that's my state, when we dump into mindrust territory every 4 years
we would need to go under 39k this year for me to get stressed bigly
I think mine would be more like sub $25K, but only really based on the "where is this going" and "how long is this massive trading zone going to actually last for", also think it's pretty damn unlikely tbf.
Long time no see without having the pleasures of experiencing your Debbie downer sentiments... hahahahahahaha
Even though many of us have been surprised by our quite extensive consolidation mostly within noman's land ($55k-ish to $74k-ish
- really $80k that has not yet come), yet at the same time, we cannot really be surprised by any of the various BTC price moves, since we already know that BTC prices go up and BTC prices go down, and at the same time, they are ONLY likely to go so far down.. especially since we continue to be in a bull market.. so perhaps getting close to the 200-WMA might start to cause some concerns in regards to potentially popping out of the bull market, ye tif we don't get something that approaches the 200-WMA, the bull market is still in place.. ... and golly gee whiz dragonvslinux, we are still around 53% above the 200-WMA.. see it:
https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy... so calling for prices getting close to the 200-WMA - beyond a mere spike, seems a bit much.. .. and your suggestion of $25k would have to do with something quite outrageous.. .so you might even need to replace your $25k with a $35k, since even sub $35k is starting to seem quite outrageous since the 200-WMA is right at about $39.6k right now - which largely means int he next 10 days the 200-WMA will be crossing over $40k. .. so $35k would be nearly 12% below the 200-WMA and $25k would be nearly 38% below the 200-WMA.. so that would be like the doldrums of a bear market to get those kinds of numbers.
If it weren't for reducing some exposure at the start of the year then I think it'd be the similar if we returned to around $40K... but then again this would be at the 200 Week MA at this point so would be a great long-term buying opportunity as long as you have the dry powder available. Obviously if you don't, then I get how this would be stressful, and I'd feel stressed or frustrated if didn't have enough fiat available for that.
Surely you seem to recognize how rare it would be to visit the 200-WMA during a bull market, and we may well be driven out of the bull market.. or the dynamics might change.
Of course, I agree with your sentiment its good to try to be prepared for either BTC price direction, yet you likely realize that many of the longer term HODLers might not be giving up any corn, so sometimes end up not having too much dry powder for buying on the way down, and surely I am not going to be blaming them for ONLY having limited dry powder or even running out of dry powder for anything that even were to go into the lower $50ks.. .since I still have trouble seeing a drop to the 200-WMA. ... which actually did happen in March of 2020, so to get to the 200-WMA or close to it or to a spike down to that level, something similar to March 2020 would end up having to happen.. not out of the question, but still not something to seriously consider as being likely.. yet at the same time, I am not sure what kinds of odds to give them.. maybe less than 40% odds of going below the 200-WMA in this calendar year... not sure if I would bet though, but I would probably bet 50/50 odds.
Starting to realise this is the first time in six years I've been more chill about the market overall, sometimes not being 99% exposed is a nice feeling lol. If price reached $100K rather than say $40K next then I can imagine the feelings of greed would kick in with me thinking "why I am not 99% exposed like usual", but I think after a cycle or two you get over this need to have the maximum gain/risk possible.
I am glad
(kind of) about how happy you are to have so much dry powder.
As for current price, despite the lower highs and lower lows, the current channel over past 6 months looks very stable, even if naturally it's a downtrend, it's super orderly. Kind of reminds me of the $25K to $30K consolidation that also took 6 months before price doubled in value. This could just take another test of the lower bound of support around $50K before popping off higher (assuming we re-test support again for like the 4th time after getting rejected for a 3rd time, ie carry on with same as usual with the current ping-pong between support and resistance).
That's not that unreasonable of an assessment.. though I doubt that lower $50ks are even necessary and might not even be greater than 50/50 to happen.. but yeah there is a lot of ongoing talking down of the BTC price, even while Blackrock and some of the other ETF providers continue to suck up extra coins (I do see yesterday was a negative ETF day, but still the ETFs seem to be continuing to be buying cornz, at least their clients are).
https://farside.co.uk/btc/The potential black swan capitulation event looks more like it'd be around $43K now rather than $30K, given in a week price would have completed 6 months of consolidation, which is looking more and more bullish every month that passes. The main reason being the 200 WMA has moved up from $32K to $40K now, so while the potential for this to act as support remains the same, the support price is now considerably higher than it was 6 months ago.
Yeah, but what kinds of odds are you giving to a black swan event? couldn't be much greater than 50/50, and even that would seem a bit looney to be giving it greater than 50/50 odds... so you are talking about something that even you probably believe to be less than 40% odds (just like me), but you are seeming to suggest that it is some kind of reasonable assessment of what might happen.
If anything a return to $30K would more likely signal a much longer-term consolidation (between ~$30K and ~$60K), which wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing even if not immediately bullish.
If something like that were to last for a while it would likely knock us out of the bull market, so surely sounds like a pretty bearish assessment to be even seriously suggesting something like that might have greater than 35%-ish odds.
Generally I think this is no time to be sitting on the sidelines with high potential for further upside by the end of the year,
New ATH by the end of the year probably has greater than 50% odds. Maybe we would not break $100k, and that might only have 35%-ish odds, but it does not seem that your scenario of $30k to $60k seems very likely either...
I still say that we are still in no man's land or even don't wake me up zone, so we gotta get below $55k (and actually stay there) in order to even get knocked out of no man's land/don't wake me up zone... .. and golly gee whiz, those might not even be higher than 50% odds, and you are here talking up your down book as if down has higher odds than up, so you seem to disagree with the thesis that we are still in a bull market.. since you know it seems that in a bull market the odds for up are greater than the odds for down, even if it is ONLY 51/49.. .not that I am a guy who goes too far out there in regards to my own anticipations.
but also not necessarily the time to be "all in" at current prices like it was in September/October 2020 when it looked like price was going to explode to the upside before it predictably did.
Yeah, you seem to be saying that we are somewhere in early 2020 rather than late 2020, even though I would consider that we are probably closer to late 2020 rather than early 2020.. and the odds are probably greater than 50/50 that I am correct... even though I am not that wedded to it.
Chances are those of don't have enough coin will load up in the low 50s as they have been for months already, while those who aren't in need of more coins will take average in the low 40s, just because of the low risk high reward possibilities long-term. If you have more of a 10-year outlook, rather than say 4-year, then maybe you'd be waiting for low 30s instead.
That's retarded... waiting as an investment strategy.. yet sure, I understand that the more coins that any of us might happen to have, then the less likely that we are in any kind of an urgent state to buy more BTC, absent some significant drop in BTC price, if such a thing were to happen... but yeah, your various price points about lower 50ks versus lower 40ks versus lower 30ks.. seem like a bit of a fantasy... and maybe lower 50ks might be 50%-ish odds - perhaps even less than that, lower $40ks might be 35%-ish odds and lower $30ks may well be less than 26% odds.. .and yeah, if guys already have coins, then they don't give too many shits, yet with BTC price drops beyond certain levels (if they were to play out?), some guys might become more motivated to pick up some extra coins.
[edited out]
............If we dropped to 39k it would be under my buy steps downwards.
I have powder to buy at lower numbers. buy low buys go to 42k at the moment .
Just not sure I would want to set. say 38k 35k 30k as lower steps.
I don't have any problem keeping my buy orders below the 200-WMA even as the 200-WMA continues to move up.. , and so yeah when the BTC price is moving down, it can seem kind of debatable how low to keep buy orders in order to keep buying..
With you Phil, we have already heard that you continue to buy as the BTC price goes down, but if it goes below your buy orders then you start to sell.. and start recommending T-bills.
hahahahahaha
So, any serious bitcoiner shouldn't be asking you what to do.
There's only ONE name for this month:
Uptober!
Yeah.. hahahaha
Two days into the month and guys proposing the change the name of the month.
