That's a bettable proposition for sure.

I bet the odds are less than 50% that you are correct... In other words, I bet the odds are greater than 50% that we reach an ATH before the 2024 halvening.

Now it is a matter of whether you are going to take the other side of the bet.. seems like a 1:1 bet, especially the way you framed it, and I would be glad to take your money.. I have no problem with the amount being small or symbolic.

Even Biodom seems to be more bullish than you, and it seems that he was not really willing to bet past this calendar year .. but he would not actually commit to a bet regarding that matter.


Some day, you are going to have 20x  more bitcoin than you actually need.

 



I gather (or would it be speculate) that such rocketing of BTC's price past $60k (and even $69k) has decent chances of happening (greater than 50%) either this calendar year or soon thereafter.. and will not take as long as 2 years, as he (LFC) seems to be postulating.

the evening wall report

micro to macro...cascades chase, follow and reinforce wave fronts
seem to be observing that here...from 4 hour to daily to weekly
immense amount of 'energy' as i like to think of it, generated from the accumulation period into the compression period looking for the path of least resistance
which i believe is up at this temporal point

dyor

4h



D

stronghands

I have nothing but respect for this position.  And it makes crazy good sense.

I have cashed in some of my stack at various times over the years.  And the defense I have for it is pretty simple.

- If it goes up? Well that's the problem I WANT right there.  I still have most of it.
- If it goes down? Well hooray me... My Bitcoin secured some luxury for me.
- I don't live forever.  And I can't take it to my grave.
- Making my kids billionaires will ruin both them AND their children.

I *do* think you are possibly wrong about your cycle thesis.  Even though I support your reasoning behind your hedge.  In fact I think it's a damn good hedge (really... that's my point here).  I could have retired multiple times just in what I lost between 2018-2020 on the only alt coin I own.  It's regained ALL that value in the last year... and will again, I think. And it's my smaller position.  I went through the same pain you did.  But that pain did something really weird to me.  It made me realize that I will be about as happy as I am whether or not I have the money. 

All my joy and all my problems will persist whether I can afford ... well whatever.

And I am naturally frugal.  Got it from my dad, I guess.  I have never NEEDED the money.

That said... looks like I have some relatives who may need to be taken care of.  So you better bet your ass I will make sure that can happen.

That's why I see your position as righteous.  You are not continuing to roll the dice like I am.  At least not on the whole stack.  And there is a chance I pay more for that mistake than you do by avoiding it.  After all... I can lose ALL the value of my position.  Or I could die tomorrow.  And like I said... I am not gambling the whole lot either.  It's paid for some stuff...

But who knows?

At this temporal point.. .. hahahahahaha

the next 3 hours and 26 minutes happen to be critical^tm because according to one of our most duly recognized and frequently wrongedly blowing in the wind "analysts" (if that's what he be properly called?), such time duration happens to be within this temporal point.


Go sorcerers that be!!!!!!!!!



 


But why ruin the moods by bringing or mentioning other crap that might have relations with BTC ?

The fact of the matter is that everything in the world is going to have relations with BTC, so why point out specific ones that seem to be mere distractions..

Intended to ruin dee moo?



There's nothing wrong with shaving some profits on the way up, and for sure there can be an insurance rationale behind such shavings - so in fact whether there would have been an "objectively" better way to play it - seems to be somewhat irrelevant because the insurance angle has a bit of intangibility to it... because it is both psychological and financial (but also within the financial angle there is no real easy way to place a price upon the benefit that was gotten from a scenario that may well have ended up not playing out.)...  

Maybe it could be said that so many times, we end up paying more from insurance than any benefit that we get because we never get into any car accidents and our house never burns down.. but we would really be a in an insecure position in the event that we did not carry the insurance on those items.  perhaps?  perhaps?

Edited to add a wee bit:    So, yeah taking out insurance seems to have been what LFC did, which is not unlike what other members do in their managing their BTC holdings.. and each of us may well structure our insurance differently.. and second-judging others some of us might consider one member or another took out too much insurance or not enough or just played the whole insurance angle in ways that defeated the purpose.. by engaging in some kind of trading rather than having a system or even playing BIGGER swings - which would be more in line with the insurance ideas rather than trading ideas......  at the same time, the whole matter could end up playing out in such a way that some members (BTC HODLers) figure out ways to accomplish both.

Our growing knowledge regarding current uncertainties in keeping any value in cash or within assets that seems to have a lot of cash-embeddedness in them, seems to be part of the reason why LFC ONLY cashed out 25% - especially since around 3 years ago.. or maybe it was a bit longer than that?  LFC largely moved off of his earlier position in which he would have ended up cashing out very large portions of his BTC.. more than 80% if I recall correctly... so in considerable senses, LFC has reconsidered his position and even reconsidered the practicality of keeping a decent quantity of value continuing to ride within BTC.

It seems that quite a few of us within this thread have come around to this position in the past 3-5 years... and maybe some of these ideas came after bitcoin seemed to have had decisively won the 2017 block wars.. mostly resolving in the end of 2017 - but still having some lingering (mostly trolling) impacts for another year or two thereafter.

The fact that so many BTC HODLers have decided to keep large portions of their value in BTC has been a pretty damned widespread and ever increasing set of values that seem to have developed more extensively within BTC HODLers who had been paying quite a bit of attention to the bitcoin space in the past 3-8 years...

Not exciting but strange. Anyhow, it was the exact start of this bullrun up to past $44k we are at now. And it has not slowed down.
I never have, while looking at the chart for price had it jump up so quickly like this. And I look at the 3minute (actually forgot to change it to 15minute) while looking at the price difference when making a buy of btc.
It probably was the Do Kwon effect with him doing $125million purchase buys of BTC at all different times of the day.
As he has proposed on his twitter he'll be doing.
But then again you don't care about these sh*tcoins ramblings.