I agree with your probability of 40% (or 45?) that Bitcoin reaches $120k+ in 2022. That sounds good. fairly bullish in my opinion. As there are lots of scenarios in the other 60% (35?) where Bitcoin makes it to somewhere north of 80.
Your response seems to warrant that I attempt to clarify how I arrive at my numbers - and for sure, there is a kind of SOMA involved in terms of changes of events and passage of time can end up justifying that the assignment of values might need to change. In my above explanation, I had provided a link to my December 6 rendition because that was the last time that I actually went through the process of assigning the numbers - and of course, even the passage of time causes changes to the timeline since we already know what happened during the remainder of 2021 and now even know what has happened in the 1st quarter of 2022. So tweaks to the timeline are more obvious, but also there can also be some needs to tweak which values are probable - and how probable that they might be.
Another thing had been that I had been attempting to assign probabilities somewhat based on the topping of this 4-year cycle's peak - while at the same time attempting to account for this cycle NOT following a strict 4-year timeline, but instead extending out.. and maybe at some point, it no longer makes sense to be attempting to be pigeon-holing BTC price movements into that kind of a framework.. because the data is no longer supporting that kind of framing......
In any event, no matter what we call it (extension of the 4-year fractal or a new cycle), we can still attempt to suggest our BTC price moves based on an idea that BTC prices are moving UP rather than correcting (or at least the overall sentiment is UP)..., so then the question becomes when such UPpity might end and how far such UPpity might go.
When we still have three quarters left in the calendar year, then it can feel more comfortable to lock oneself into attempting to predict what might happen during this particular calendar year; however, you may have even noticed in my December 6th post, I had around a couple of percentages of probability that our price peak might happen in 2023, and I had assigned around 26% odds that our price peak might happen in late 2021 or the 1st quarter of 2022 (which we know that did not happen), and for sure I would need to reassess my assignments of probabilities for the 2nd quarter of 2022 and 3rd quarter of 2022 which I had placed peaking in those quarters as 17% and 8.5% respectively.. so in that sense.. all of the assignments of time need to be reassess since 4 months passed without any kind of peaking and then one of the main questions would be whether our right around 4-5 months of correction had negated the UP thesis for this cycle (like in the coming year-ish) or significantly changed when it might happen or how far UP it might go, if it were to happen?
The above is a long way of saying that my overall UP thesis has not really changed, even though some of my assignment of odds need to change, even while I have not comprehensively attempted to plot it out.
So that latest post, I suggest that I still believe that there could be up to 40% odds of $120k being reached in 2022, but I feel like I am being too bullish (or too presumptuous) when I say it, so I am not even comfortable.. and when I say that on December 6, I had already assigned 44.5% odds to $120k to happen in 2022, in that list of probabilities, you have to add up each of my assignment of probabilities that are higher than $120k to arrive at that 44.5% number.
Regarding supra $80k in 2022, even on December 6, I had not specified $80k because I consider $80k to be almost like a non-issue because it seems to be currently in the middle of noman's land, so I had assigned probabilities to peaking sub $62k (at 45%), then probabilities of peaking within $62k to $92k or lower (at 50%) and then probabilities of peaking higher than $92k (at 50%)... so whether you were to consider $80k at the bottom, middle or top of noman's land, I have trouble assigning such high values such as 60% to prices that we have not yet reached....
Fuck.. I remain so much a 50/50 kind of guy and really try NOT to presume to much UPpity.. even though I assign odds to those UPpity prices. and even getting up to supra $1.5million in my December 6th posting of 0.5% - which perhaps still remains in play as an outlier possibility, but currently I am starting to think that 0.5% might even be too bullish for that supra $1.5 million range for this cycle (let's say within a year and a half or so rather than sticking with 2022 calendar year.. because that would surely seem too tight to get from our current $47.7k-ish prices up to seemingly fantasylandia supra $1.5 million).
But I will add a prediction of my own.
*IF* we make it to 120k... a quarter mill within 6 months from that would be a 75% chance.
Of course, both of us are accounting for the premise that once we reach certain price points, then we should be attempting to go through some sort of reassignment of the probabilities of higher scenarios from there... so my earlier assignment of .05% for a $1.5 million peak for this cycle might seem realistic when BTC prices are bouncing between $50k and $69k, but if BTC prices were to reach $250 to $500 million within the coming 6-12months, the odds for supra $1.5 million become quite a lot higher - even for the same cycle.. perhaps even approaching 20%.
Similarly, in 2016 BTC prices were largely between $350 in the beginning of the year and supra $600 towards the end of the year and even though we got into the $1ks early in 2017 and bounced between $2k and $2.7k for much of the middle of 2017, during those times, the reaching of $19,666 would have been a kind of fantasy prediction, and even surpassing $6k or alternatively $10k were also considered lower probability events; however, once the BIG blocker disputes - including both the going through with a hardfork (B-cash in August 1 2017) and the retraction of the segwit2x fork in late October/early November 2017, the BTC price moves that actually started to reach $6k and even $10k caused those higher prices such as $19,666 to have been theoretically more probable, the ended up getting reached.. maybe even that they might have seemed to have had less than 5% odds in 2016 or maybe seeming to have less than 10% odds in early 2017.
Regarding your assignment of 75% odds for $250k in the event that we were to reach $120k in 2022, those kinds of assignment of probabilities go way higher than I am ever willing to proclaim when it comes to short term assessments of BTC price direction, especially if we are referring to further UPpity, and we know that in the short-term so many things can happen to disrupt momentum, even when it is looking good and even though we know that there is a lot of power that momentum has while it is happening... I just hate to be too presumptive about it.. even though there are times that in the short term that we have pretty strong feelings that whatever momentum that we are experiencing is NOT going well for the bears, the no coiners or the fence sitters.
Even when everything regarding ongoing and continuing BTC price UPpity moves are feeling hunky dory and rosily, my knees frequently go a wee bit wobbly when I start to exceed 60% in my assignment of odds, and surely there are circumstances that seem to justify such assignments, which surely remains my base case when I assign deadman's zone odds. So for example, I might proclaim that there are 60% to 70% odds that we just fly through noman's land without any meaningful correction.. so currently, $62k to $92k... once we get to $62k, then $92k is a done deal with 60% to 70% odds of happening, but still there are 30% to 40% odds that it is NOT a done deal. Surely, I could not even come close to 60% odds when we are reaching new price territories - such as going from $120k to $250k, unless we had already been there... then maybe I would be willing to venture something like that if such price range ends up becoming a new "deadman's zone" or "noman's land." From my assessment, $120k to $250k is not even close to that kind of a territory,
yet.
My basic reasoning is if we can make it that far past 100k, then I would think something between worldwide FOMO and a parabolic blow off are in the cards.
Fair enough. I do agree with you that our not really having much of a blow off top in this cycle, and our two 50% plus corrections in mid-2021 and early 2022, would give a lot of rational basis to the assignment of decently high odds to BTC prices moving so greatly in an upward direction for a considerable amount of price difference (percentage increase wise). I do question the assignment of 75%, rather than some lower amount, but I can see how there is some sense to that kind of an assignment once we were to get to $120k (presuming we get there in the next 6-9 months-ish... gosh, we know how the rampening of some of these blow-off tops work, in that getting to $120k could also happen sooner - such as 2-4 months... think about our April 2019 move from $4.2k to $13,880, and that 3.5x was over 3 months.)
And I would favor the former with the difference being a less violent correction after it.
I don't even know if king daddy gives any shits about your preferences because what you are saying makes sense... If the UPward BTC price movement is outrageous, and even extremely outrageous as it had been in historical cycles.. such as more than 100x in 2013 and 78x in 2017, then it seems quite rational to be experiencing extreme corrections from those kinds of price runs...
So, for example if we were to characterize 2021 as merely a 7x or a 16.5x (if we measure our starting point from $4.2k in April 2019), that level of price run surely is very small in comparison to 2013 and 2017.. and so seemingly dumb-ass wishful-thinkers who are proclaiming corrections below $20k or even down to $10k seem to be detached from bitcoin fundamentals.. sure those levels of corrections are possible, but they are not likely and it seems quite unrealistic to be giving them a lot of attention, even if they are possible.
So, I agree with your overall sentiment that the severity of any subsequent correction is likely going to be reasonably assessed based in part upon trying to figure out the level of outrageousness of the UPpity price run - in the event that we end up getting one.. and I am kind of with you that UPpity price runs are quite likely to happen, even though I remained reserved in my attempting to count upon them in any calculations of future UPpity price direction.. and I would rather consider them as icing on the cake, rather than anything that I am psychologically or financially relying upon in terms of my attempts at future BTC price probability expectations.
I think we stay volatile, but less so than in past years. Another way to say it is I see 120k+ to be a 25% chance of being the TOP in your 40% chance scenario.
I cannot disagree with those kinds of assessments either because surely we can appreciate that the severity of BTC price volatility should continue to get less and less with the increase in the market cap and with the passage of time - even though we can likely appreciate that BIGGER players are bringing more capital to the table to try to push the honey badger around and also some of the BIGGER players are also getting regulatory approval of various tools that they can attempt to nakedly manipulate BTC prices - which I am not even convinced that they are so smart that they are not going to end up recking themselves with those tools.. but still it is difficult to know about the so many tricks that are up the sleeves of some of the BIGGER players, whether we are referring to rich folks, institutions and/or governments.
