JayJuanGee
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Activity: 4242
Merit: 13171
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to "non-custodial"
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May 19, 2025, 02:00:31 AM
Last edit: May 19, 2025, 03:02:08 PM by JayJuanGee Merited by fillippone (3), vapourminer (1) |
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Fuck shitcoins in ass.
Do not be too retarded.
Haiku anyone?
A haiku by JJG is something that is rarely seen. As if it were not enough, this one contains 4-letter words in 3-letter words! I am sooo surprised to hear such dirty baddie language from ooie pooie And so pleased!  Yeah.. maybe I have ONLY done a handful of haikus in my life, so far. d_Eddie Is almost certainly right. We're probably still dealing with standard physics here, but probabilities are probabilities.
And the freaking box is opened. And who knows whats in it? I don't.
Will bitcoin survive this? Will it survive shit on the blockchain? Will it survive miners with terrible incentives and who are bad actors? Will it survive all the people that want to kill it?
You know what's crazy is I don't think it has to survive smart people nearly as much as it has to survive all the rest us dumbasses. Only speaking for myself here.
I've begun to think that the extent to which the game theory was thought through on this, there are so few minds that could have done it.
Over the years, I've had people that I thought were Satoshi... for a minute Adam.. for some time, Hal And then Nick Szabo just seemed right.
But over this last year, I've been reading the white papers and studying interviews and listening to the talks of the "beautiful mind"...
I read somewhere recently that during some of the years that John Nash was institutionalized for his paranoid schizophrenia... (someone kicked he hornets nest...) He taught himself programming. I believe specifically C++. It was a way to find some peace in his madness at the time. I need to verify this, I'm not sure.
He was a soft, spoken, quirky, very eccentric fellow. I believe the last paper he wrote on money was called "Asymptotic Ideal Money." He often talked about how this would change the world, how it would possibly even end the state's ability to do war. Same as what Henry Ford foretold.
Anyway, who knows, maybe just a romantic notion. I tend to those kinds of things, super cycles and all.
I've been seeing a lot of chatter in the world of high-end finance about the trillions of dollars that are expected to start moving into Bitcoin, particularly as it becomes more and more available from a regulatory sense.
Whoever designed it and whoever the current adversaries are, whether they know it or not, hopefully that brilliant game theory can hold up through what's to come. It's not going to be simple, that's for sure.
But the cat is most certainly out of the bag... or the box... or something.
I knew all along we'd be here, and today I can't believe it. I can't believe it at all.
From time to time, I have heard discussions about John Nash potentially being Satoshi, but it has been a while since I heard it discussed.. for example in January on Robin Seyr's podcast, he had a guest talking about evidence of John Nash as Saotshi. Maybe some of the information in that podcast will be helpful to you? [edited out]
More uppity please. Then JayJuanGee will not curse. Or will... But in joy! I deny being disgruntled about our recent sideways, even our 4-ish month long dip (consolidation). It is hard to be disgruntled when a person's profits went from 109x and dipped down to 74x is and then are coming back in the ballpark of 104x to 107x... It is hard to complain, and I think that I am able to implement more time-based sustainable withdrawal, even though price-based sustainable withdrawal has been working for me too... so why change something that is already working. By the way, a couple of weeks ago, I posted about a transfer of money situation that I was facing, and generally when I try to transfer money from one exchange to another, I attempt to do it in a budget neutral way, so that I don't really care if the matter is resolved to the upside or the downside, no matter which way the BTC price moves, the money transfer dilemma will end up getting resolved.. and even though I was thinking that my dilemma would get resolved either to the downside or with a combination of downside and upside, yet so far it has ONLY been resolving to the upside. So I needed to have four orders in total for the total transfer to take place, and so far three of the four orders have filled, and so far they have all been to the upside.. none to the downside, yet, and now all I have is one order remaining. Here's the relevant portion of my previous post on the topic: oh I grabbed a piece of corn at 93.7k
I had to reset some of my buy and sell orders in order to move money from one location to another (and/or to rebalance), so I was contemplating whether I should change my intervals and/or increments and/or the amounts, so currently I have a pretty decently-sized spread between my buys and sells that are in the ballpark of $7k.. even though my increments are currently around $3k, so in that sense, it takes longer for the orders to fill, or to flip from selling to buying or from buying to selling.. but my spreads have been around $7k for a while and even when we spent most of 2024 between $50k and $70k, it seems that my spreads were similar amounts (though surely my memory may well be fading.. I would have to go back and look at the specifics).
So for me, ever since January I started buying from around $101k (although I did have a few that were above that price point, I think that $105k was my highest), so then the next buys down were $98k, $95k, $92k, $89k, $86k, $83k, $80k, $77k, and I cannot recall any of my $74k orders filling, so far (and perhaps they never will)..
Of course, I had some sell orders fill.. starting at around $81k, then $84k, $87k, $90k, $93k, $96k.. .
So right now my next buy orders are actually $92k, and my next sell orders are $99k, $102k, $106k, $109k, $112k etc.
To make an initial resolve, my moving of balances from one location to another, I ONLY need two orders to fill on the way down or two orders to fill on the way up or it could be a combination of those.. yet I am also attempting a bit of more of a rebalancing that has currently set 4 on the way down, and 3 orders on the way up.. I have not figured out exactly how the numbers will end up playing out, so I just wait until they execute, either on the way up or the way down or some combination of both to see if I have achieved a sufficient level of rebalancing to satisfy my bitcoin versus dollars and where those bitcoin versus dollars are located. Maybe we could label what I am doing as arbitrage, but I am not really attempting to take advantage of any differences in prices, so the amounts that I am using is pretty much the same as they used to be, but just changing the amounts on each of the locations.
For example, let's say that each of my BTC buy/sell orders were $1k. And so if I were to be working with three exchanges in order to transfer from one exchange to the two other exchanges, my current BTC sell orders and my current BTC buy orders are $1k each on each of the exchanges, and so the totals are $3k for each of the price increments (whether buying and/or selling in this example). For illustrative (and attempts at clarity) purposes, I will plot it out.
Prior to the adjustment the values might look like this:
Price Buy Exchange 1 Exchange 2 Exchange 3
$92,222.22 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00
$89,222.22 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00
$86,222.22 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00
$83,222.22 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00
$80,222.22 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00
Price Sell Exchange 1 Exchange 2 Exchange 3
$98,888.88 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00
$101,888.88 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00
$105,444.44 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00
$109,888.88 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00
$113,444.44 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00
After Adjustment the values might look like this:
Price Buy Exchange 1 Exchange 2 Exchange 3
$92,222.22 $2,000.00 $500.00 $500.00
$89,222.22 $2,000.00 $500.00 $500.00
$86,222.22 $2,000.00 $500.00 $500.00
$83,222.22 $2,000.00 $500.00 $500.00
$80,222.22 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00
Price Sell Exchange 1 Exchange 2 Exchange 3
$98,888.88 $400.00 $1,300.00 $1,300.00
$101,888.88 $400.00 $1,300.00 $1,300.00
$105,444.44 $400.00 $1,300.00 $1,300.00
$109,888.88 $400.00 $1,300.00 $1,300.00
$113,444.44 $1,000.00 $1,000.00 $1,000.00
Essentially, I am moving dollars (right around $4,000 in the example) from Exchange 1 to Exchanges 2 and 3, and at the same time I am moving bitcoin (the equivalent of $4k in bitcoin at whatever price is sells or is bought at) from Exchanges 2 & 3 to Exchange 1. Of course, if I were to want to try to gamble a bit, I could adjust the size of the buy and/or sell orders at each of the price points, yet in this particular example (and in my real life situation) at each price point, I decided to keep the totals the same.
So in the example, the totals remain $3k for each of the price increments in which the buy orders or the sell orders are reached (my real life amounts vary for each price, but it may not matter, and surely in my examples, I use $1k for each of the orders because it is relatively easy to calculate)...
If I were to want to adjust to my level of bearishness or bullishness, then if I were to be feeling more bullish, then I might sell less bitcoin and set the buy orders higher or if I am feeling more bearish, then I might set the sell orders higher and put the buy orders lower.
Right now, in real life (and in this example) since I am largely happy where I am at (except for a preference to rebalance and to move value from one exchange to other exchanges), I personally prefer keeping matters the same, yet, even if I were to make changes, I tend to prefer small tweaks rather than bigger tweaks to any changes to my overall BTC portfolio management practices.. during the times that I become inclined to tweak any of my amounts and/or my increments.
During the period that I am waiting to figure out which direction my buy/sell orders will end up executing, once my buy orders or my sell orders execute then each time one executes, then in order to keep my BTC versus dollar ratio amounts more or less equal to what they would have had been absent the movement of the value from one exchange to the others, I will have to adjust on the other end, so in this example, if the BTC price ends up going down to $83,222.22 or lower then all of the sell orders will end up resolving back to the status that they had prior to the adjustment, and so all of the matters are resolved if the BTC price goes down 4 orders or on the other hand it will also resolve if the BTC price ends up going up to fill my 4 adjusted sell orders, yet if it ends up ONLY going half way, then it ends up ONLY being half resolved, so if for example, the BTC price only ends up going down to $89,222.22 in this example, then ONLY two of the higher level sell orders would end up getting reverted back to their original amounts, yet at the same time, if the price were to go up, after going down to $89,222.22 in this example, then it would only need to sell two of the upper orders to resolve the whole transfer matter, and in this case, if two buy orders were to resolve, then I would end up setting two new sell orders at $95,888.88 and $92,888.88 respectively. I personally am considering myself to be neutral and everything is likely resolved with 4 orders whether they are 4 orders up or down or a combination of up and/or down in any direction or order.
So, it can be exciting to figure out which one(s) are going to fill first, yet at the same time, there is a certain emotional neutrality to the matter, and sure it could take months or even years for the matter to resolve, yet I have my doubts, and it seems that bitcoin ends up being so inevitably volatile that the matter is going to resolve in one direction or another sooner rather than later.. yet there are no guarantees, and perhaps if after several months, the matter has not resolved (and if the BTC price were to get stuck between $92,222.22 and $98,888.88 (or thereabouts like in my example), then I might need to resort towards taking some actions that would cause results sooner, if I were to get worried about the timeline in which the transfer/adjustment resolves itself through BTC price moves. |
