Well, the stock market is tanking, altcoins are tanking, but Bitcoin seems to still be holding up relatively well. This is either a great sign that we're still in accumulation mode and are about to see another leg up, or a bull trap with a Bart Simpson pattern in the making. Given how bad everything else is performing, I tend to think that we're seeing accumulation in Bitcoin as people still believe this is the bottom of the 4 year cycle and they need to get in while they still can. I'd been expecting a retrace, but it seems like so far it's barely fallen. It wouldn't surprise me if the next month or two saw Bitcoin rally again to $25,000.
Didn't we already have a bart pattern to the upside from $16K to $21K? It seems unlikely to occur again anytime soon. Anyhow, looking at the previous dead cat bounces since the June capitulation, price generally reversed after continuous red days (August & November), or otherwise with a big one day -10% sell off like in September. So far price remains range bound between $20.5K and $21.5K, which is good enough for me for now as it bucks the immediate trend reversal back to the downside. I think a target for a correction is somewhere between $19K and $19.5K, but it depends how we get there. If we crash hard to those levels they likely won't hold as support (200 DMA and volume support), but have we have an "orderly" correction over the coming weeks then it could well hold as a base of support, as was previous accumulation zone.
For me it's less to do with whether current local support of $20.5K holds, or whether we break to the upside of $21.5K, as I see both as unlikely for now given how oversold price remains on Daily time-frame, but more so about how we correct to the downside if we are to do so. Will buyers be slowing down the price as accumulation returns, or will sellers dominate and push prices back to the lows with relative ease?
