Something interesting...MSTR is up 14% today while bitcoin is up 6.2%.
Overall, MSTR owns 15.85 bil worth of bitcoin, almost all on borrowed money (spent 9.9 bil), but has a valuation of 42.26 bil, which is 2.67X their bitcoin value.
Essentially, at the current MSTR price, it would be at NAV when btc is at $167.6K.
Therefore, does MSTR, in fact, point to a current "expectation" of the near term btc price?
Maybe, but 2.67X is somewhat crazy...maybe someone is gamma -squeezing it's stock?
Perhaps the best play would be to own bitcoin and 'short" MSTR using 2Xbearish MSTR ETF (MSTZ).
This ETF completely crated lately, perhaps indicating a bargain?
In any case, imho, it could be used for hedging your long btc position and nothing else, essentially.
Not an investment advice!
You are not the first coming up with this idea. I wonder how Kerrisdale is doing with MSTR at a fresh ATH.
https://www.kerrisdalecap.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/MicroStrategy-MSTR.pdfWell, the strategies outlined were different: he was talking about actually
shorting MSTR and I was describing buying the 2X reverse ETF (that would increase 2x the MSTR's presumable decline toward NAV).
That said, it is entirely possible that btc would go to 150-160K shortly and close the NAV gap for MSTR.
It's just paying 2.6-2.7 bucks NOW for something that has $1 value strikes me as an aberration or collective insanity, but, sure, it might continue for a while.
However, as the link you posted suggests, the NAV gap would most likely to halve toward 1.3X.
Today, buying MSTR at $212.5 is essentially the same as voluntarily paying $155K for 1 btc.
The enterprise value of MSTR (non-bitcoin part) is about $10/share (as it was at this level, split adjusted, for years before trasformation to bitcoin holding company)
Finally, it was just a theoretical construct...I remain just long btc and ignore MSTR "funnies" for now.
