I will be happy if we are over 120k on Jan 1.  yeah 130 or 150 or 200 would be nicer

I can not cash in large amounts this year due to tax issues so I have to wait tll Jan 1 or later.

I need to cash at least 35k in coin next year to cover expenses.

And the extra income will hurt me  tax wise if I do that this year.

There is nothing wrong with being conservative in your attempts at your own management of your bitcoin holdings, including the likelihood that you don't want to get overly excited by having expectations that are way too high.

I can understand that.

At the same time, so far in bitcoin's history, the 200-WMA continues to move up, and historically, whenever we ended up hitting the 200-WMA with the price, it tended to be 6 months or longer after the ATH, and those ATH's had tended to be several multiples higher than the 200-WMA by the time that the ATH was in, so in 2017 the high spot price was around 14x higher than the 200-WMA and in late 2021, the high was around 4x higher than the 200-WMA (the early 2021 price was around 4.5x higher than the 200-WMA).

Another thing is that the BTC price did not tend to go below the 200-WMA, except for flash crash situations,  except for the period between June 2022 until October 2023, in which we spent a lot of time below the 200-WMA while the 200-WMA moved from $22k at the beginning of that 16 month period and ended slightly higher than $27k at the end of that 16 month period, and of course the worst of the BTC prices ended up being right around 35% lower than the 200-WMA in November 2022.

This cycle, so far, we have not had BTC prices that have gotten much higher than 2.5x higher than the 200-WMA... so the top has not been so extreme to justify as great of a correction, even though surely shenanigans can happen, so I am not ruling out great levels of correction, even though it seems a bit improbable to be expecting those levels of correction - especially guys selling and expecting to be able to buy back at those kinds of low prices.

It is probably healthy for you to not let your expectations get to high, but you still have to calculate that the 200-WMA is a moving target, and in order to have 20% below the 200-WMA to equal $43k-ish, you have to go with today's 200-WMA, and do you really think that the odds are very good that the BTC price would go shooting straight down within a very short period of time in order to make that 20% below the 200-WMA as feasible?  You are describing a quite outrageous scenario, even though surely I still have buy orders down to about $32k. .so yeah, maybe yu could refer to me as a bit overprotective, too.. I just hate running out of money when the price goes shooting down

I might even be willing to give you odds on anything below $53k... even though my current outstanding proposal for a 50/50 bet is that the price is never going below $80k, and I would probably like consession that I had won the bet if the BTC price goes above $300k before the end of 2027. .


Sure, any of us would agree that higher is better, and $138k is surely not unreasonable as a top for this cycle. I am going to stick with my expectation of $180k even though it is seeming a bit pie in the sky in recent times, but I am not expecting that the cycle top has to happen during the 2025 calendar year.


You feeling lucky, punk?

I had to throw that in there.

 

You are right. In fact, if a large amount of leverage is removed, the price can increase due to a short squeeze or liquidation cascade. And investment in global EFT  is increasing. Which is pushing the market up again. I think Bitcoin will go around $140k by the end of this year.

They might bring it down to achieve a double bottom at, hopefully, higher than $102K (higher low).
A weak sauce bounce so far, anyway.

People throw around numbers that are either too low, if the bull market continues, or too high if it would not.
If Oct10 was just a bull market reset, then we would need to go much higher (at least 50% higher to 150-155K or even higher from the lows) and if it was a start of the bear, then it is unlikely to go up much more above 126K, or maybe 130K max.

In effect, anyone who mentions 130K actually thinks that the bull market is essentially over.
A small overshoot often happens-like in Nov 2021 when the stronger top was in April at, maybe, 3-4K lower and at 68.9K, the bull was exhausted and the peak lasted a very short time.

the % of retail investors is not a joke. they are essentially the most important group that is making the transition to BTC eco-system.

most noobs who try to get along with vets posing as knowledgeable and such and those who run x and youtube channels promising an easy life.

i will tell you something that ive learned throughout the years. Even the best strategy can never predict since market is just a chart of real events of tx.

if you do it properly you can have a small edge. that is all. trading is a very risky game. We ve seen it last night - the news of suicide.

Philipma1957 also has the same opinion when i asked him for a dex platform.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

You won't rule off the possibility of achieving the $150k for the year completely because same way bitcoin snapped negatively, it could also go the other way. Bitcoin volatility can be quick and can also be slow. So it won't be a good thing to concentrate on the present condition and forget that there are still months to go before the year runs out. October speculation still has it that bitcoin would reach $20k by 15th and may close in near the ATH by ending of the month. So I don't think there's need for panic, it's still a buying time. Even though I understand that with your days in bitcoin investment, you might have been close to your accumulation target if not achieved yet. You won't be discouraged with bitcoin this year because it's also beneficial to some beginners who just got into bitcoin and have been buying through the year.

I’ll buy some back if we enter a deep, depressing bear market but I just expected a lot better this year, you know.

I have accepted diminishing returns as adoption increases. That’s to be expected, we are not at a $100M market-cap any more. This year has been particularly disappointing though.

Bitcoin retired me before age 40. I am so grateful for how life turned out for me. Would I see Bitcoin as the best asset to invest in right now, if I was a newbie with <1BTC? I have to be honest, my answer is a strong no.

So personally, I am still heavily in Bitcoin, most of my net worth is in it. I would be looking elsewhere if I was a young guy without any Bitcoin though.

That is a big call but I can't blame you for saying it. Gold has been smashing Bitcoin for sometime now, stocks too, and it doesn't seem like that is changing.

Are people selling Bitcoin for gold, probably. One thing is certain though, nations are buying gold, not Bitcoin. I have gold but like you I am mostly in Bitcoin, I should probably be upping my gold and lowering my Bitcoin allocation.