Same trend, different year... my interpretation of bearish market psychology right now.

Still hearing some bears talk of "happy to pay a higher price for Bitcoin" once the current trend shows strength. Because they still think price could drop to $12K or lower. While I'm not opposed to this idea, the problem is these same speculators were previously talking about being willing to pay a ~20% premium around $20K when price was around $17K, expect most of them didn't, as price was parabolic & overbought.

Now many of them are talking about being willing to pay a ~50%+ premium around $25K, once the 200 WMA is reclaimed. Again, waiting for confirmation back above this moving average isn't the worst idea, but let's first remember it's not really resistance. Price crashed through it in June as it failed to act as support, then moved back above it for a few weeks as it failed to act as resistance. It's no longer either in reality.

I can very much see the same trap developing here leaving many speculators behind. If price get's rejected by $25K and returns to $20K support levels, they will be very much vindicated. But if not, there is a big trading gap between $25K and $30K and it is more likely price will simply continue to the upside, rather than turn it into support. This will leave many to then buy back at a ~100%+ premium >$30K imo.

This might seem overly optimistic, but it would be very reminiscent of 2019. Most thought price would get rejected around $6K and therefore would be able to buy back lower, as it had been previous support for many months, but instead price broke through like a knife through butter. Maybe it was based on short liquidations, but either way it left people having to buy back at higher levels, around $7K at best.

It's not even that I think $25K won't act as resistance, I think it probably will and could create the short-term reversal back to support levels, it's simply that I don't see price turning it into support any time soon...

It sure is not easy. Of all friends/colleagues/relatives I've tried to introduce to Bitcoin, about 80% completely ignored me. Most of the remaining 20% became shitcoiners and ended up in much less profit, or even in losses. The problem everyone seems to be having with Bitcoin is that "it's too expensive...". Go figure.

I can count only 3 people that actually listened to me and currently own Bitcoin. All 3 did it because they just trust me. I don't think they really have a clue.

Strange thing, Bitcoin...

Doesn't fit their narrative! So you will never hear about this on MSM! it doesn't incite the type of hatred they are after...

 I can understand.  I talked to my friends, family and many colleagues about it - including several who came to me with questions.  I managed to get one good friend to purchase a tiny amount of bitcoin (the value of dinner and a movie for two at the time) but he sold it all the second time bitcoin went over $1k.  The only other person I know who bought some had nothing to do with my prodding; it was because his IPTV provider decided to accept only Bitcoin for payment.  There was one other guy who was always interested and would ask me about it every time I saw him but I don't think he bought.  It was always too expensive.  I just ran into him a week ago and we chatted for a bit - I told him the bottom was likely in and this was a good time to start if he hadn't already - he smiled and gave me the thumbs up so maybe he's already started and just being tight-lipped about it?  Okay, I'm just being hopeful... they're all still nocoiners  

Japan PM says country on the brink over falling birth rate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-64373950

Happy to be of assistance to about 100,000 21-25 year old Japanese females.

Just don't expect any child support. 

Enjoy the song

This will be the fate of many countries with a financial system based on growth. Unlimited growth is not possible in a limited world. Populations will shrink and the public pension scheme (yeah, some countries have such things) will collapse. Some countries try to delay this system collapse with immigration, but this creates other problems.

I suspect the climate change restrictions we will face are just an excuse for this population growth problem.

Bitcoin 2018 vs 2022:

1. 7 MA crossing 25 MA.
2. Bitcoin broke the resistance trendline.
3. End of Bear Market, bottom is in.