1. We are at least one month deeper into the bull run at a point where it could be over, theoretically. I don't believe that it is over, personally.
Not that important because the cycles are not identical to the day.
2. The "event" showed that there is not much liquidity in the market. At first, when I looked at just bitcoin, I though that it was just a garden variety dip, but later, it seemed that non-bitcoin market was absolutely devastated with declines between 60 and 90%. Defi seemed to be much affected. Uniswap went to $2 or something like that. On one of the markets for leverage trading 10 "whales" with >30mil $$ positions for each were completely wiped out. Overall liquidation losses exceeded $19bil while during COVID crash, liquidation losses were "just" $1.5bil.
The liquidity is on the sidelines mostly in stablecoins and retail is too poor this time and is not around. Further, many coins now have liquid staking and borrow and lending protocols. This was not true before. These create a catastrophic intensification of the liquidations. Once people reach liquidation thresholds the protocols start dumping positions automatically and this makes the whole panic worse. This again leads to more liquidations and it repeats itself massively in a short time frame.
This is why we have Bitcoin and the rest are shitcoins.
The main point of Bitcoin is deflationary monetary policy where every 4 years, Bitcoin reward is halved in halving. Supply decreases and demand increases, price increases. As a result, human psychology repeats itself.
after every halving First, disbelief, the price is increasing but no one thinks it is safe..
While it does have some benefit the newly generated supply is so low that it is irrelevant to the market. This is not what drives the price up. The massive money printing of fiat is what drives it up. Bitcoin is the only decentralized and fixed-supply currency and asset in the world. There is nothing like it and there never will be. 450 coins per day is nothing compared to a circulating supply of 20 million.
