Let's not forget that the money inflow needed to lift our number by 7x is not the same as it was: it depends on the price when the liftoff starts. I'm not saying that 7x in a few months is out of the realm of what's possible, but only that it's not the most likely course. I wouldn't mind a short term (2025) 3x-4x to be honest, which appears to have higher chances, based on sophisticated SOMA models.
Gosh your "most-likely case" seems quite bearish
like you need a slap.. .. .hhahahahaha.... to snap you out of it since you seem to recognize (and poo poo) that the 7x expectations from here are considerations of the ending point of this particular cycle.. .which could be through 2025 and it is possible that it could linger into 2026 (though not seemingly likely.. but who knows?).
Don't get me wrong. I am not opposed to conservative scenarios, but labelling conservative scenarios as "the most likely" seems a wee bit presumptuous.
I actually said it's _not_ the most likely.
Oh? My bbbbbbbbbaaaaaaaaaaadddddddd.
I am too busy trying to criticize others (including but not limited to uie pooie) that I forgot to read the actual post.
hahahaha.. yet when I go back and reread the post. I still believe that I was commenting on what you said, even though surely if we are proclaiming something to be the most likely scenario or we are proclaiming something to not be the most likely scenario, it might be confusing what is being said.. since there might be a lot of variations of scenarios and then the most likely scenario might stand out, yet there might be various scenarios that are still close competitors with the scenario that is considered to be the most likely, so in some sense there could end up being every scenario except for the most likely scenario would not be the most likely scenario, even if some of the scenarios might be close (in terms of odds) to the most likely scenario.
Can you provide an example of a different scenario (event) that you would characterize as MOAR likely than pulling a 7x within, say, 2025 or "until the top", whenever we might stipulate this bull's done?
I wasn't proposing anything myself. I was just attempting to criticize your proposal or your
not proposal.
hahahaha
That's what I do.
That's how I roll. I enjoy criticizing others.
After all of these years hanging out around these here parts, hadn't you noticed?
Maybe if I had read your post correctly (or maybe I did read it correctly? I am not even sure by this point), I could have been largely arguing about semantics, since when I attempt to propose a base case, then I would propose the base case as having the best odds out of any of the other possible scenarios. The various possible cases might be expressed within a price range within a certain period of time.. nothing too exact, and yet the base case might still ONLY add up to 35%-ish odds as compared with other possible scenarios that might have lower odds.
I have not really plotted out my various scenarios within any kind of meaningful particulars for this cycle, even though there were several times earlier in the year (I cannot remember exactly when (maybe around the time that we were reaching an ATH in March-ish or sometimes soon thereafter when there was still plenty of time in the year). I recall saying that I expected BTC prices to bounce somewhere into the $120k to $180k range within 2024 and then for 2025 to have a higher ATH price than 2024, yet I had not really dared to get more specific with that, and surely with ONLY 2.5 months left in 2024, I am no longer very confident in regards to my earlier anticipation of what I thought to have pretty good odds when I asserted it (perhaps SOMA?) in the earlier part of the year when there still might have had been 7-9 months still remaining in the year.
I am kind of riddled with questions in regards to how much UP we might be able to get during this cycle, yet I still I cannot imagine that at this time, my various BTC price scenarios (along with their probability assignments and their ranges) are very much different from the Upside scenarios that I described in one of my December 2021 posts (see
this one)..
Sure maybe I can go through and tweak those ones that I had made in December 2021, yet I still have not gotten around to being incentivized to do it.
If you perchance might look at my December 2021 outline of scenarios and percentages, do you believe that there is some kind of a need for me to tweak my general ideas of where the BTC price could possibly end up going in this cycle? whether we are referring to the period through 2025 or whether we might consider that this cycle could possibly be able to leak into 2026? Sure, we could not be in the exact same place as we were in late 2021 since we are nearly three years later, and quite a bit has happened in the last 3 years...but still we are bouncing around a similar BTC price range as we were bouncing around in late 2021.
The simple complementary event "anything but 7x" doesn't qualify as particularly fair. On the other hand, asking for both a number and a time interval begs for soothsaying, which is not your forte or even something you seem to condone too much.
Sure that's fair. It becomes problematic when any of us assign too high of a probability to specifics when it comes to both date and time, yet surely normies do tend to gravitate towards speaking in absolutes, so I cannot completely blame people for talking in some level of absolutes, and I think that we all do those kinds of things, which surely can be problematic when folks might latch onto a date and time.. and also another thing is that when any of us might talk about price ranges and even date ranges, then people might lose confidence in our waffling kinds of proclamations that might come off as vague, and surely many of us are bullish about bitcoin, including that we expect bitcoin to directionally be going up, yet we cannot really have a lot of confidence that it will go up in the short-term and we also cannot even have a lot of confidence that the BTC price is going to be greater at various timelines down the road, whether we are referring to 1 year from now or 2 years, or 3 years or 4 years or some further date, even though we still could be willing to invest time, energy and value into bitcoin under a general belief that bitcoin's asymmetric bet to the upside continues to be decently strong as compared with other places that we could put our time, energies and value..
Thoughts? Anything workable comes to mind?
I would not mind to hear your thoughts. For example, if you look at my December 2021 post in regards to upside scenarios, I would not mind hearing what you think about the odds for various of those upside scenarios playing by either the end of 2025 or perhaps by no later than mid-2026.
Sure, I personally would like to have upside scenarios to come to fruition, yet my live is not really very bad right now with my BTC portfolio bouncing around in the last 24 hours or so in around 65x or 66x profits (that is if I might tentatively calculate my costs per BTC to be around $1k per BTC)... So surely if the BTC price goes up then maybe my BTC portfolio could end up in 120x to 180x profits rather than a mere 65x/66x.
Surely Up is better than down, even though for me, down would not be the end of the world, even though for many of us, there are thoughts that sooner or later the bottom is in and we have been range bound in "noman's land"/"Don't wake me up zone" (arguably $55k-ish to $74k-ish) for long enough... and at some point there are no more willing sellers, and are "they" just making shit up in regards to coins being sold? or are there really so many coins being sold at these prices? Sure we had the German coins and some of the MTGOX coins and the GBTC coins moving from Grayscale's custody and into the custody of various other spot ETF providers. So yeah, sometimes it can be difficult to know for sure where all of the sellers are coming from? and they are going to run out, no?
For me (and probably for several others of us who are longer term holders), we may well get a thrill out of the BTC price going shooting up perhaps 2x or 3x from here, and then if there might be some 3rd party custodians who don't have the BTC that they claim to have, then that could become interesting to see those kinds of dynamics play out (if such a thing is possible), and surely others talk about gamma squeezes that could end up happening, and I am not really sure how far a gamma squeeze (whatever the fuck that might be) could take the BTC price before perhaps some of the older time BTC holders might start to release some of their coins.. .. maybe we could get a 3x to 5x from here in a short period of time (such as 3-6 months), and I am not sure if that would qualify as a gamma squeeze or if a higher amount of BTC price appreciation might be plausible to play out in such a "gamma squeeze" scenario, if such a thing even means anything beyond what bitcoin does from time to time in regards to various step-ups that we witness in bitcoin's price in which the BTC price does not return back down to the earlier layer.
I would shake hands and be delighted if we even do 50% of that kind of move.
Half as much (3.5x) seems more doable to me (event with higher probability). Not signing in blood ink for that myself, though.
Well I had personally mentioned that it is a bit different to consider if we are talking about BTC price moves from our current price as if our current price would be a reasonable base location to bounce off from, or if it might be more reasonable to consider $27k-ish as our base? I gravitate towards using $27k as the base jumping off place in regards to figuring out what kind of multiples and/or magnitudes of BTC price increases might be considered to be reasonable and/or plausible.
Under 3.5x? Over 7x + 3.5x = 10x? Over 7x * 2?
I understand that you are mentioning various scenarios going from our current BTC price, and sure no problem. It still seems to justify clarifying your own thoughts if you were to plug them into a range of BTC prices and then assign probabilities to each of the scenarios.
Other than that, can you see any conservative scenarios (more likely if at all possible) in the room with us?
I am pretty sure that you are responding to LFC rather than this here cat, yet that never stopped me from responding previously. Conservative scenarios take the 200-WMA (which is current at about $40k) and then perhaps adds 20% per year onto that.. but then in terms of the spot price, then maybe we also would get 20% per year from here. That would be pretty conservative, and perhaps we would expect BTC to outperform our conservative case, yet we still cannot presume that even our conservative case will be reached.
Bat slap accepted
Shaking hands, this is delight
Bear apologies
#haiku
You may as well just suck up the punishment, and maybe part of the punishment in regards to attempting to make any kind of prediction about the BTC price in the future is going to result in some kind of backlash? If you did not get any backlash, then you might start to wrongly conclude that nobody cares about what you say. And, everybody knows that "we" care what you say.
Speaking of everybody knows... It might not hurt for me to place a link about the various things that everybody knows, especially since it may have been a while since "we" were reminded about the various things that everybody knows..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xu8u9ZbCJgQ67K in one hour confirmed
Frequently, when you say these kinds of things, they do not end up happening. Your success rate might be around 10% give or take 5%.
A nice price action...
Yesterday, Ben Cowen showed the last three halving years..in all three it was pretty much up only from Oct to Dec.
If politics cooperate, it just might happen again.
I had the most 'pleasure' during one post-halving year, though,..2017, when it ripped from around a thou during spring all the way to almost 20K late in the year.
THAT was unbelievable.
Now, I don't feel like we have any clue as to what might happen, albeit MSTR declined today after an initial pop.
Maybe it would cool off for a bit, but bitcoin can still rip up regardless.
Is 3-3.5X possible? You betcha... with 7X-possible in a rare case of confluence of many factors that could appear paradoxical, initially.
IMHO, the giant rip up in 2017 was based on the fact that bitcoin successfully fought off the cabal that tried to tame it by imposing a larger block size (needless to say that "the cabal' was supported by largest corporate players at the time).
Can bitcoin fight off something now when it seems to be progressively integrated into the fin system?
Maybe..., but only in a case of a bond market "hiccup", which I do not wish for.
Imho, apart from that, it is difficult to see 7X from here in a short order..., but by 2028..sure.
I appreciate most of your post, but still:
1) no link for the Ben Cowen charts? You must be slacking. You expect us to have to Google search for that charts presentation that you could have had easily provided?
2) Why are we talking about 2028? don't we have to go one cycle at a time? Wouldn't you consider that we are still in the midst of a cycle? So you are suggeting that from here we get something in the ballpark of 3-3.5x (which yeah is $180k to $230k-ish) and then we correct back down to some place (maybe $70-$90k or perhaps we don't break back below $100k, yet that would be difficult to believe if we ONLY get up to upper $100ks or lower $200ks.. or maybe some other place? and then after we spend a bit of time consolidating in the sub $100ks and perhaps evenin the supra $100ks (but lower end), then we make another run for UPpity that would bring us up into the $360k to $500k price territory by 2028-ish? Maybe 2029? Those are somewhat bearish scenarios that seem to presume the disappearance of blow off tops, and surely we seem to have had experienced a somewhat stifled blow off top in 2021, yet does that really justify the disappearance of blow off tops in bitcoinlandia?
Are you really buying the mainstream media and/or perhaps the status quo financial pundits proclaiming that the various tools that they are putting into place - connected to bitcoin are going to be successful in terms of "taming" our lillie fiend? I am not opposed to the idea that such a thing could happen, yet I am not going to buy tame/stable as if it were a base case scenario and that blow off tops have disappeared (gone extinct) in this here asset class, which I remind you is not like any other asset class known to man, and likely is still in relatively early stages of adoption, which suggests that dee cornz is still a very immature asset class, even though from my perspective (for whatever that is worth?) you seem to be presuming some level of maturity within it.
Sure you might end up being correct, yet I would prefer you wipe that smugness off your face.. hahahahhahaha.. and get serious about dee cornz.
Look in the mirror at least 5 times per day, and repeat some kind of mantra: "I am going to stop being whimpy in regards to my bitcoin assessments and my bitcoin-related actions." Then try to do what you say and say what you do. You will thank me later.
If you had not noticed, that is a protip. Which is the next pause¡ 100k??
If you had not noticed, our "pause" is currently at
$66,479...
another protip.. I am on a roll.Which is the next pause¡ 100k??
I'm not sure where the next break might be. I think Bitcoin is on the way to breaking records, approaching new highest to be! This shows that it is getting more value and can go further than what we have seen before. But it will matter the most if you or I can be fully prepared to see your Bitcoin hit new heights.
Then what you going to do?
Lets say that the BTC price hits $73,795 or maybe even a bit higher within the next month or two or three, then what are you going to do?
I see that you, MrNata have been registered on the forum since early March 2024, so have you been buying BTC since then? Did you start buying BTC prior to March 2024? Did you front load your investment or did you DCA?
And look, coinlary has around 4 months forum seniority over you. Perhaps the same questions should be applied to coinlary? Have you been accumulating BTC coinlary, and if so for how long and what kind of BTC accumulation methods have you been employing?
I have trouble considering very many scenarios in which a person of less than a year or two of buying BTC would be prepared to start to sell BTC or maybe such persons might want to continue to buy, yet of course, devil is in the details in regards to whether either of you might have had been able to front load your BTC investment as compared with some others who might have been accumulating BTC through ongoing buying of it.. such as DCAing into it. But hey, it is your story, and pray tell. What are you going to do if the BTC price goes up rather than staying flat and/or going down? do you (either of you) have enough BTC, yet?
A wonderful sight,
Aboard the rocket in flight,
Blinded by green light!
Destination, moon.
Crystal Ball says next year, June.
We'll all be there soon!
Bravo to you, Phil.
You may be over the hill,
But few have your skill!
#3happyrhyminghaikus
First: What is moon in June? Is this financial advice?
Second: #asking for a friend: What skill does our dear precious Phil have? I have a few ideas, such as choosing (and propagandizing when) to invest in government bonds and/or other cash-related products? .. ok. o.k.. am I being too mean.. I would not want to presume too much in regards to the reference of "skill".
Anyone?
Anyone?
[edited out]
Enter the good times
Uptober delivers climbs,
nice haikus and rhymes
#haveanicegreenday
I am thinking that we are getting close to being right about the middle of October, and perhaps "we" are in the ballpark of flat right now (as I type this post) in regards to Uptober prices and in regards to where we are at right now as compared with where the month started..
At the same time, I will reiterate that our current price is not really UP nor DOWN in terms of monthly happenings in bitcoinlandia, even though the very beginning of Uptober delivered to BTC HODLers the opposite up (which may well have meant, opportunities to buy more cornz).. and so now, currently, our lil precious is back to a seemingly neutral position.
I am not even sure that I would go beyond 50/50 guidelines when it comes to what might happen throughout the remaining of Uptober - except to suggest that "we" are still in the middle of "no man's land"/"don't wake me up zone," and we also seem to
still be in a bull market which had started about mid-November 2022-ish, so there is a bit of a presumption that the odds for up remain greater than the odds for down, even though who really knows about the short term with any kind of certainty, such as the next 16-ish days that are within a month in which people consider that king daddy might give some shits in regards to what month we happen to be in?
** **Am I being a party poop? #asking for a friend.