Something interesting...MSTR is up 14% today while bitcoin is up 6.2%.
Overall, MSTR owns 15.85 bil worth of bitcoin, almost all on borrowed money (spent 9.9 bil), but has a valuation of 42.26 bil, which is 2.67X their bitcoin value.
Essentially, at the current MSTR price, it would be at NAV when btc is at $167.6K.
Therefore, does MSTR, in fact, point to a current "expectation" of the near term btc price?
Maybe, but 2.67X is somewhat crazy...maybe someone is gamma -squeezing it's stock?
Perhaps the best play would be to own bitcoin and 'short" MSTR using 2Xbearish MSTR ETF (MSTZ).
This ETF completely crated lately, perhaps indicating a bargain?
In any case, imho, it could be used for hedging your long btc position and nothing else, essentially.
Not an investment advice!
I would be very careful shorting MSTR. I agree its overly heated up, and a short tern play might work... but when Bitcoin takes off MSTR is going with it.
Also not investment advice as I have no idea what I am talking about.