if it were 30%.. and sure, that is on you.. to prepare (psychologically/financially) in those kinds of ways, if you want to do that, but you better realize that many of us are going to consider you a bit looney if you
(I am not necessarily referring to you specifically, modrobert) are coming into this thread and spouting certainties regarding such scenarios that even you could not reasonably to be even close to certain.. even if you have assigned way higher odds than others have assigned.
When seeing that "$20k doomsday graph" by ImThour I got a flashback from when price dropped to just over $9 (yes, no 'k'), and some people speculated that the rate would fall back to resistance at $2, this was fueled by the constant "Bitcoin is a ponzi" (have fun with your bubble) bullshit posted in this forum at the time. I just felt humble about the fact that no matter when you step into Bitcoin it will feel like a bad decision, as being late to the party. You (JayJuanGee) plan your moves and make seemingly smart decisions based on your own framework of rules, despite doing this for a long time I still do a lot of risky moves and lose money often because I suck at planning. I accumulate BTC when possible, trade when I need, and my approach is often to learn about the situation, the more info the better, to develop a "gut feeling" for how things will move roughly, and then I act on that and previous experience, have a few simple tactics, but nothing sophisticated.
